MN Emerson Biden+3
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  MN Emerson Biden+3
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Author Topic: MN Emerson Biden+3  (Read 1487 times)
SaneDemocrat
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« on: August 11, 2020, 11:01:30 AM »

Biden 50
Trump 47
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: August 11, 2020, 11:06:59 AM »

Reminder that Emerson uses bad data:

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Skye
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« Reply #2 on: August 11, 2020, 11:08:48 AM »

Reminder that Emerson uses bad data:



Well, we don't call it Memerson for nothing.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: August 11, 2020, 11:17:01 AM »

Emerson is embarrasing.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #4 on: August 11, 2020, 11:18:04 AM »

RCP is RUSHING to get this included
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Annatar
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« Reply #5 on: August 11, 2020, 11:18:21 AM »

Emerson was pretty good in 2018.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1065314660759429120
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: August 11, 2020, 11:25:29 AM »


There is no universe where BIden is up 8-10 nationally and winning MN by only 2 or 3.
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Annatar
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« Reply #7 on: August 11, 2020, 11:28:25 AM »


There is no universe where BIden is up 8-10 nationally and winning MN by only 2 or 3.

I'm not talking about how MN will vote vs the nation, just that Emerson was pretty accurate in 2018.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #8 on: August 11, 2020, 11:35:58 AM »

Certainly looks a little too R-friendly, but MN trending Republican really should surprise no one. I also think itís absurd how differently this board views WI and MN, to say nothing of MI and WI/PA (all of these states arenít going to be that far apart, and I donít expect Peters and Smith to outperform Biden by a lot, if at all).

Iíd rate WI/MI/PA/MN all Lean D.
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Chips
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« Reply #9 on: August 11, 2020, 11:41:50 AM »

Minnesota seems very likely to go to Biden right now but if Trump is back within the margin of error of Biden in the polling MN will likely be in play.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #10 on: August 11, 2020, 11:41:53 AM »

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MplsDem
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« Reply #11 on: August 11, 2020, 11:44:48 AM »

Just glancing at the sample, the breakdown by CD seems screwy.  There's no way that the most votes in the state will come from CD7, and it's equally unlikely that the fewest votes will come from CD4.
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MplsDem
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« Reply #12 on: August 11, 2020, 12:04:51 PM »

Also can we talk about how according to this poll, 91% of voters voting by mail support Biden, and 68% of those voting in person support Trump? I get that you would expect early voters to skew left and election day voters to skew right, but those numbers seem extreme.
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Buzz
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« Reply #13 on: August 11, 2020, 12:07:57 PM »

A- pollster.  Credible and should be noted.
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Horus
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« Reply #14 on: August 11, 2020, 12:09:20 PM »

Minnesota will go to Trump.
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Badger
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« Reply #15 on: August 11, 2020, 12:12:21 PM »


There is no universe where BIden is up 8-10 nationally and winning MN by only 2 or 3.

I'm not talking about how MN will vote vs the nation, just that Emerson was pretty accurate in 2018.

Your clear implication is that this poll is accurate. It is not. End of discussion.
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WD
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« Reply #16 on: August 11, 2020, 12:13:44 PM »

Absolute trash. Throw it out.
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MplsDem
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« Reply #17 on: August 11, 2020, 12:29:02 PM »

A- pollster.  Credible and should be noted.

As noted earlier in this thread, Emerson's methodology has changed so significantly in the last year that it's really not the same pollster as in 2018 and earlier.  So the rating doesn't mean much.
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BigSerg
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« Reply #18 on: August 11, 2020, 01:07:33 PM »


There is no universe where BIden is up 8-10 nationally and winning MN by only 2 or 3.

That's because obviously Biden won't win by that margin, only an idiot thinks that.
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TC 25
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« Reply #19 on: August 11, 2020, 03:51:32 PM »

This meshes with what I am seeing in Minnesota.   People are tired of the crazy restrictions imposed by Gov. Walz, including the mask sham, and the riots have disgusted the bulk of the state.  This state will be decided by 2-3 points at most either way.
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BobbieMac
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« Reply #20 on: August 11, 2020, 04:16:03 PM »

Emerson thinks it is Biden +4 nationally anyway so this lines up.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #21 on: August 11, 2020, 06:08:18 PM »

The Harris slump is happening already!?

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ctrepublican512
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« Reply #22 on: August 11, 2020, 08:48:32 PM »

Looks pretty laughable. However, if Trump wins, I feel like MN would be a part of that 270+. But he's not winning, fingers crossed.
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solidcoalition
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« Reply #23 on: August 11, 2020, 08:57:14 PM »

Biden wins but probably tightening
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Spark
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« Reply #24 on: August 11, 2020, 09:37:40 PM »


Saw another poll that had Biden up 51-49. Things are certainly tightening.
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