Has the upper limit on Presidential candidate ages been hit?
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  Has the upper limit on Presidential candidate ages been hit?
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Author Topic: Has the upper limit on Presidential candidate ages been hit?  (Read 1489 times)
Former Crackhead Mike Lindell
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« on: August 07, 2020, 11:58:47 PM »

Or might we soon see people mounting campaigns into their 80s?

Trump and Biden are in their mid-to-late 70s. The runner-up to the Democratic nomination is even older.

Is 2020 the peak?

People are living longer. In-person campaigning has been scaled down in a big way this year - who knows how and when it'll come back.

Will an 81-year-old Newt Gingrich try for the Republican nomination in 2024? Will an incumbent 83-year-old Biden run for re-election?

Will we *ever* stop having Presidents born in the 1940s?

And, just for fun: who are the *most likely* octogenarians to run in 2024 - on both sides?
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2020, 03:36:29 AM »

The most likely octogenarian to run as a Democrat in 2024 is self-explanatory.
The most likely octogenerian to run as a Republican in 2024 is much less obvious but to be fair you probably nailed it with Newt Gingrich, although there is 99.9% chance that no octogenarian will run.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2020, 05:41:25 AM »

The Prime Minister of Malaysia just retired this very year at age 95, so I'd say no. Hell, everyone seems to think Biden will be a 1 term president, but I personally think Biden will run for reelection in 2024 (if he is elected in the first place in 2020 of course)
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2020, 08:05:17 AM »

The Prime Minister of Malaysia just retired this very year at age 95, so I'd say no. Hell, everyone seems to think Biden will be a 1 term president, but I personally think Biden will run for reelection in 2024 (if he is elected in the first place in 2020 of course)

I think the most likely scenario is his VP runs a campaign that explicitly describes itself as "four more years of a Biden administration, just without the Biden."
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #4 on: August 08, 2020, 11:02:14 AM »

The Prime Minister of Malaysia just retired this very year at age 95, so I'd say no. Hell, everyone seems to think Biden will be a 1 term president, but I personally think Biden will run for reelection in 2024 (if he is elected in the first place in 2020 of course)

The fact that he often speaks in his speeches of what he'll do "in my first 4 years" & "in my 1st term" would seem to imply he'll definitely be seeking a 2nd 4-year term if he's able to.
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KYRockefeller
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« Reply #5 on: August 08, 2020, 12:48:45 PM »

Biden could run for re-election in 2024, but I have to think you'd get a primary challenge against him simply on his age alone.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #6 on: August 08, 2020, 12:52:38 PM »

Biden could run for re-election in 2024, but I have to think you'd get a primary challenge against him simply on his age alone.

One would also have to think that such a primary challenge would immensely backfire if Biden's been demonstrating that he's healthy, vigorous, & fit enough to continue successfully executing the duties of the Presidency.
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MABA 2020
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« Reply #7 on: August 09, 2020, 09:38:08 AM »

The Prime Minister of Malaysia just retired this very year at age 95, so I'd say no. Hell, everyone seems to think Biden will be a 1 term president, but I personally think Biden will run for reelection in 2024 (if he is elected in the first place in 2020 of course)

The fact that he often speaks in his speeches of what he'll do "in my first 4 years" & "in my 1st term" would seem to imply he'll definitely be seeking a 2nd 4-year term if he's able to.

He obviously can't state he'll be a one term president in advance, that would make him look old/weak.  The presidency is a very demanding job when you have a president that does more than just golf every weekend, I can't imagine Biden lasting 8 years at his age and he's said he see's himself as a bridge to the future which implies he intends to set up his young, female veep for 2024.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #8 on: August 09, 2020, 09:43:39 AM »

The Prime Minister of Malaysia just retired this very year at age 95, so I'd say no. Hell, everyone seems to think Biden will be a 1 term president, but I personally think Biden will run for reelection in 2024 (if he is elected in the first place in 2020 of course)

The fact that he often speaks in his speeches of what he'll do "in my first 4 years" & "in my 1st term" would seem to imply he'll definitely be seeking a 2nd 4-year term if he's able to.

He obviously can't state he'll be a one term president in advance, that would make him look old/weak.  The presidency is a very demanding job when you have a president that does more than just golf every weekend, I can't imagine Biden lasting 8 years at his age and he's said he see's himself as a bridge to the future which implies he intends to set up his young, female veep for 2024.

Eh, I really don't think Biden's 4D chess-ing every small line throughout most of his speeches, as would seem to be implied by just saying that "he's not gonna state in advance that he'll be a one-term president." Occam's razor-ing it, he probably intends on seeking a 2nd term - again - if he's able to (that is, if he's healthy, vigorous, & fit enough to continue successfully executing the duties of the Presidency), but if he can't, then the Democratic Party's next generation will be well-equipped to take over early.
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MABA 2020
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« Reply #9 on: August 09, 2020, 10:13:18 AM »

The Prime Minister of Malaysia just retired this very year at age 95, so I'd say no. Hell, everyone seems to think Biden will be a 1 term president, but I personally think Biden will run for reelection in 2024 (if he is elected in the first place in 2020 of course)

The fact that he often speaks in his speeches of what he'll do "in my first 4 years" & "in my 1st term" would seem to imply he'll definitely be seeking a 2nd 4-year term if he's able to.

He obviously can't state he'll be a one term president in advance, that would make him look old/weak.  The presidency is a very demanding job when you have a president that does more than just golf every weekend, I can't imagine Biden lasting 8 years at his age and he's said he see's himself as a bridge to the future which implies he intends to set up his young, female veep for 2024.

Eh, I really don't think Biden's 4D chess-ing every small line throughout most of his speeches, as would seem to be implied by just saying that "he's not gonna state in advance that he'll be a one-term president." Occam's razor-ing it, he probably intends on seeking a 2nd term - again - if he's able to (that is, if he's healthy, vigorous, & fit enough to continue successfully executing the duties of the Presidency), but if he can't, then the Democratic Party's next generation will be well-equipped to take over early.

Hmm okay, I suppose Biden is probably hoping to run for a second term but I still think after two years as president he will start to feel the strain and decide to not run, but hey who knows? Maybe 80 is the new 60
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #10 on: August 09, 2020, 10:43:49 AM »
« Edited: August 09, 2020, 10:56:47 AM by Anarcho-Statism »

I could feasibly see a president in his 80s right now if he has his faculties, and possibly older in the future with someone who's lived the right lifestyle and has the medical technologies potentially available to the rich. I expect the medical field to get more funding and recruits as a result of this pandemic, so maybe the means to be at least mentally fit into your 100s will come sooner than we expect. But that's just near future sci-fi.

For the guy who recommended this comment, sorry man, I'm not talking about Biden when I say this.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #11 on: August 09, 2020, 11:58:48 AM »

I could feasibly see a president in his 80s right now if he has his faculties, and possibly older in the future with someone who's lived the right lifestyle and has the medical technologies potentially available to the rich. I expect the medical field to get more funding and recruits as a result of this pandemic, so maybe the means to be at least mentally fit into your 100s will come sooner than we expect. But that's just near future sci-fi.

For the guy who recommended this comment, sorry man, I'm not talking about Biden when I say this.

"Vice President Biden is a healthy, vigorous, 77-year-old male, who is fit to successfully execute the duties of the Presidency, to include those as Chief Executive, Head of State and Commander in Chief." - Dr. Kevin C. O'Connor, D.O., FAAFP
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Former Crackhead Mike Lindell
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« Reply #12 on: August 10, 2020, 01:46:22 AM »

Every fit and healthy old person is fit and healthy until they aren't and then they die
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #13 on: August 10, 2020, 05:53:10 AM »

In the short term, I don't think non-incumbents at age 81 are likely to be electable as presidential candidates in the current era. In the long term (perhaps a couple of decades?) I think the "soft cap" will slowly rise towards 90 as a significant minority of superagers have alawys remained capable of running up until then. People like the current Malaysian PM who can keep going well into their 90s are astonishingly rare, though.

In the really long term, I'm an optimist about ways in which we might learn to change the ageing process, and if that's vindicated, the limit will go through the roof. Tongue
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #14 on: August 10, 2020, 07:11:28 AM »

Something I noticed the other day from a Discord conversation on Spanish politics was this.

Felipe González was the 3rd democratic PM of Spain. He became leader of the Socialist Party in 1974; first ran for election in 1977 (the first democratic election in Spain since the 2nd Republic). He won in 1982 and ruled for 4 terms until 1996 when he finally lost.

Gonzalez was also born the same year as Joe Biden.

Although in fairness to Biden, he was elected to the Senate for the first time in 1972, so he had an even earlier start to his career. Still his career has been quite long, most people his age would have already retired.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #15 on: August 10, 2020, 04:51:35 PM »

Something I noticed the other day from a Discord conversation on Spanish politics was this.

Felipe González was the 3rd democratic PM of Spain. He became leader of the Socialist Party in 1974; first ran for election in 1977 (the first democratic election in Spain since the 2nd Republic). He won in 1982 and ruled for 4 terms until 1996 when he finally lost.

Gonzalez was also born the same year as Joe Biden.

Although in fairness to Biden, he was elected to the Senate for the first time in 1972, so he had an even earlier start to his career. Still his career has been quite long, most people his age would have already retired.

Giovanni Goria, born one year later than Joe Biden, was Head of Government in Italy from 1987 to 1988.
Sadly he died in 1994 from lung cancer.
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MarkD
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« Reply #16 on: August 13, 2020, 07:00:42 PM »

We have had two Supreme Court Justices retire from the office at age 90, and a Chief Justice who died in office at age 87. Representative John Dingell, Jr. retired from the House at age 88, and Senator Carl Hayden retired at the age of 91.

So I think there will be nothing wrong with Joe Biden running for re-election when he's 81-going-on-82, and serving for two whole terms, surviving in office until he retires at age 86.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #17 on: August 13, 2020, 08:07:50 PM »

Biden could run for re-election in 2024, but I have to think you'd get a primary challenge against him simply on his age alone.

Yang's all but declared his candidacy already.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #18 on: August 13, 2020, 08:43:30 PM »

Biden could run for re-election in 2024, but I have to think you'd get a primary challenge against him simply on his age alone.

Yang's all but declared his candidacy already.

He said he'd consider challenging Biden if Biden didn't seek to "solve the problems that... are wrecking our lives & communities," not because he'll be 82.
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morgieb
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« Reply #19 on: August 14, 2020, 12:19:57 AM »

Something I noticed the other day from a Discord conversation on Spanish politics was this.

Felipe González was the 3rd democratic PM of Spain. He became leader of the Socialist Party in 1974; first ran for election in 1977 (the first democratic election in Spain since the 2nd Republic). He won in 1982 and ruled for 4 terms until 1996 when he finally lost.

Gonzalez was also born the same year as Joe Biden.

Although in fairness to Biden, he was elected to the Senate for the first time in 1972, so he had an even earlier start to his career. Still his career has been quite long, most people his age would have already retired.
One of my favourite facts is that Paul Keating is younger than Biden. And he was the clear cut #2 to Hawke as early as 1983....
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #20 on: August 14, 2020, 01:41:42 AM »

Not at all. So obviously Biden could run for another term in 2024 and he'll be 86 by the end of it. But I could also see, in the future, some even older candidates for president. The average life expectancy of a U.S. president seems to be pretty high (every one of them since Ford has reached 90 if they're not younger than that right now). Same thing for First Ladies - 6/9 of the most recent ones (who aren't younger now) have hit 90.

Electing geriatric leaders was pretty rare here until recently though but it's been going on for a while in other parts of the world. While ignoring the obvious (dictators who can't dare to give up power) you'll see examples like Mahathir Mohamad who was serving as Malaysian PM at 95. I wouldn't at all be surprised if we get a president elected for the first time over 80 pretty soon.
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« Reply #21 on: August 14, 2020, 10:42:13 AM »

I don't think so. Bernie Sanders will probably run and win in 2028, and in 2036 I won't be surprised if Carter decides to again and get his second term at age 112. We still have another 2-3 silent generation presidents to go, because the Boomers aren't well liked.
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« Reply #22 on: August 14, 2020, 10:47:41 PM »

As medical practices continue to improve, and as we learn more about diseases and aging, we could expect to see eighty year old candidates much more frequently.  But we can also expect some younger Kennedy-Clinton-Obama types too, particularly among Democrats.  I was curious, so I added the ages of candidates since 1960.  The average age of Democratic candidates has been about 55.  The average age of Republicans has been about 64.  Trump 2020 and Biden are both the oldest in their respective parties.  Bush 43 in 2000 was the youngest Republican at 54.  Kennedy was the youngest Democrat at 43.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #23 on: August 19, 2020, 05:26:04 PM »

Perhaps. The first person born in 1942 to take office as a head of state was Gaddafi in 1969.
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« Reply #24 on: August 19, 2020, 06:19:35 PM »

Hope so. No president should be over the age of 75. Trump is already too old, and Reagan in his second term was experiencing the onset of dementia. Biden might not even make it through his first term if elected and a second term would be a joke. Biden has literally said himself he is a "transition candidate" which would imply that he's here to beat Trump and then hand the party over to the Kamala's and the Pete's of the world, which is what will probably happen.
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