McCain vs Hillary 2008 (no Lehman Brothers Crash)

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think Hillary wins but it’s extremely close :

Clinton/Vilsack 275
McCain/Romney 263

[MT Treasurer]

There’s no way Clinton wins AR before NV/VA/NH even in 2008.

[Senator-elect Spark]

McCain squeaks it out in a neutral climate.

Senator John S. McCain III (R-AZ) / Fmr. Governor Willard M. Romney (R-MA) - 273 EVs, 49%
Senator Hillary R. Clinton (D-NY) / Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) - 265 EVs, 49%

[NewYorkExpress]

Remember, Iraq was also in flames, in a war we started.

Hillary at the top of ticket gives McCain more problems with female voters as well, probably forcing him to pick Palin (or another female running mate).

I personally believe that Hillary would have at least given serious consideration to choosing Obama, despite the intense primary campaign.

Hillary Clinton/Barack Obama 53% 391 EV
John McCain/Sarah Palin 44% 147 EV

Clinton's selection of Obama, plus Palin's implosion gives Clinton, North Carolina, Missouri, Georgia and Indiana.

The highlight of the campaign is Obama wiping the floor with Palin in the VP debate.

[darklordoftech]

Remember, Iraq was also in flames, in a war we started.

And the economy was already in recession, and Afghanistan was mismanaged, and there was Gitmo, and there was the PATRIOT Act.

[OSR stands with Israel]

There’s no way Clinton wins AR before NV/VA/NH even in 2008.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ar/arkansas_mccain_vs_clinton-591.html

[MT Treasurer]

There’s no way Clinton wins AR before NV/VA/NH even in 2008.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ar/arkansas_mccain_vs_clinton-591.html

I’m aware of that, but early polling isn’t always the best predictor of the final map. There was also polling showing McCain doing very well in OR/WA/MI, doesn’t mean he would have won those states.

There’s no universe in which Clinton wins AR but loses NV and NH in 2008, that’s ridiculous.

[Alben Barkley]

There’s no way Clinton wins AR before NV/VA/NH even in 2008.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ar/arkansas_mccain_vs_clinton-591.html

I’m aware of that, but early polling isn’t always the best predictor of the final map. There was also polling showing McCain doing very well in OR/WA/MI, doesn’t mean he would have won those states.

There’s no universe in which Clinton wins AR but loses NV and NH in 2008, that’s ridiculous.

It’s not THAT ridiculous. Those aren’t terrible states for McCain, and the Clinton brand was still very strong in Arkansas. With no crash, it’s not impossible McCain at least cuts it closer in some of those states while still losing Arkansas. With the crash, he loses them all by significant margins, plus Arkansas, plus maybe even states like Kentucky and West Virginia. (Hillary had leads there too.)

[Agonized-Statism]

Senator John McCain (R-AZ) / Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK)
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) ✓

Anyone who says McCain would win is forgetting how unpopular Iraq was at that point.

[Alben Barkley]

Senator John McCain (R-AZ) / Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK)
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) ✓

Anyone who says McCain would win is forgetting how unpopular Iraq was at that point.

But Indiana really only flipped because of the economy. And I still think Hillary wins Arkansas. She was leading in KY/WV before the crash too; could have at least won WV. In any case, I think the map would have resembled a Bill Clinton map a lot more, and some of the demographic trends we’ve seen since then might have played out differently or at a different pace.

[President Johnson]

There’s no way Clinton wins AR before NV/VA/NH even in 2008.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ar/arkansas_mccain_vs_clinton-591.html

I’m aware of that, but early polling isn’t always the best predictor of the final map. There was also polling showing McCain doing very well in OR/WA/MI, doesn’t mean he would have won those states.

There’s no universe in which Clinton wins AR but loses NV and NH in 2008, that’s ridiculous.

Yeah, I don't believe Hillary would have won Arkansas in 2008 as well. It was actually one of the few states that trended right compared to 2004. It actually trended right from 1996 with each presidential election. 2016 may have been the low point, but I doubt Joe Biden will do much better than Hillary this time around, even if he wins the election in modern-day landslide. In 2008, the state would have been within single digits with Hillary as the candidate, but I doubt she would have done a lot better than John Kerry did. Al Gore's 2000 performance, a 46-51% loss, is probably the ceiling here.

[KYRockefeller]

Wasn't the surge starting to pay some benefits around 2008?  That sort of gave McCain a lift since he supported it and a lot were against it.  Clinton voted for the war so I think that ends in a draw and if its a foreign policy-centric election McCain might have just enough room to carve an independent path from Bush.

I think Clinton almost would've had to pick Obama for unity after the hard primary run and that would've led to high black turnout for her that I don't think McCain could've beaten back.  If Hillary doesn't pick Obama I think it could've produced some 2016-like turnout woes for her and McCain may have squeaked by.