2020 TN-Sen: Taylor Swift (D) vs. Bill Hagerty (R)

[Alben Barkley]

There was a lot of talk in 2018 about a “Swift bump” — an apparent increase in voter registrations and a swing in the polls in Tennessee after the previously apolitical Taylor Swift endorsed Phil Bredesen for Senate. Of course, he ended up losing anyway.

But let’s say Swift herself, who has continued her political activism since that 2018 endorsement, was running this year (her first year eligible under Constitutional age limits) for Lamar Alexander’s open seat. Would she have even a faint shot due to her star power and the novelty of her run? Or would she be doomed in this solidly R state?

[NewYorkExpress]

Taylor Swift's best chances at winning a Senate seat are to carpetbag somewhere else.

She's probably electable in Georgia, for example, and I could make an argument that she could do better than MJ Hegar can in Texas.

But she's not going to win in Tennessee.

If Swift runs in Tennessee:

Bill Hagerty (R) 53%
Taylor Swift (D) 46%

If Swift runs in Texas:

Taylor Swift (D) 49%
John Cornyn (R) 48.9%

If Swift runs in the Georgia regular election:

Taylor Swift (D) 51%
David Perdue (R) 48%

If Swift runs in the Georgia Special:

Doug Collins (R) 45.2%
Taylor Swift (D) 21%
Raphael Warnock 17%
Kelly Loeffler (R) 16.8%

In the Georgia Special Runoff:

Doug Collins (R) 50.75%
Taylor Swift (D) 49.25%

[Samof94]

She’d get the youth vote out.

[bagelman]

R autowin (TN)

[Suburbia]

Swift would win

[Stranger in a strange land]

Hagerty would win. Partisanship is too strong.

[BaldEagle1991]

Taylor Swift's best chances at winning a Senate seat are to carpetbag somewhere else.

She's probably electable in Georgia, for example, and I could make an argument that she could do better than MJ Hegar can in Texas.

Taylor Swift (D) 49%
John Cornyn (R) 48.9%

Taylor Swift has familial roots in the Houston area believe it or not. She should move to Houston and start a political career here then.

Sadly I think Kanye is more likely to go into politics than Swift is.