RMG Research/U.S. Term Limits: Gideon +7

[MT Treasurer]

Republicans can’t beat a Democratic Senator in a Trump +42 state while the last blue state Republican with a history of winning absolute landslides is trailing in a Clinton +3 state. I’d say any "asymmetric electoral polarization" in blue vs. red states more than negates the Democrats' "small state problem" in the Senate.

That said, I’m not going to move it to Lean D because of this particular "Term Limits" poll, especially when other recent polls have indicated a much closer race. It’s obvious that Collins is in big trouble, though.

[MT Treasurer]

The "small state problem", however, doesn't change just because Democrats run better candidates. And I'm not even saying the senate should be made up differently, even though Puerto Rico and DC should be granted statehood.

Running better candidates is only part of the story (Gideon really isn’t that strong, I’d say). The biggest problem is Trump/Republican voters simply being much more likely to split their ticket/elect a Senator from the other party than Democratic voters.

There’s no way a Republican equivalent of Jason Kander or Doug Jones would have even kept it close. Heck, Hugin who ran against a scumbag barely did better than Trump, and Republicans couldn’t even hold NH-SEN 2016 where Clinton won by less than .5%.

[MT Treasurer]

Baker won his last election with a lead of 33 points. He would not win a Senate seat in the Trump era, but with Biden in office, he’s a decent comparison to Kander.

I don’t think Baker could ever come this close except maybe in a special election (even then, probably not), but even that’s not the best comparison because Kander almost beat Blunt with Obama in office.

Jones is a special case and will lose badly this November.

He’ll still outperform Biden by a lot, much more than most blue state Republican Senators who lost in recent elections.

Menendez is scum, but the electorate has long been more forgiving of the corrupt than sexual predators.

Menendez won an easy double-digit victory, he could have been accused of things far worse than that and would have still won. (Republicans were foolish for targeting this seat when they could have focused on MT/WV instead, and I also don’t buy that this seat would have been competitive in a Clinton midterm.)

FTFY

Fixed.