Former Yugoslavian Aspirants to the European Union

[Frodo]

Slovenia and Croatia are already members.



It's an old map from four years ago (so it doesn't reflect Macedonia's name change), but it's the one I like best. 

[urutzizu]

Well the one "most likely", relatively speaking, is what amounts to Europe's very own narco state, ruled by the same "pro-european" "social-democratic" Prime Minister/President/Prime Minister/President/Drug Lord in Chief in some capacity for the last three decades, so that should tell you about as much as you need to know about the state of West Balkan accession talks.

[Beezer]

Albania?

[Former President tack50]

Yeah, Montenegro is by far the most likely to join, but even they have serious problems. I do think that Montenegro entering the EU by 2030 or something is possible, albeit unlikely.

The only other realistic candidate is Serbia. However, Serbia has 2 big problems. Obviously one is the unavoidable issue of what to do with Kosovo. Serbia will likely never recognize Kosovo's independence. Meanwhile, the EU itself is divided on the issue. While most of the EU recognizes Kosovo, 5 EU countries do not and still recognize it as Serbian territory: Spain, Greece, Cyprus, Romania and Slovakia. And remember accession needs to be unanimous so if the EU can't get a joint position on that, it gets harder.

I think the proposed Serbian solution is to treat Kosovo as one of those weird areas that are independent from the EU (like Greenland) or a solution similar to that of current Cyprus, but I don't think those would work.

However, even if the Kosovo issue got sorted out, Serbia still has a serious democratic deficit, being quite a bit worse on that regard than even Orban's Hungary. So I don't think Serbia is joining any time soon, but it is still a possibility that they join in say, 2035 or 2040 if they sort both those issues.

Since the EU likes to do joint accession, Serbia & Montenegro joining together in 2035 is possible, albeit unlikely.

The rest (Bosnia, Macedonia and Kosovo) are essencially impossible to join any time soon. Maybe if they worked exclusively towards that goal they could make it, but it would still take at least 15-20 years and it is unrealistic that they'd fix everything wrong in those countries in such a short amount of time.

Really, the EU has ran out of realistic accession candidates. I suppose if Catalonia or Scotland ever become independent they are strong candidates to join the EU. Or alternatively if Iceland or Norway ever ask they would be welcomed with open arms (I think Iceland was considering it, but ended up not joining)

I think San Marino was considering joining the EU proper as well but got rejected due to being too small?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Yeah, Montenegro is by far the most likely to join, but even they have serious problems. I do think that Montenegro entering the EU by 2030 or something is possible, albeit unlikely.

The only other realistic candidate is Serbia. However, Serbia has 2 big problems. Obviously one is the unavoidable issue of what to do with Kosovo. Serbia will likely never recognize Kosovo's independence. Meanwhile, the EU itself is divided on the issue. While most of the EU recognizes Kosovo, 5 EU countries do not and still recognize it as Serbian territory: Spain, Greece, Cyprus, Romania and Slovakia. And remember accession needs to be unanimous so if the EU can't get a joint position on that, it gets harder.

I think the proposed Serbian solution is to treat Kosovo as one of those weird areas that are independent from the EU (like Greenland) or a solution similar to that of current Cyprus, but I don't think those would work.

However, even if the Kosovo issue got sorted out, Serbia still has a serious democratic deficit, being quite a bit worse on that regard than even Orban's Hungary. So I don't think Serbia is joining any time soon, but it is still a possibility that they join in say, 2035 or 2040 if they sort both those issues.

Since the EU likes to do joint accession, Serbia & Montenegro joining together in 2035 is possible, albeit unlikely.

The rest (Bosnia, Macedonia and Kosovo) are essencially impossible to join any time soon. Maybe if they worked exclusively towards that goal they could make it, but it would still take at least 15-20 years and it is unrealistic that they'd fix everything wrong in those countries in such a short amount of time.

Really, the EU has ran out of realistic accession candidates. I suppose if Catalonia or Scotland ever become independent they are strong candidates to join the EU. Or alternatively if Iceland or Norway ever ask they would be welcomed with open arms (I think Iceland was considering it, but ended up not joining)

I think San Marino was considering joining the EU proper as well but got rejected due to being too small?

I am far from an expert but my understanding is that as long as it can use euro and all the accessory things to the EU thanks to concordats with Italy without actually joining the EU, San Marino does not care about joining.
Also reminder that San Marino is literally 33,000 people.

By the way, could you tell me what is the problem with North Macedonia? I am not informed much, but it does not sound to me as a nation with too many internal problems.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well the one "most likely", relatively speaking, is what amounts to Europe's very own narco state, ruled by the same "pro-european" "social-democratic" Prime Minister/President/Prime Minister/President/Drug Lord in Chief in some capacity for the last three decades, so that should tell you about as much as you need to know about the state of West Balkan accession talks.

Whilst I knew which country you meant here, arguably its a pretty good fit for a few of the others too

[parochial boy]

Yeah, my first thought was that North Macedonia seems to be the only one of those countries that ever bothers to change its government - on which basis...

That said, probably off the cards as long as right-wing-authoritarian wannabees New "Democracy" are in charge in Greece Fake Macedonia.

[mgop]

montenegro and serbia not in next 10 years, albania and north mac even later, bosnia-herz and kosovo maybe never. so montenegro and serbia are the closest but we hear 20 years already "just 4-5 more years". now they are still at the begining of negotiation and during 8 years menaged to close only 2-3  chapter of 35, with so many corruption and no real opposition in either country to make things moving, process that countries that joined eu finished in 7-8 years, here is much longer.

[Storr]

From what I can know (which isn't all that much) about the Balkans, the three with the most realistic shot of joining the EU in the next 10-15 years are Montenegro, Albania (I know the thread is former Yugoslav countries, but Albania is a close neighbor), and Northern Macedonia (in order of closest to gaining membership). I wouldn't have included NM before the name change which resolved the dispute with the Greeks. Serbia can't join as long as Kosovo is an issue, while Bosnia and Herzegovina is way too much of a mess. There isn't even a single government of the country, for Pete's sake.  

[TDAS04]

Montenegro.  Was going to vote Albania, but they weren’t part of Yugoslavia.

Anyway, could Ukraine join within the next 20 years or so?  Or Moldova?

[CumbrianLefty]

Montenegro.  Was going to vote Albania, but they weren’t part of Yugoslavia.

Though of course Stalin (in)famously suggested to Tito that they should be.

[vitoNova]

Montenegro.

They were largely asleep during the the past 4 decades of Balkan conflicts.   

Cool flag, too. 

[PPT Spiral]

Montenegro.

They were largely asleep during the the past 4 decades of Balkan conflicts.   

Cool flag, too. 

Montenegrins are always largely asleep.

[CumbrianLefty]

Montenegro.

They were largely asleep during the the past 4 decades of Balkan conflicts.   

Cool flag, too. 

Most of them supported Milosovic originally, but had the sense to back out after a while.