WI-Marquette: Biden +5
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Author Topic: WI-Marquette: Biden +5  (Read 1268 times)
The Other Castro
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« on: August 11, 2020, 12:20:48 PM »
Biden - 49%
Trump - 44%
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #1 on: August 11, 2020, 12:21:56 PM »
Too close for comfort.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #2 on: August 11, 2020, 12:23:14 PM »
Changes from Marquette poll in Jun. 14-18

Biden: 49 (-3)
Trump: 44 ( - )

RV sample for this poll:

Biden: 48
Trump: 42
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: August 11, 2020, 12:23:32 PM »
Called it

Quote from: Gass3268 on August 11, 2020, 11:17:36 AM
Marquette Poll comes out in a hour. The Marquette poll typically bounces back and forth a bit poll to poll on if it's good for Democrats or Republicans. The last one was really good for Biden being up 8. My guess is this one will be better for Trump with Biden only being up 4. Something like 48-44.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #4 on: August 11, 2020, 12:24:16 PM »
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: August 11, 2020, 12:25:16 PM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on August 11, 2020, 12:23:14 PM
Changes from Marquette poll in July

Biden: 49 (-3)
Trump: 44 ( - )

You are comparing the RV to the LV. In June the LV was:

Biden 50
Trump 44

So Biden only lost a point, almost no change.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: August 11, 2020, 12:26:23 PM »
Quote from: Devout Centrist on August 11, 2020, 12:24:16 PM


His approval dropped from -6 to -10 yet Biden *lost* a point? Sure, Jan
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: August 11, 2020, 12:27:15 PM »
Trump can't win if he's losing the Northeast Media Market:
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #8 on: August 11, 2020, 12:28:16 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on August 11, 2020, 12:25:16 PM
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on August 11, 2020, 12:23:14 PM
Changes from Marquette poll in July

Biden: 49 (-3)
Trump: 44 ( - )

You are comparing the RV to the LV. In June the LV was:

Biden 50
Trump 44

So Biden only lost a point, almost no change.



Huh.  538 has the Marquette LV poll (Jun. 14-18) at Biden 52-44.  
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #9 on: August 11, 2020, 12:28:24 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 11, 2020, 12:26:23 PM
Quote from: Devout Centrist on August 11, 2020, 12:24:16 PM


His approval dropped from -6 to -10 yet Biden *lost* a point? Sure, Jan
In a poll with 675 respondents, there's bound to be some noise. Which makes this entire exercise kinda pointless.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: August 11, 2020, 12:29:14 PM »
Not the best trajectory for Trump here:



It appears that most the undecideds don't like Trump.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #11 on: August 11, 2020, 12:40:22 PM »
Again, Biden's lead *drops* with Leaners? And on a -10 approval, he's only 4 behind Biden? Skeptical.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #12 on: August 11, 2020, 01:50:16 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 11, 2020, 12:40:22 PM
Again, Biden's lead *drops* with Leaners? And on a -10 approval, he's only 4 behind Biden? Skeptical.



Why is SN banned but Wbrocks allowed to stay?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #13 on: August 11, 2020, 01:52:37 PM »
Quote from: lfromnj on August 11, 2020, 01:50:16 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 11, 2020, 12:40:22 PM
Again, Biden's lead *drops* with Leaners? And on a -10 approval, he's only 4 behind Biden? Skeptical.



Why is SN banned but Wbrocks allowed to stay?

LOL what?
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redjohn
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« Reply #14 on: August 11, 2020, 01:54:24 PM »
49-44 is a little concerning with Evers having wide approvals. It's probably going to be close, but hopefully as voters learn more about Biden (lol) through the DNC and increased coverage, his numbers here will rise.

I'd say it's much more concerning that the incumbent President is at only 44%. He's currently losing all of the states with a margin of less than 5% in 2016, which is very bad for him. He can afford to lose WI+MI, but then he can't afford to lose PA/FL/AZ. Unlikely. I'd rather be Biden than Trump right now, hands down.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #15 on: August 11, 2020, 02:06:25 PM »
13% of the African American vote is undecided and they have Trump winning 15%. So room for Biden to growth there.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #16 on: August 11, 2020, 02:25:06 PM »
Rs cant say much about this poll, Safe D
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #17 on: August 11, 2020, 03:38:46 PM »

True.
But his 538 average is slightly higher. I still feel comfortable that Biden will win it.
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BobbieMac
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« Reply #18 on: August 11, 2020, 04:15:02 PM »
Biden +8 nationally on UNS so pretty much average.
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Hammy
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« Reply #19 on: August 11, 2020, 05:59:51 PM »

With the exception of one summer/fall poll (which got her number right) Clinton was under-polled by quite a bit--they just under-polled Trump more. I averaged Marquette's polls in 2016 (since they're seen as the gold standard) and Trump got about 50-60% of the undecideds, and Clinton about 20%--Biden's too close to 50% and undecideds are too low for Trump to benefit from the same happening this time.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #20 on: August 11, 2020, 06:07:09 PM »
While it could be better, it still lines up with Biden's consistent mid to high single digit leads here.
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