YouGov: PA (Biden+9), WI (Biden +6), MI (Biden +4)

[wbrocks67]

Michigan
Biden 47
Trump 43
Other/DK 11

Pennsylvania
Biden 50
Trump 41
Other/DK 8

Wisconsin
Biden 49
Trump 43
Other/DK 8

https://elections.wisc.edu/second-2020-election-survey/

Trump job approval
Michigan: 42/55 (-13)
Pennsylvania: 44/52 (-8)
Wisconsin: 42/55 (-13)

[wbrocks67]

PA lines up with what we've seen from other High quality pollsters, while Wisconsin is the exact result that the CBS/YouGov result got.

Michigan, however, is weird, since we also have a -13 approval for Trump there. But I guess this balances out the other like Biden +15 polls we've gotten there

[SingingAnalyst]

A sample size of 800 yields a MoE of 3.5%, so MI could be anything from Trump+3 to Biden+11.

I'd be a bit surprised if WI ends up more Dem than MI.

[Rand]

Another Biden underperformance in Pennsylvania. Sad.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This proves any doubters that Biden will flip all 3 states

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh, MI isn't voting to the right of PA and WI. Especially not compared to PA by this amount.

[wbrocks67]

Ugh, MI isn't voting to the right of PA and WI. Especially not compared to PA by this amount.

YouGov's national poll has been pretty on the mark the last few months (Biden +9), but their state polls have been kind of wonky.

[redjohn]

I don't think these results would be very surprising, even if they voted for Biden in this order. Would line up with a Biden+7 NPV pretty well.

[Gass3268]

LV screen actually helps Biden here:

Biden’s lead is even larger when limiting the analysis to only registered voters who say they are
“certain” to vote. Among them, Biden leads by five points in Michigan (50-45), ten in
Pennsylvania (52-42), and eight in Wisconsin (52-44).

[Gass3268]

Also interesting that these a panel polls:

https://twitter.com/bcburden/status/1292835146698305542?s=20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A sample size of 800 yields a MoE of 3.5%, so MI could be anything from Trump+3 to Biden+11.

I'd be a bit surprised if WI ends up more Dem than MI.

Trump isnt winning any of the three states

[wbrocks67]

LV screen actually helps Biden here:

Biden’s lead is even larger when limiting the analysis to only registered voters who say they are
“certain” to vote. Among them, Biden leads by five points in Michigan (50-45), ten in
Pennsylvania (52-42), and eight in Wisconsin (52-44).

I feel like the CW is that LV helps Rs, but I feel like this year will be different. Not to mention, Ds outdid their polling average in 2018 too.

[Gass3268]

LV screen actually helps Biden here:

Biden’s lead is even larger when limiting the analysis to only registered voters who say they are
“certain” to vote. Among them, Biden leads by five points in Michigan (50-45), ten in
Pennsylvania (52-42), and eight in Wisconsin (52-44).

I feel like the CW is that LV helps Rs, but I feel like this year will be different. Not to mention, Ds outdid their polling average in 2018 too.

The initial switch from RV to LV almost always results in a tightening that everyone freaks out about, before typically the Democrat improves as Election Day nears.

[Xing]

Michigan definitely could vote slightly to the right of PA/WI, but not by 5 points.

[Yoda]

Not buying the MI numbers at all. Every good poll for months has had it at least Biden +10.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I wish I could celebrate this poll, but I just can't buy the Michigan result.

[MT Treasurer]

I’ve never really understood why people think Trump should abandon MI as if he could afford to lose the state badly because he’s in a much better position in other swing states. He’s not winning WI/PA/AZ if MI is "gone" for him.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I’ve never really understood why people think Trump should abandon MI as if he could afford to lose the state badly because he’s in a much better position in other swing states. He’s not winning WI/PA/AZ if MI is "gone" for him.

Thank you. If Trump loses Michigan, he loses the presidency. Period.