If Trump is re-elected, who are most likely 2024 Democratic and Republican Nominees?

[brucejoel99]

Warren vs. Pence.

Warren would probably be the hugest force in the Democratic primary, & I can't imagine who'd be able to successfully run against her. Bernie won't run so she'll probably inherit the progressive wing from him, in addition to a good chunk of moderates as well, given the make-up of her voter base this year. Harris would surely run again, but in addition to probably being tainted by the 2020 ticket's loss, she may not be as well-liked &/or seen as charismatic by as much of the party's base as Warren is. Yang would probably run again, & Governors like Cuomo, Newsom, &/or Inslee would probably all run too, but who knows how popular they'd be? Not to mention, with a 2nd Trump term, the party will have likely moved even further left by 2024.

As for the GOP, they nominate Pence as a sacrificial lamb (because there's no way the GOP wins a 3rd term after 8 years of Trump), & most other significant potential candidates would wait for 2028.

[brucejoel99]

Warren vs. Pence.

Warren would probably be the hugest force in the Democratic primary, & I can't imagine who'd be able to successfully run against her. Bernie won't run so she'll probably inherit the progressive wing from him, in addition to a good chunk of moderates as well, given the make-up of her voter base this year. Harris would surely run again, but in addition to probably being tainted by the 2020 ticket's loss, she may not be as well-liked &/or seen as charismatic by as much of the party's base as Warren is. Yang would probably run again, & Governors like Cuomo, Newsom, &/or Inslee would probably all run too, but who knows how popular they'd be? Not to mention, with a 2nd Trump term, the party will have likely moved even further left by 2024.

As for the GOP, they nominate Pence as a sacrificial lamb (because there's no way the GOP wins a 3rd term after 8 years of Trump), & most other significant potential candidates would wait for 2028.

If he’s still remembered fondly for it, Cuomo might be able to ride his COVID popularity to the nomination. Then again, Giuliani tried something like that in 2008 and that didn’t work out for him too well. Newsom might be a good candidate though. I still think some of the dark horses I mentioned would be viable, among others. I certainly don’t think Warren would have it locked up. Due to her age, her failed campaign this year, likely challenges from the left such as AOC, and possibly other factors that depend in part on why exactly Biden lost and what the state of the party is in 2024. We’d probably have another fairly open field like this year, but maybe more likely a dark horse emerges kinda like Carter in 1976. The party will certainly be divided on just how we managed to lose twice to the worst candidate in history and what needs to be done to correct course.

A noun, a verb, & COVID-19?

As for her running mate, top contenders would likely be Cory Booker, Julian Castro, Andrew Yang, and Andrew Gillum.

It wouldn't be Gillum.

[brucejoel99]

Beshear probably won’t run as he won’t do two campaigns at once. I think Gretchen Whitmer could win by getting a lot of the people who supported Klobuchar plus getting more young voters than her.

Hmm, good point. I was about to say that since the gov election is in 2023, it wouldn’t be an issue. But of course there’s lots of campaigning/debating going on the year before the election thanks to our ridiculously long primary season. Would be hard to catch up if he entered late, especially for a lesser known candidate from a small state like him. His best chance of getting on a presidential ticket in 2024 would be as Kamala’s VP or something. Better chance of that, of course, if he wins re-election. But if he does, he might opt to just serve out his term and run in 2028. He’ll still be pretty damn young.

Whitmer could have a viable path for the reasons you mention. Klob herself could also try to come back, of course, though I don’t know if she’d have even as good a chance as last time. Again though, I think who will be favored comes down largely to why Biden lost and where/how.

Hope not, didn't work out so well for Christie or Jindal.