Potential VPs for a Theoretical 2024 Democratic Nominee Kamala Harris

[gf20202]

Ludicrous exercise I know and completely contingent on a Biden win and successful Kamala primary run but curious what others thoughts are and if I missed or underranked/overanked anybody:

Thoughts?

1. Senator Mark Kelly if he wins. Fundraising Superstar + Swing State + Astronaut + Veteran + Ideal Age + Probably The Most Vetted You Can Be Without Having Run a National Campaign + Record of Supporting Each Other Politically
2. Senator Chris Murphy. Experienced + National Profile albeit limited but still more known than someone like Martin Heinrich. Dems pick Senators. It's what they do.
3. Governor Tim Walz. Pretty much the only option for boring older but not too old white guy in the midwest for ticket balance + Gov but DC experience in the House + Veteran
4. Governor Gretchen Whitmer. Swing State + Ideal Age + Already Underwent One Vetting without much issue, maybe worry about gender balance of the ticket though
5. Secretary Julian Castro if he somehow gets into Biden’s cabinet. Run for President before + Ideal Age
6. Senator Cal Cunnigham if he wins. Swing State + Army Reserves + Ideal age
7. Governor Roy Cooper. Swing State, less than ideal age though
8. Governor Andrew Cuomo. Seemingly well regarded after Covid-19, less than ideal age though
9. Senator Amy Klobuchar. Kind of replaces the Biden part of the 2020 ticket + Midwest + run for president before, gender balance concerns though as well as two law & order dem types on the same ticket maybe not making a lot of sense
10. Wildcard #1 Governor Andy Beshear. Interesting Political Story to tell in red state + Ideal Age, but not sure he gets the campaign anything and not 100% pro-choice though as I understand it
11. Senator Tammy Baldwin if Wisconsin is trending blue enough to hold the seat. Swing State + Ideal Age, maybe too much history making though and concerns over gender balance
12. Wildcard #2— Senator Joe Kennedy III if he wins the primary. Durable brand in democratic politics, something new (first woman president), something old (something of a Kennedy restoration)

I don't think she'll pick another African American even if some may appear on the list still for reasons of principle and/or optics. Sorry Corey Booker and KLB. Even another woman feels somewhat unlikely.

Why Plausible Others Didn’t Make the List:
Senator Steve Bullock if he wins. Lots of pluses including being a former governor who has won in a red state, but even if he and Cooney both win, I can’t see Dems risking a senate seat/benefits of an incumbency in an otherwise red state.
Senator Martin Heinrich - Probably doesn’t have enough name recognition and doesn’t have upside to deal with the lack of geographic balance on the ticket
Senator Catherine Cortez Masto -  Probably doesn’t have enough name recognition and doesn’t have upside to deal with the lack of geographic or gender balance on the ticket, this felt more like her cycle to have a chance and wasn’t interested in being considered
Senator Gary Peters - Only somewhat reasonably aged pro-choice senator from the midwest, but doesn’t seem to move the needle/have national profile
Senator Michael Bennet - Ran a really blah presidential campaign and might have some potential health concerns
Mayor Pete Buttgieg - Without being from a swing state, First Gay Man on the same ticket as First Potential Woman President seems unlikely, not sure he gets a cabinet position enough to answer experience questions
Governor Jared Polis - Without being from a true swing state, Jewish First Gay Man on the same ticket as First Potential Woman President seems unlikely
Representative AOC - Barely constitutionally eligible, probably too much political risk for the cautious Harris

[brucejoel99]

This pertains to discussion of a future election &, as such, belongs on the Presidential Election Trends board.

Mods, please move.

[StateBoiler]

Ludicrous exercise I know...

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Yes, this is indeed putting the cart before the horse, but I can't help but tempt myself with these types of things.

The first few that jump to mind are Cory Booker or Julian Castro if she's looking for a man of color. If she's looking for a white man, Cal Cunningham, Andy Beshear, and possibly someone like Conor Lamb or Josh Shapiro if they win PA Gov/Sen in 2022. If she wants a white woman, Gretchen Whitmer and Tammy Baldwin seem like great options. And for a woman of color, which strikes me as the least likely scenario, then KLB, Stacey Abrams, Tammy Duckworth, and Michelle Lujan Grisham would be up there for sure.

She's really good friends with Booker, so I think he would be at the very top of the list.

[gf20202]

The first few that jump to mind are Cory Booker or Julian Castro if she's looking for a man of color. If she's looking for a white man, Cal Cunningham, Andy Beshear, and possibly someone like Conor Lamb or Josh Shapiro if they win PA Gov/Sen in 2022. If she wants a white woman, Gretchen Whitmer and Tammy Baldwin seem like great options. And for a woman of color, which strikes me as the least likely scenario, then KLB, Stacey Abrams, Tammy Duckworth, and Michelle Lujan Grisham would be up there for sure.

In terms of Lamb, Shapiro and Abrams, it seems unlikely that Harris would pick someone elected in the previous cycle, two years not really time in the job to get credit for it or appear experienced.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

The first few that jump to mind are Cory Booker or Julian Castro if she's looking for a man of color. If she's looking for a white man, Cal Cunningham, Andy Beshear, and possibly someone like Conor Lamb or Josh Shapiro if they win PA Gov/Sen in 2022. If she wants a white woman, Gretchen Whitmer and Tammy Baldwin seem like great options. And for a woman of color, which strikes me as the least likely scenario, then KLB, Stacey Abrams, Tammy Duckworth, and Michelle Lujan Grisham would be up there for sure.

In terms of Lamb, Shapiro and Abrams, it seems unlikely that Harris would pick someone elected in the previous cycle, two years not really time in the job to get credit for it or appear experienced.

Lamb and Shapiro would have served in Congress and as a State Attorney General, respectively. "Inexperience" is not a valid criticism in the age of Donald Trump, nor would it really matter if they'd be VP to someone who has served as a Senator and Vice President (hypothetically.)

Abrams is a wild card--people seem to like her a lot and she seems to have her eyes on the Presidency or at least VP soon.

[Torrain]

Conventional Pick 1: Mark Kelly (D-AZ). If he wins, he's got both legislative experience, and a compelling personal story. He can bring his electoral experience to the table, potentially aiding the ticket in Arizona. Additionally, having Gabby Giffords as Second Lady of the United States would send a powerful message about the role of gun violence in American public life.

Conventional Pick 2: Gov. Cooper (D-NC). Barring controversy, or a surprise loss, Cooper will have spent two years as a fairly successful Governor in one of the countries premier swing states. Putting him on the ticket would put focus on the Sunbelt, and it would be hard to question his credentials as a qualified candidate. (It should be noted that the last NC politician on a national ticket did little to carry their homestate, so maybe he's overrated).

Wildcard Pick: Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI). By 2024, Schatz will have a decade of Senate experience under his belt. He's still fairly young and quite affable, but lacks the charisma to outshine the top of the ticket. In essence, he is to the Democratic Party what Al Gore was in 1992.

[brucejoel99]

I'd wanna say Sherrod Brown, because nobody else would even come close in terms of regional balance, progressive cred, WWC appeal, etc, but I'd really rather not give up his Senate seat because it's honestly way too valuable to give up (& it's for that reason that hypothetical Sen. Steve Bullock should also be crossed off the list too).

So maybe Tim Walz? Or Mark Pocan?

Alternatively, maybe Roy Cooper (or Doug Jones, if he's still relevant) if big plays wanna be made for states like NC & GA?

[ultraviolet]

I was just thinking about this. I think she’d probably choose a white man but who knows. Inslee, Cooper, and Brown come to mind and I think they’d all be excellent, but there’s the problem with Brown’s senate seat. Maybe O’Rourke or Buttigieg if they get some position in the Biden administration.

I would love Bob Casey but I don’t find that likely.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Andy Beshear would be my bet.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

IMO, she can't go wrong with any of these-

Sen. Cal Cunningam of North Carolina
Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina
Congressman Tim Ryan of Ohio
Sen. Steve Bullock of Montana
Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio
Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona
Fmr. Governor John Bel Edwards of Louisiana
Governor Andy Beshear of Kentucky
Sen. Jon Tester of Montana
Fmr. Secretary Julian Castro of Texas
Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania
Sen. Martin Heinrich of New Mexico

If she wants a woman, she should go with either one of the Tammys or Gretchen Whitmer.

[Heebie Jeebie]

My order of Preference:

1.  Sec. Julian Castro
2.  Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand
3.  Sen. Bob Casey
4.  Sen. Tammy Duckworth
5.  Sec. Richard Cordray

All from very big states.  It's a shame the Florida Democratic party is so dysfunctional.  

[TarHeelDem]

Roy Cooper
Andy Beshear
Doug Jones
Beto O'Rourke
Pete Buttigieg

[Heebie Jeebie]

Here are two criteria we should all agree on:

1.  Real experience - a sitting or former governor, Senator, high-level cabinet official, or member of House leadership
2.  No risk to legislative majorities - no sitting Senators from purple or red states

[Pollster]

No doubt Harris/Brown was the hope for 2020, and it will probably be the hope for 2024 as well. Wildcard of course is Brown's Senate seat which will be up that same cycle.

If Andy Beshear is re-elected, there's a strong case for him, but two former AG's on the ticket could cause some problems. Ditto Roy Cooper.

Mark Kelly will, presumably, have survived back-to-back Senate elections in what are likely to be two very different cycles. A good possibility.

Harris/Bullock would be an excellent ticket if Bullock wins, though I see some Democrats opposing vacating that seat and filling it with an appointee so close to when it is back in cycle. Ditto Cunningham.

I'd personally really like it to be Julian Castro.

[politics_king]

Rep. (soon to be Sen.) Ben Ray Lujan or Gov. Jared Polis

[Alben Barkley]

Well I’m obviously pulling for Beshear. Who is pro-choice by the way, was endorsed by NARAL.

[Mike Thick]

Harrisgieg

[YE]

This has a longer shell life on the trends board so moving this there.

[gf20202]

IMO, she can't go wrong with any of these-

Sen. Cal Cunningam of North Carolina
Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina
Congressman Tim Ryan of Ohio
Sen. Steve Bullock of Montana
Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio
Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona
Fmr. Governor John Bel Edwards of Louisiana
Governor Andy Beshear of Kentucky
Sen. Jon Tester of Montana
Fmr. Secretary Julian Castro of Texas
Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania

If she wants a woman, she should go with either one of the Tammys or Gretchen Whitmer.

JBE and Bob Casey are pro-life and thus nonstarters for the democratic VP nomination.

[Left Wing]

Well I’m obviously pulling for Beshear. Who is pro-choice by the way, was endorsed by NARAL.

Endorsed by NARAL against Matt Bevin. Not necessarily 100% pro-choice. He enforced abortion restrictions as AG.

[ShadowRocket]

I'm repeating myself, but if he becomes UN Ambassador or gets a Cabinet position, Pete Buttigieg strikes me as the ideal choice. I like the Cooper and Beshear suggestions as well.

I echo the sentiment that Sherrod Brown would be great if it weren't for the Senate seat issue. Though he'll be up for reelection in 2024 so maybe that could be a potential work around?

[brucejoel99]

I echo the sentiment that Sherrod Brown would be great if it weren't for the Senate seat issue. Though he'll be up for reelection in 2024 so maybe that could be a potential work around?

If he was already planning on retiring, then it'd be fine (I mean, we'd still probably lose the seat, but with a retirement, that's the case regardless of whether or not he's the Veep), but if he's actively running for re-election, then that's more of a case to not pick him as the running mate in 2024. This wouldn't be the same thing as WI-01 2012, DE-SEN 2008, CT-SEN 2000, etc. This would be a winnable seat for the GOP, & they'd eat up being able to attack Brown for "abandoning OH," "caring more about his resume than his constituents," etc.

[ultraviolet]

I echo the sentiment that Sherrod Brown would be great if it weren't for the Senate seat issue. Though he'll be up for reelection in 2024 so maybe that could be a potential work around?

Wouldn’t that make it worse? If he weren’t up for election then he could return to the senate if he and Harris lost.

[Agonized-Statism]

Considering the devastated post-pandemic world we'll be coming into, also in the early stages of a cold war with China, it would be smart to pick someone reassuringly "conservative" to contrast the big changes that would theoretically come in Harris' name while addressing all the problems created by 2020. On the other hand, if Biden's retired due to age, younger candidates will be on people's minds. Duckworth would be a smart choice.