How likely is it that Democrats win 3-4 consecutive terms in the White House?

[Ferguson97]

If Democrats win 2020, 2024, and 2028 the Republican President in 2032 is going to have 65 Senate seats.

No?

Yes.
Let us suppose that Republicans win 2032 by 3, 2030 by 5, and lose 2028 by 4.
Among the Class 2 Seats, elected in 2032, they split 25R-8D.

Among the Class 1 Seats, elected in 2030, they split 21R-12D

Among the Class 3 Senate Seats, elected in 2028, they split 19R-15D

Thus the Senate splits 65R-35D.

You're making a lot of assumptions here. Give me every Senate map from 2020 to 2032 so I can get where you're coming from.

[YE]

Why would AZ/GA electing a GOP Senator in 2028? Or even GA in 2032 due to it inelasticity? The rest is doable if that exact PV scenario were to happen but honestly if the Dems control power through 2032, I expect a double digit PV victory or two thrown in there, allowing for some more Senate gains and polarization would probably be somewhat lower.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Why would AZ/GA electing a GOP Senator in 2028? Or even GA in 2032 due to it inelasticity? The rest is doable if that exact PV scenario were to happen but honestly if the Dems control power through 2032, I expect a double digit PV victory or two thrown in there, allowing for some more Senate gains and polarization would probably be somewhat lower.

This is assuming no further trends. Further trends are probably going to be bad for Democrats, giving that states moving D (AZ, GA, TX) are much larger than states moving R (MN, NH, ME, RI).
I don't see any reason to expect polarization to drop, and I'd actually guess it rises even more.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Democrats will win the next five:

2020 - Biden/Harris beats Trump/Pence
2024 - Harris/Polis beats Pence/Haley
2028 - Harris/Polis beats Haley/???
2032 - Polis/??? beats
2036 - Polis/??? beats

[MarkD]

Better than 50-50, I'd guess.

It's going to take a long time to undo the damage done to the GOP by Trumpism.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

it all depends on DC statehood, if its enshrined in the Constitution, then Rs will find it very difficult to come back from, thats why getting Dems need 52 seats to overcome a Filibuster

[Skill and Chance]

Pretty unlikely.  It would appear that most people just think of Biden as a vehicle to get Trump out of office and/or fix coronavirus.  Those are both short term concerns.  Assuming Biden wins, I expect Republicans to come back pretty quickly.  With Biden likely not seeking a second term, the incumbency advantage is lost and I would put Harris at 50/50 odds at best in 2024.   

I think the most likely outcome as of today is:

2020: Biden by 5ish in the PV, 300ish in the EC
2024: Republican narrowly defeats Harris
2028: Republican comfortably reelected
2032: Southwestern Democrat wins narrowly
2036: Southwestern Democrat comfortably reelected

If Trump does pull off the comeback, then I could see 3 or 4 straight terms of Democrats starting in 2024. 

[LabourJersey]

Four terms seems very, very unlikely given how polarizing this country is.

Three terms is a little more likely, but I wouldn't bet on it.

If I had to guess, I'd say:

Biden/Harris wins in November
Harris wins narrowly in 2024
Harris loses in '28 to some Republican

8 years is a long, long time in politics and enough for the GOP to come back

[Mister Mets]

More likely than usual for two reasons:

1)Democrats would be in a pretty good situation to win 3 terms if Biden retires after one term,
2)Democrats seem to have at least a minor long-term advantage in presidential elections

Adding to this a bit, voters tend to kick out parties after two or more terms in the White House, but incumbents still do better than people defending an open seat.

Assuming Biden doesn't run for a second term, 2024 is going to represent a worse than average chance at a party getting a second term because it will be an open election.

But if Kamala can win, 2028 will likely represent a better than an average chance of a party getting a third term because it will be an incumbent.

There are other factors. It's possible that Republican primary voters like the type of candidates who are less likely to win general elections.

They'll piss away Senate races on the likes of Todd Akin, Richard Mourdoch, Christine O'Donnell and Joe Miller, and pick someone like Donald Trump to run for President under historically favorable circumstances.

It's certainly possible that a perceived centrist will lose in 2024 (a Nikki Haley type) and the party will go with someone toxic in 2028, having learned the wrong lesson.

[Samof94]

What if Puerto Rico became a state?