LV screen actually helps Biden here:
Biden’s lead is even larger when limiting the analysis to only registered voters who say they are
“certain” to vote. Among them, Biden leads by five points in Michigan (50-45), ten in
Pennsylvania (52-42), and eight in Wisconsin (52-44).
I feel like the CW is that LV helps Rs, but I feel like this year will be different. Not to mention, Ds outdid their polling average in 2018 too.
The initial switch from RV to LV almost always results in a tightening that everyone freaks out about, before typically the Democrat improves as Election Day nears.
