Former President tack50
tack50
Atlas Politician
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Posts: 11,880
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« on: August 08, 2020, 05:10:19 AM » |
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Yeah, Montenegro is by far the most likely to join, but even they have serious problems. I do think that Montenegro entering the EU by 2030 or something is possible, albeit unlikely.
The only other realistic candidate is Serbia. However, Serbia has 2 big problems. Obviously one is the unavoidable issue of what to do with Kosovo. Serbia will likely never recognize Kosovo's independence. Meanwhile, the EU itself is divided on the issue. While most of the EU recognizes Kosovo, 5 EU countries do not and still recognize it as Serbian territory: Spain, Greece, Cyprus, Romania and Slovakia. And remember accession needs to be unanimous so if the EU can't get a joint position on that, it gets harder.
I think the proposed Serbian solution is to treat Kosovo as one of those weird areas that are independent from the EU (like Greenland) or a solution similar to that of current Cyprus, but I don't think those would work.
However, even if the Kosovo issue got sorted out, Serbia still has a serious democratic deficit, being quite a bit worse on that regard than even Orban's Hungary. So I don't think Serbia is joining any time soon, but it is still a possibility that they join in say, 2035 or 2040 if they sort both those issues.
Since the EU likes to do joint accession, Serbia & Montenegro joining together in 2035 is possible, albeit unlikely.
The rest (Bosnia, Macedonia and Kosovo) are essencially impossible to join any time soon. Maybe if they worked exclusively towards that goal they could make it, but it would still take at least 15-20 years and it is unrealistic that they'd fix everything wrong in those countries in such a short amount of time.
Really, the EU has ran out of realistic accession candidates. I suppose if Catalonia or Scotland ever become independent they are strong candidates to join the EU. Or alternatively if Iceland or Norway ever ask they would be welcomed with open arms (I think Iceland was considering it, but ended up not joining)
I think San Marino was considering joining the EU proper as well but got rejected due to being too small?
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