Will the 2024 Democratic primary be similar to the 2016 Democratic Primary (or 2000 primary)

[Lognog]

If Kamala is a good VP will she just clear the field and walk away with the nomination with no problem

[YE]

Probably somewhere in between those two primaries. But yes it will be similar, and it’s  depressing that I’ll likely be 34 by the time the next real Dem primary for president happens.

[brucejoel99]

Probably somewhere in between those two primaries. But yes it will be similar, and it’s  depressing that I’ll likely be 34 by the time the next real Dem primary for president happens.

*38, as Vice President Buttigieg's campaign will likely prevent the 2032 primary from being a truly open one.

[YE]

Probably somewhere in between those two primaries. But yes it will be similar, and it’s  depressing that I’ll likely be 34 by the time the next real Dem primary for president happens.

*38, as Vice President Buttigieg's campaign will likely prevent the 2032 primary from being a truly open one.

Buttigieg at least would be a more competitive primary.

[brucejoel99]

Probably somewhere in between those two primaries. But yes it will be similar, and it’s  depressing that I’ll likely be 34 by the time the next real Dem primary for president happens.

*38, as Vice President Buttigieg's campaign will likely prevent the 2032 primary from being a truly open one.

Buttigieg at least would be a more competitive primary.

Depends on how his Vice Presidency goes

[Mr. Morden]

it’s  depressing that I’ll likely be 34 by the time the next real Dem primary for president happens.

If it makes you feel better, maybe the GOP will win the 2024 election, in which case the 2028 Dem. primary will be an open race.

[RINO Tom]

I think it depends how she comes across as VP.  If she’s championing progressive policies and pivots left once Democrats have governing power, more and more progressives will jump on board.

[pikachu]

Eh...there's a lot more division in the party than there was in 2000 and 2016 + Kamala's not really shown herself to be a world-beating politician. I'd be shocked if there's no one on the left of the party who doesn't see the downballot success in 2018 and 2020 (and likely to continue in 2022), along with the generational trends and doesn't try to take a real shot. It's also highly dependent on how the next four years actually go, which tbh none of us really know.

[ShadowRocket]

I'm expecting a Harris vs. Warren primary. It probably inevitable that there will be a progressive challenger and Warren seems to want to run again.

[brucejoel99]

I'm expecting a Harris vs. Warren primary. It probably inevitable that there will be a progressive challenger and Warren seems to want to run again.

I have to imagine that, in a one-on-one contest between VP Harris & Warren, Harris would win the nomination by just replicating Biden's 2020 primary numbers in the South, managing to get a decent home-state advantage in CA, & winning maybe 1 or 2 other states with decently-sized Black populations (e.g., NY). Warren could literally win the rest of the country (e.g., the entire Midwest, everything in the West except CA, & most of the Northeast), but Harris wins the nomination because she wins her states by much bigger margins. I think Harris would still win even with a map like this:

Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA)
Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)

[ShadowRocket]

I'm expecting a Harris vs. Warren primary. It probably inevitable that there will be a progressive challenger and Warren seems to want to run again.

I have to imagine that, in a one-on-one contest between VP Harris & Warren, Harris would win the nomination by just replicating Biden's 2020 primary numbers in the South, managing to get a decent home-state advantage in CA, & winning maybe 1 or 2 other states with decently-sized Black populations (e.g., NY). Warren could literally win the rest of the country (e.g., the entire Midwest, everything in the West except CA, & most of the Northeast), but Harris wins the nomination because she wins her states by much bigger margins. I think Harris would still win even with a map like this:

Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA)
Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)

I'd say that sounds right. I'm hard pressed to think of a progressive challenger that seems likely to run as well as being able to peel away minority support from Harris in this scenario. Maybe Ocasio-Cortez but I don't think she'll run as early as 2024.

[vileplume]

I'm expecting a Harris vs. Warren primary. It probably inevitable that there will be a progressive challenger and Warren seems to want to run again.

I have to imagine that, in a one-on-one contest between VP Harris & Warren, Harris would win the nomination by just replicating Biden's 2020 primary numbers in the South, managing to get a decent home-state advantage in CA, & winning maybe 1 or 2 other states with decently-sized Black populations (e.g., NY). Warren could literally win the rest of the country (e.g., the entire Midwest, everything in the West except CA, & most of the Northeast), but Harris wins the nomination because she wins her states by much bigger margins. I think Harris would still win even with a map like this:

Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA)
Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)

As long as Harris is a decent VP who manages not to p*ss off the left of the party too much I doubt she'll get any top tier challenger, let alone Warren, who likely will be a key player in the Biden administration and thus likely a key Harris backer. Thus I imagine the Democratic Primary will be a relatively clear Harris sweep with only the likes of West Virginia voting against her. The GOP primary will be far, far more interesting.

*Of course this is all contingent on Biden winning, which does look highly likely at present.

[Ferguson97]

I'm expecting a Harris vs. Warren primary. It probably inevitable that there will be a progressive challenger and Warren seems to want to run again.

There won't be an establishment challenger to Harris. It'll be AOC, who won't win a single primary.