TX Trafalgar Trump+6
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Author Topic: TX Trafalgar Trump+6  (Read 980 times)
SaneDemocrat
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« on: August 07, 2020, 10:55:07 AM »
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/tx-pres-0820/
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CellarDoor
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« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2020, 10:57:20 AM »
If we use the rule of adding 7-8 points to Biden's margin for Trafalgar polls, it looks good. 
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WD
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« Reply #2 on: August 07, 2020, 11:07:24 AM »
Tilt D.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #3 on: August 07, 2020, 11:17:43 AM »
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BobbieMac
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« Reply #4 on: August 07, 2020, 11:24:16 AM »
When Trafalgar has Biden+6 on UNS nationally...
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Buzz
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« Reply #5 on: August 07, 2020, 11:29:39 AM »
I’m sure they learned from 2018 and adjusted accordingly for TX
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: August 07, 2020, 11:35:19 AM »
If Castro would have dropped his Prez campaign and ran for the Senate, this would be a pickup opportunity for Ds
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #7 on: August 07, 2020, 11:36:03 AM »
It's Trafalgar World.  So the reality is that it's tied or Biden up by 1.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #8 on: August 07, 2020, 11:37:37 AM »
Quote from: Georgia Democrat in 2020 on August 07, 2020, 11:36:03 AM
It's Trafalgar World.  So the reality is that it's tied or Biden up by 1.

We are still getting RV numbers and Hegar is tracking 6 pts behind Cornyn. So, its Trump plus 6
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Person Man
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« Reply #9 on: August 07, 2020, 11:56:20 AM »
Trafalgar is Trumps best case at this point. It basically has him winning by only holding Wisconsin.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #10 on: August 07, 2020, 11:57:48 AM »
They had Cruz +9 in 2018.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #11 on: August 07, 2020, 02:59:10 PM »
In defense of this poll Hegar is tracking where Biden is tracking R+6, so Biden is losing by 6 pts
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #12 on: August 07, 2020, 03:00:56 PM »

Cruz won by 2.6, so going off their record Biden wins by 0.4.
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S019
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« Reply #13 on: August 07, 2020, 03:19:49 PM »
Trafalgar is basically a ridiculously GOP biased firm, so if they only have Trump+6 in a state he won by 9 last time, he's probably losing TX
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #14 on: August 07, 2020, 04:56:55 PM »
Quote from: Speaker of the Lincoln Council S019 on August 07, 2020, 03:19:49 PM
Trafalgar is basically a ridiculously GOP biased firm, so if they only have Trump+6 in a state he won by 9 last time, he's probably losing TX

I suppose all the other polls showing Hegar losing by 6 pts to Cornyn are hack polls as well.

You said yourself the Senate race is gonna track with Prez race and even in Fox polls Hegar is losing by 6 pts
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Hammy
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« Reply #15 on: August 07, 2020, 08:06:13 PM »
Quote from: CellarDoor on August 07, 2020, 10:57:20 AM
If we use the rule of adding 7-8 points to Biden's margin for Trafalgar polls, it looks good. 

Trafalgar's methodology works very well in certain states, with a consistent 1-2 point error. But Texas is not one of those states and they had a 7-point Republican error here in 2018.
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SaneDemocrat
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« Reply #16 on: August 07, 2020, 09:01:36 PM »
Quote from: Hammy on August 07, 2020, 08:06:13 PM
Quote from: CellarDoor on August 07, 2020, 10:57:20 AM
If we use the rule of adding 7-8 points to Biden's margin for Trafalgar polls, it looks good. 

Trafalgar's methodology works very well in certain states, with a consistent 1-2 point error. But Texas is not one of those states and they had a 7-point Republican error here in 2018.
I know why to
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #17 on: August 07, 2020, 09:39:30 PM »
Castro wasted a golden opportunity to win this state for Ds
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #18 on: August 07, 2020, 10:19:00 PM »
My guess on the methodology of this pollster: it assumes basically an electorate like that of 2016.
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Hammy
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« Reply #19 on: August 07, 2020, 10:29:11 PM »
Quote from: pbrower2a on August 07, 2020, 10:19:00 PM
My guess on the methodology of this pollster: it assumes basically an electorate like that of 2016.

There's apparently some psychology involved in asking who people think their neighbor will vote for. They were pretty spot on (a point or two off) in MI/PA/FL/WI (places R's tend to be under-polled for whatever reason) in both 2016 and 2018. Not so great elsewhere and by far some of their worst performance was in NV/AZ/TX/GA where Dems have been under-polled recently--they did so to an even larger extent.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #20 on: August 08, 2020, 02:01:21 AM »
Quote from: pbrower2a on August 07, 2020, 10:19:00 PM
My guess on the methodology of this pollster: it assumes basically an electorate like that of 2016.

Its gonna be difficult for Biden to carry TX with Hegar on ballot, but not Castro. In this environment,  Hegar is considered a Betoesque type candidate,  but Ds should pick up Congressional districts
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