Georgetown U: Biden +13

[wbrocks67]

Once you re-weight it, you get Biden +8/10 which is... exactly on the margins of what we've been seeing

But what’s the GCB?

Would be D+1 or D+3 if the shift was the same as on the presidential after re-weighting.

Which, however, makes no sense..

[Annatar]

Once you re-weight it, you get Biden +8/10 which is... exactly on the margins of what we've been seeing

But what’s the GCB?

Would be D+1 or D+3 if the shift was the same as on the presidential after re-weighting.

Which, however, makes no sense..

I agree, I would be surprised to see more than a 3% difference at most between the house vote and presidential vote. The difference in 2008 was 3.4%, in 2012 it was 2.7% and 3.2% in 2016.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Once you re-weight it, you get Biden +8/10 which is... exactly on the margins of what we've been seeing

But what’s the GCB?

Would be D+1 or D+3 if the shift was the same as on the presidential after re-weighting.

Which, however, makes no sense..

The NBC/WSJ poll was Biden +11 but had the congressional ballot only D +4.

[wbrocks67]

Once you re-weight it, you get Biden +8/10 which is... exactly on the margins of what we've been seeing

But what’s the GCB?

Would be D+1 or D+3 if the shift was the same as on the presidential after re-weighting.

Which, however, makes no sense..

The NBC/WSJ poll was Biden +11 but had the congressional ballot only D +4.

Right, and then meanwhile, we had YouGov at Biden +9 but GCB at D+12. So at this point, the average (D+8) seems about on point

[Horus]

I wish

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonBrownstein/status/1292919671239237632