1996 without the “Dole-Gingrich” budget

[darklordoftech]

What would the 1996 map look like if Dole blocked Gingrich’s budget or Gingrich never proposed or failed to pass that budget?

[dw93]

What would the 1996 map look like if Dole blocked Gingrich’s budget or Gingrich never proposed or failed to pass that budget?

A slightly closer Clinton win than OTL. I can't see, barring a major scandal with traction, any Republican outside of Colin Powell defeating Bill Clinton in 1996, but not having that budget or the Govt. shutdown does help the GOP a bit.

[Alben Barkley]

There was no stopping Bill that year. Dole was a sacrificial lamb. Economy was starting to roar, Bill was on the upswing. It was kinda like 1984 in that regard. Some boring dude who ran for VP before in the other party was never gonna stop the popular, charismatic incumbent. In fact I’d say 1996 was the last year the outcome was absolutely certain most of the way through. 2008 was pretty clear after the financial crisis really hit but not quite as much early on. Dole never had a shot.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

There was no stopping Bill that year. Dole was a sacrificial lamb. Economy was starting to roar, Bill was on the upswing. It was kinda like 1984 in that regard. Some boring dude who ran for VP before in the other party was never gonna stop the popular, charismatic incumbent. In fact I’d say 1996 was the last year the outcome was absolutely certain most of the way through. 2008 was pretty clear after the financial crisis really hit but not quite as much early on. Dole never had a shot.

If it's comparable to 1984 though, why did Clinton not only not experience a 1984/1964-esque sweep but actually lose a few states he won in 1992?  That question's always irked me.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

There was no stopping Bill that year. Dole was a sacrificial lamb. Economy was starting to roar, Bill was on the upswing. It was kinda like 1984 in that regard. Some boring dude who ran for VP before in the other party was never gonna stop the popular, charismatic incumbent. In fact I’d say 1996 was the last year the outcome was absolutely certain most of the way through. 2008 was pretty clear after the financial crisis really hit but not quite as much early on. Dole never had a shot.

If it's comparable to 1984 though, why did Clinton not only not experience a 1984/1964-esque sweep but actually lose a few states he won in 1992?  That question's always irked me.

1. Dem turnout collapse-Clinton had it in the bag
2. Good GOP turnout hoping to keep Congress
3. Even before Lewinsky scandal, a lot of people thought Clinton was a sleaze bag...
4. Dole still did worse than any Republican in the modern era not named Barry Goldwater

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

There was no stopping Bill that year. Dole was a sacrificial lamb. Economy was starting to roar, Bill was on the upswing. It was kinda like 1984 in that regard. Some boring dude who ran for VP before in the other party was never gonna stop the popular, charismatic incumbent. In fact I’d say 1996 was the last year the outcome was absolutely certain most of the way through. 2008 was pretty clear after the financial crisis really hit but not quite as much early on. Dole never had a shot.

If it's comparable to 1984 though, why did Clinton not only not experience a 1984/1964-esque sweep but actually lose a few states he won in 1992?  That question's always irked me.

1. Dem turnout collapse-Clinton had it in the bag
2. Good GOP turnout hoping to keep Congress
3. Even before Lewinsky scandal, a lot of people thought Clinton was a sleaze bag...
4. Dole still did worse than any Republican in the modern era not named Barry Goldwater

Many years ago I read a book that covered the 1994 midterms to Clinton's reelection.  If memory serves, Democrats wanted Clinton to make part of the election about retaking Congress but he turned them down.  Maybe because bipartisanship was still in vogue and Clinton figured he'd have a smoother second term with the opposition controlling Congress, especially after Dick Morris pushed him to the right.