AZ-Trafalgar: Trump+1

[Hammy]

So Biden is actually up by 7. Nice.

Came here to post this. Arizona was one of Trafalgar's worst performances in 2018 and managed to under-poll Dems by five points.

[Hammy]

I know that Trafalgar got it right in 2016, but now that pollsters are compensating for the errors they made in 2016 (esp. weights by education), Trafalgar's polls having a consistent slant for GOP candidates should make us treat them like R internals at this point.

They did well in some places, and poorly in others.

MI/PA/FL and I believe Wisconsin (I can't recall if they polled there in 2016) were very accurate but they had an awful R slant in AZ/NV/TX/GA and D slant in OH.

They're still good to watch in those states they did well in.

[Hammy]

I wish we would stop talking about accuracy of pollsters, especially pollsters with lower quality methods, in previous elections.  When we talk about accuracy we are only looking at the last poll a polling outfit released for a given election.

What's to stop partisan polling outfits from releasing shady polls throughout the election cycle (pushing a narrative favorable to their party) only to revert to acceptible/normal practices for their final polls (on which they are judged)?

I'm not as cynical as most, but given how polarized our country has become and given what we have seen out of some polling outfits recently, I can't rule this out. 

By that logic we should just stop talking about polls entirely.