TX HD 65: Biden +15

[wbrocks67]

Biden 55
Trump 40

Trump +2 district in 2016.

I've lost count of the amount of TX internals we're getting that have Biden double digit gains over Trump 16.

https://twitter.com/ForHD65/status/1295465474906566658/photo/1

[OneJ]

The idea that Trump will win Texas by 5 (or something like that) really should be put to rest.

[wbrocks67]

The idea that Trump will win Texas by 5 (or something like that) really should be put to rest.

These congressional polls are all telling the same story - basically the same story that the high quality national polls are telling (Biden 8-10). However, the state by state polls at large are telling a bit of a different story that the district/national polls are telling. It's weird. Also could just be that we are getting a ton more junk state polling and not enough HQ stuff.

[Sbane]

The idea that Trump will win Texas by 5 (or something like that) really should be put to rest.

These congressional polls are all telling the same story - basically the same story that the high quality national polls are telling (Biden 8-10). However, the state by state polls at large are telling a bit of a different story that the district/national polls are telling. It's weird. Also could just be that we are getting a ton more junk state polling and not enough HQ stuff.

Lots of swings towards Biden in suburban districts, which are also competitive at the congressional level thus we are getting a ton of internal polling from them. Biden might not be gaining as much ground in rural/small town areas and that might be reflected in the state polling.

[wbrocks67]

The idea that Trump will win Texas by 5 (or something like that) really should be put to rest.

These congressional polls are all telling the same story - basically the same story that the high quality national polls are telling (Biden 8-10). However, the state by state polls at large are telling a bit of a different story that the district/national polls are telling. It's weird. Also could just be that we are getting a ton more junk state polling and not enough HQ stuff.

Lots of swings towards Biden in suburban districts, which are also competitive at the congressional level thus we are getting a ton of internal polling from them. Biden might not be gaining as much ground in rural/small town areas and that might be reflected in the state polling.

Sure, but you would imagine that Biden is at least holding steady in rural and urban areas, with the possibility of doing a bit better than Trump in both. So then you have suburban areas, which are seeing massive swings. So that makes the polls showing TX tied much more realistic than today's +7 Trump poll.

[Buzz]

So we taking D internals as gospel but calling the other polls garbage haha.  It’s fine but it’s funny

[WD]

So we taking D internals as gospel but calling the other polls garbage haha.  It’s fine but it’s funny

Polling in TX usually underestimates Democrats, so these polls are spot on.

[Sbane]

The idea that Trump will win Texas by 5 (or something like that) really should be put to rest.

These congressional polls are all telling the same story - basically the same story that the high quality national polls are telling (Biden 8-10). However, the state by state polls at large are telling a bit of a different story that the district/national polls are telling. It's weird. Also could just be that we are getting a ton more junk state polling and not enough HQ stuff.

Lots of swings towards Biden in suburban districts, which are also competitive at the congressional level thus we are getting a ton of internal polling from them. Biden might not be gaining as much ground in rural/small town areas and that might be reflected in the state polling.

Sure, but you would imagine that Biden is at least holding steady in rural and urban areas, with the possibility of doing a bit better than Trump in both. So then you have suburban areas, which are seeing massive swings. So that makes the polls showing TX tied much more realistic than today's +7 Trump poll.

Absolutely. Texas will be much closer to tied than Trump +7.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Also, where's my HD-134 poll? I'm starting to wonder if they found strong numbers for Davis and they're refusing to release it

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Also, where's my HD-134 poll? I'm starting to wonder if they found strong numbers for Davis and they're refusing to release it

That wouldn’t surprise me. Her numbers will close after advertising begins. Ann Johnson has raised a bunch but to my knowledge hasn’t started advertising yet.

[S019]

Also, where's my HD-134 poll? I'm starting to wonder if they found strong numbers for Davis and they're refusing to release it

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1293978214356983817

there was this not far too back, Johnson+2, but D-internal and lots of undecideds


Anyways, with these numbers, Biden would flip TX, if this swing occurred statewide.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Also, where's my HD-134 poll? I'm starting to wonder if they found strong numbers for Davis and they're refusing to release it

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1293978214356983817

there was this not far too back, Johnson+2, but D-internal and lots of undecideds


Anyways, with these numbers, Biden would flip TX, if this swing occurred statewide.

But this is the year that Republicans will be the ones to overperformed Texas polling because the prognosticators all have it at Lean R!

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Also, where's my HD-134 poll? I'm starting to wonder if they found strong numbers for Davis and they're refusing to release it

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1293978214356983817

there was this not far too back, Johnson+2, but D-internal and lots of undecideds

Anyways, with these numbers, Biden would flip TX, if this swing occurred statewide.

Thanks! I don't remember seeing this posted on here. I don't know if I'd bet on a Davis loss, but it certainly looks like it'll be closer than 2018.

[S019]

Also, where's my HD-134 poll? I'm starting to wonder if they found strong numbers for Davis and they're refusing to release it

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1293978214356983817

there was this not far too back, Johnson+2, but D-internal and lots of undecideds

Anyways, with these numbers, Biden would flip TX, if this swing occurred statewide.

Thanks! I don't remember seeing this posted on here. I don't know if I'd bet on a Davis loss, but it certainly looks like it'll be closer than 2018.

I agree, but given this is a D internal, I'd think Davis is probably still ahead, I'm honestly really worried/somewhat expecting that Dems fail to take the chamber, because of her, though hopefully in that case, there's enough pressure on her to not vote for the GOP congressional gerrymander.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Also, where's my HD-134 poll? I'm starting to wonder if they found strong numbers for Davis and they're refusing to release it

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1293978214356983817

there was this not far too back, Johnson+2, but D-internal and lots of undecideds

Anyways, with these numbers, Biden would flip TX, if this swing occurred statewide.

Thanks! I don't remember seeing this posted on here. I don't know if I'd bet on a Davis loss, but it certainly looks like it'll be closer than 2018.

I agree, but given this is a D internal, I'd think Davis is probably still ahead, I'm honestly really worried/somewhat expecting that Dems fail to take the chamber, because of her, though hopefully in that case, there's enough pressure on her to not vote for the GOP congressional gerrymander.

Oh I know. I don't think Davis is losing at the moment.

This damn Davis seat is throwing off all my State House predictions. I can see this being the difference between a chamber flip & a tie

[S019]

Also, where's my HD-134 poll? I'm starting to wonder if they found strong numbers for Davis and they're refusing to release it

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1293978214356983817

there was this not far too back, Johnson+2, but D-internal and lots of undecideds

Anyways, with these numbers, Biden would flip TX, if this swing occurred statewide.

Thanks! I don't remember seeing this posted on here. I don't know if I'd bet on a Davis loss, but it certainly looks like it'll be closer than 2018.

I agree, but given this is a D internal, I'd think Davis is probably still ahead, I'm honestly really worried/somewhat expecting that Dems fail to take the chamber, because of her, though hopefully in that case, there's enough pressure on her to not vote for the GOP congressional gerrymander.

Oh I know. I don't think Davis is losing at the moment.

This damn Davis seat is throwing off all my State House predictions. I can see this being the difference between a chamber flip & a tie

Agreed, which is why Dems need a path that doesn't require Davis. There is one in HD-121 (San Antonio), but that requires Dems to run the table among the most competitive DFW seats, as well as defend all of their incumbents to get to a net gain of 9, which is a tall task. I do think Dems could pull this off though, if the election was tomorrow, but it isn't tomorrow.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

EMC Research (I assume conducted for Thimesch's campaign, so is an internal)

August 5-9, 2020
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%