WTF happened in Arkansas in 1980?
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  WTF happened in Arkansas in 1980?
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Author Topic: WTF happened in Arkansas in 1980?  (Read 1717 times)
Alben Barkley
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« on: August 11, 2020, 12:00:12 AM »
« edited: August 11, 2020, 12:03:53 AM by Alben Barkley »

Was Jimmy Carter’s crash in Arkansas from 1976 to 1980 the most dramatic state swing ever in one election cycle? He went from winning it by 30 points in 1976, 65-35 (he only did better, barely, in Georgia itself), to losing the state in 1980.

The weird thing is neighboring states Mississippi and Louisiana barely shifted at all — they were Carter’s closest wins in the South in 1976, and among his closest losses in 1980. Same goes for Kentucky. Alabama, Tennesse, and the Carolinas shifted sharply, but he still barely lost them and his wins there weren’t as huge in 1976 anyway. Meanwhile Georgia and West Virginia, his other two really strong Southern states in 1976, stuck with him comfortably in 1980. Arkansas was the odd one out for its insane swing of over 30 points.

What happened? Arkansas you would have expected to be the last state besides Georgia to flip in 1980, yet several others held out while it flipped.

Oh and of course Bill Clinton also narrowly lost the governor’s mansion that year, only to regain it two years later. So not only did Arkansas turn rapidly and heavily against Carter, his crash seems to have affected downballot races as well.
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Computer89
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« Reply #1 on: August 11, 2020, 12:36:26 AM »

Arkansas was also considered safe for Carter in 1980 and Reagan barley contested it
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Pericles
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« Reply #2 on: August 11, 2020, 02:03:25 AM »

I think it's been claimed that Carter's decision to send thousands of Cuban refugees to western Arkansas hurt both him and Clinton.
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #3 on: August 11, 2020, 06:31:46 AM »

Clinton hurt himself as well--his push of increasing the tax for auto registration was unpopular, and in the primary, he gave up more than 30 percent of the vote to a nonentity.  He knew he was in some trouble.  And the Hillary effect played a role as well--not very popular with the conservative Arkansas crod.  The Clinton reinvented themselves (and would continue to do so) to win again in Arkansas for the rest of the 1980s.

But no doubt the Cuban refugee issue and their placement at Fort Chaffee contributed significantly to the major decline of the Democrats in 1980 in Arkansas.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #4 on: August 12, 2020, 10:01:27 AM »

IIRC it was a surprise flip because all the models at the time projected it to vote Carter.
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ultraviolet
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« Reply #5 on: August 12, 2020, 01:43:30 PM »
« Edited: August 12, 2020, 01:51:10 PM by ultraviolet »

Georgia swung from Nixon +50 to Carter +34 lol. Every single county flipped from red to blue
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I Will Not Be Wrong
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« Reply #6 on: August 12, 2020, 01:46:33 PM »

Plus if I can remember correctly there was a serious drought that year in the state.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #7 on: August 19, 2020, 02:30:01 PM »

Carter could have hit 70% if he hadn’t promised to pardon draft dodgers. Believe it or not, that issue hurt him in the South.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #8 on: August 19, 2020, 03:58:01 PM »

Arkansas’s relatively small black population was one of the reasons the state swung further than the rest of the South.  Reagan performed worse among AAs than Ford, which was why Mississippi barely swung.
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« Reply #9 on: September 29, 2020, 05:36:48 AM »

Carter could have hit 70% if he hadn’t promised to pardon draft dodgers. Believe it or not, that issue hurt him in the South.
It also probably won Carter the election by securing Wisconsin and Ohio in Carters column (in 1976).
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #10 on: September 29, 2020, 06:13:58 AM »

I will go with the Cuban boat-lift concept and how that played within Arkansas...




Naturally Southern White Evangelicals were rapidly jumping on the Reagan Train...

Iran and Oil Crisis was also hitting hard....

Perfect storm against Jimmy Carter, and plus John Anderson was rolling strong in many parts of the Country (Fond memories of '80s as a young kid before the Reagan / Fascist conquest of America as a Young Child)....
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Chips
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« Reply #11 on: September 29, 2020, 07:19:52 AM »

Arkansas economy was particularly hit hard.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #12 on: September 30, 2020, 06:55:59 AM »

Carter could have hit 70% if he hadn’t promised to pardon draft dodgers. Believe it or not, that issue hurt him in the South.
That was 1976, not 1980. In fact, in 1980 Reagan ran on abolishing Selective Service.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #13 on: October 01, 2020, 02:57:16 PM »

Hey, shouldn't this be moved to the Election Results board?
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« Reply #14 on: October 06, 2020, 07:13:44 PM »

It was the Cubans. My mom was studying to become a journalist back then and remembers the hatred of the Americans in Arkansas towards the Cuban prisoners sent over there.
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