How likely is it that Democrats win 3-4 consecutive terms in the White House?

[ShadowRocket]

Reagan's and Bush's presidencies were the last time the same party held the White House for more than two terms, and before that it was FDR's and Truman's cumulative five terms.

Given the current state of the party and the impact Trump is going to leave on it, I have a hard time seeing the GOP rebound by the 2024 election or even 2028.

[dw93]

I use to think it would happen in the near future, now I'm not too sure. I can see a Democratic dominated Presidency if Trump is re elected spanning from 2025-2037/41, but if Biden wins, I can see 2024 being a repeat of 2016 with Kamala as the likely Democratic nominee.

[TML]

If a Democratic president decides to govern like FDR, then I could envision this scenario unfolding.

On the other hand, if a Democratic president decides to govern like Bill Clinton/Barack Obama (as I believe the current Democratic nominee is likely to do), then this scenario is much less likely to unfold.

[MABA 2020]

I think if Kamala can win in 2024 then 2028 should be easier, especially if the GOP continues down their current path into far right conspiracy land

So fairly likely I think

[Sir Mohamed]

Way too soon to tell, but I think there is a major chance the next line of presidents is (may be wishful thinking though):

46. Joe Biden, 2021 - 2025 (declines to seek reelection)
47. Kamala Harris, 2025 - 2033
48. Standard conservative to moderate GOPer (which would resemble a 1952 and 1992 redux)

[brucejoel99]

Depends on how long it takes the GOP to shed Trumpism.

[Crane]

Let's not put the cart before the horse.

In 2010 the Koch Brothers spent $500 million inventing the Tea Party to make a "grassroots" resistance to healthcare reform and other issues which led to the Republican washover in the House. If Biden does anything even resembling a positive attempt to fix some of America's problems, the Kochs, Waltons, Mercers, DeVos, etc will be right back at it. Americans are stupid and easily influenced.

[Person Man]

Not very, but the Biden-Harris ticket is the best configuration for it in a while. Even if Trump suddenly becomes popular and stays popular, Pence just isn't the guy to carry things forward for him and 2024 just doesn't look very good for Republicans regardless. So unless we do live in a DemsinDisarray timeline forever, the next 3 term administration at least won't be Republican.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Three is certainly in the realm of possibility, although unlikely.  Four? Not happening.

[GAProgressive]

Biden/Harris

Harris/Buttigieg

Harris/Buttigieg

Then a centrist Repub.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

It's more likely than not that Biden wins at this point, so let's give the Democrats one.
It's more likely than not that an incumbent President wins re-election, so that's two.
Three is more difficult and has happened only once since the 40s. But considering the last two times a Democratic candidate was running for a third White House term for their party, 2000 and 2016, they both lost an incredibly tight election in a PV/EV split. So three possible, but difficult.
Four hasn't happened since FDR and that had a lot to do with WW2. Theoretically imaginable, but would require a realignment of presidential politics on the level of the New Deal to accomplish.

Maybe a 15% chance from this position that the Democrats win 3 consecutive terms. <1% chance of four consecutive.

[Hope For A New Era]

Five-term one-party control of the Presidency was made possible by the unique circumstances of the mid-20th century, circumstances which I doubt will be repeated.


However, I'd say what we're experiencing now is about as close as we can reasonably get.

Taking into account modern politics (polarization, media, etc), I'd say 3 is definitely possible, or even the most probable of all possible scenarios for the 2020s decade, but 4 is pretty unlikely. It seems like ~12 years is about how long it takes for a party to reinvent itself enough to have broad appeal again (see: Bill Clinton).

[NewYorkExpress]

Harris certainly can become a two term President if she wins in 2024/2028.

[Orser67]

More likely than usual for two reasons:

1)Democrats would be in a pretty good situation to win 3 terms if Biden retires after one term,
2)Democrats seem to have at least a minor long-term advantage in presidential elections

[Ferguson97]

Democrats win three terms if Biden wins in 2020.

46. Biden (2021-2025)

47. Harris (2025-2033)

48. Crazy Republican (2033-2041)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We dont know, due to fact if Ds get 52 votes in Senate they will likely pass DC statehood,  we should be mindful Obama had that chance but neglected to get rid of the filibuster,  that why McConnell needs to lose, he will try any trick not to get DC statehood into law. In a large enough wave, which is developing, Graham and Cornyn can lose in a 334 to 413 wave, just not in a 278 wave

[Statilius the Epicurean]

2)Democrats seem to have at least a minor long-term advantage in presidential elections

What on earth is this based on? They've lost 3 out of 5 presidential elections in the 21st century!

[Orser67]

2)Democrats seem to have at least a minor long-term advantage in presidential elections

What on earth is this based on? They've lost 3 out of 5 presidential elections in the 21st century!

Democrats have won 4 of the last 7 elections, and all of those wins have been by reasonably decisive margins. Meanwhile, of the Republican wins, 2000 was one of the 2 closest elections since at least the 1820s, 2016 was one of the 10 or so closest elections of all time, and 2004 was closer than any of the four recent Democratic wins.

Popular vote margin in the last 7 elections:
D+5.6
D+8.5
D+0.5
R+2.5
D+7.3
D+3.9
D+2.1

Tipping point state margin in the last 7 elections:
D+4.7
D+9.2
R+0.01
R+2.1
D+9.5
D+5.4
R+0.8

[Statilius the Epicurean]

So Democrats have a "long term advantage" in presidential elections because they comfortably won two elections in the 90s. Ok lmao.

The party either wins the presidency or doesn't. Margins are irrelevant. If anything the GOP has a better coalition for the electoral college, so should be favoured in a neutral year. I don't understand why some Democrats are so delusional about the "emerging Democratic majority" they've been predicting for the past 15 years...

[SenatorCouzens]

I say this in a light-hearted way and I know this is a political analysis board, but Democrats haven't even won the presidential election this year yet, and they are already wondering if they will get it four times in a row lol. Much in contemporary politics as well as political history suggests to me not to be too confident about any prediction.

[DC Al Fine]

So Democrats have a "long term advantage" in presidential elections because they comfortably won two elections in the 90s. Ok lmao.

The party either wins the presidency or doesn't. Margins are irrelevant. If anything the GOP has a better coalition for the electoral college, so should be favoured in a neutral year. I don't understand why some Democrats are so delusional about the "emerging Democratic majority" they've been predicting for the past 15 years...

To add to what Thersites said, not only does predicting a four-peat this require a lot of confidence in the Democrats' demographics, it also means predicting that nothing will happen over the next twelve to sixteen years to impact the demographic advantage. That's sixteen years of the Democrats not alienating part of their coalition, sixteen years of the GOP not making major changes, sixteen years of some new, more GOP friendly immigration stream not popping up, sixteen years of events not realigning things, heck, sixteen years of the Democrats not getting caught by an ill timed scandal or a poor economy.

That's an awful lot of assumptions for that prediction to work. I'm not confident in all those assumptions playing out.

[DabbingSanta]

Very unlikely. I expect they will lose in 2024 and beyond, especially if they keep playing into identity politics.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

If Democrats win 2020, 2024, and 2028 the Republican President in 2032 is going to have 65 Senate seats.

[Ferguson97]

If Democrats win 2020, 2024, and 2028 the Republican President in 2032 is going to have 65 Senate seats.

No?

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

If Democrats win 2020, 2024, and 2028 the Republican President in 2032 is going to have 65 Senate seats.

No?

Yes.
Let us suppose that Republicans win 2032 by 3, 2030 by 5, and lose 2028 by 4.
Among the Class 2 Seats, elected in 2032, they split 25R-8D.

Among the Class 1 Seats, elected in 2030, they split 21R-12D

Among the Class 3 Senate Seats, elected in 2028, they split 19R-15D

Thus the Senate splits 65R-35D.