CA-25 - GSG (D): Garcia +1
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Author Topic: CA-25 - GSG (D): Garcia +1  (Read 1258 times)
VAR
VARepublican
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« on: September 03, 2020, 03:46:53 PM »
« edited: September 03, 2020, 03:54:19 PM by VARepublican »
Aug 26-30, 400 LV, MoE: 4.9%

Garcia (R, inc.) 46%
Smith (D) 45%

https://www.newsweek.com/battle-key-california-congressional-seat-held-gop-virtual-tie-democratic-poll-says-1529569
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #1 on: September 03, 2020, 03:54:53 PM »
Undecided 9%
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: September 03, 2020, 04:03:34 PM »
I just think of the NYT poll from 2018 that Katie Hill down 4 and then she won by like 8.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #3 on: September 03, 2020, 04:26:46 PM »
I don't think Biden will only win here by 7.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #4 on: September 03, 2020, 05:46:06 PM »
I know it’s a Democratic poll, but if Garcia is only outperforming Trump by 8, this race is "Lean R" the same way CA-21 was "Likely R" with Valadao.
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S019
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« Reply #5 on: September 03, 2020, 09:56:21 PM »
« Edited: September 04, 2020, 10:58:44 AM by Speaker of the Lincoln Council S019 »
Polling in this seat seems to be quite R friendly, like it was in 2018. Also polling in seats with sizable Hispanic populations like this one tend to underestimate Democrats.
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Woody
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« Reply #6 on: September 04, 2020, 09:39:50 AM »
Strong lean-R.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #7 on: September 04, 2020, 09:45:03 AM »
Embarrassing result for a D internal, but there's also reason to believe that Biden is ahead by more than 7 here. Katie Hill won this seat by 9% here in 2018, and there's no reason to believe Biden would do worse than that.
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DaWN
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« Reply #8 on: September 04, 2020, 01:16:14 PM »
Quote from: TrendsareUsuallyReal on September 04, 2020, 09:45:03 AM
Embarrassing result for a D internal, but there's also reason to believe that Biden is ahead by more than 7 here. Katie Hill won this seat by 9% here in 2018, and there's no reason to believe Biden would do worse than that.

I would suggest that Garcia overperforming Trump by only 8 points is actually pretty bad news for him. But both district polls and internals have a bad track record so I'm taking this one with a grain of salt.
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Canis
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« Reply #9 on: September 04, 2020, 03:45:27 PM »
Garcia did very good in the special but turnout was quite down with Presidential turnout it will be very hard for him to make it but he is outperforming Trump by a lot in the polls which is good for him Id say this race will probably be very close ranging between Smith +3-Garcia+2 Plus Democrat grassroot organization is going all in for her ive been contacted by the party multiple times now asking to phonebank or volunteer for Smith I Rate this as a Tossup If it were held today I think Garcia would probably eek out a win
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #10 on: November 23, 2020, 09:24:59 PM »
Smith actually had relatively accurate internal polling..
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I’m not Stu
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« Reply #11 on: November 23, 2020, 09:27:41 PM »
Garcia and Valadao are just narrowly ahead. How will the remaining ballots lean?
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