KS-PPP: Marshall+1

[MT Treasurer]

This would be close to a lost cause with Kobach. Marshall obviously makes it a way tougher race for the Democrats, but I agree that his chances are overrated (not necessarily because he’s some "weak candidate" or whatever, but rather because people are seriously underestimating Bollier's own strengths as a campaigner, the state's Democratic trend, the willingness of many Trump voters/registered Republicans to split their ticket, and the impact of the national environment on this race).

I certainly don’t buy that this race is Safe R but that IA is Tilt D or whatever. It’s going to be close, although I’d also pick Marshall to win if the election were held today even if I’m admittedly getting ND-SEN 2012 vibes from this race.

[MT Treasurer]

Will probably be 56-43-1 Marshall in the end ...

Seems about right. Considering that Roger Marshall is a relatively moderate Republican in comparison to Kris Kobach, he is heavily favored to win and may even get 60 percent of the vote.

Marshall would be lucky to win by single digits, there’s absolutely no way he gets 60% of the vote. He might be perceived as more moderate than Kobach (most Republicans would be), but is he really viewed as more moderate than Bollier? I don’t think so.