KS-PPP: Marshall+1

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a RV poll by the way, not LV

[Ye We Can]

Sure, Bollier will probably get 42 percent.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

BUT MUH SAFE R RACE

MUH MARSHALL STRONG CANIDATE

MUH KANSAS WONT ELECT A D IN A FEDERAL RACE

MUH KANSAS HASNT ELECTED A DEM SENATOR SINCE THE 30s

Only so much characters in a signature and they seem to fill up a day

[MATTROSE94]

Will probably be 56-43-1 Marshall in the end ...

Seems about right. Considering that Roger Marshall is a relatively moderate Republican in comparison to Kris Kobach, he is heavily favored to win and may even get 60 percent of the vote.

[here2view]

How much of an impact will third party voters have? There's a Libertarian and an Independent on the ballot. Both the 2014 Senate and Governor elections had over 4% third party voters, and the 2018 Governor election had 9%.

I think Bollier's best case scenario would be something like:
Bollier — 48%
Marshall — 47%
Libertarian — 4%
Independent — 1%

I can see her reaching 45 but those extra 2 or 3 points are more difficult.

[Adam Griffin]

Bollier can probably win something like one-third of the undecideds in this poll when everything is said and done. Winning KS-SEN with a candidate like Marshall would be a lot easier if these soft/lean Rs thought Trump was a lock for re-election; these types obviously want a counter to him. If they expect Biden to win, however, I don't see this being better than a 6-8 point loss.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Purple Kansas
Purple Kansas
Purple Kansas

[ProgressiveModerate]

BUT MUH SAFE R RACE

MUH MARSHALL STRONG CANIDATE

MUH KANSAS WONT ELECT A D IN A FEDERAL RACE

MUH KANSAS HASNT ELECTED A DEM SENATOR SINCE THE 30s

Bredesen led in the polls around August, and Orman was also being competitive/leading in the polls all the way over to election day. Yet they both ended up losing by double digits. You're getting your hopes over a race where Bollier is going to lose somewhere between 15-20 points.

This is a totally different race than TN-Sen 2018.

[Woody]

BUT MUH SAFE R RACE

MUH MARSHALL STRONG CANIDATE

MUH KANSAS WONT ELECT A D IN A FEDERAL RACE

MUH KANSAS HASNT ELECTED A DEM SENATOR SINCE THE 30s

Bredesen led in the polls around August, and Orman was also being competitive/leading in the polls all the way over to election day. Yet they both ended up losing by double digits. You're getting your hopes over a race where Bollier is going to lose somewhere between 15-20 points.

This is a totally different race than TN-Sen 2018.

Explain Kansas 2014.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Safe R and I’m not convinced it’ll even be all that close (high-single digits is probably Bollier’s best case scenario).  Atlas memes aside, this is fool’s gold now and there’s no point wasting another cent on this race.  That money would be better spent on North Carolina, Maine, Montana, Iowa, and/or Georgia‘s Senate races.

[Brittain33]

Safe R and I’m not convinced it’ll even be all that close (high-single digits is probably Bollier’s best case scenario).  Atlas memes aside, this is fool’s gold now and there’s no point wasting another cent on this race.  That money would be better spent on North Carolina, Maine, Montana, Iowa, and/or Georgia‘s Senate races.

Safe to me means there is literally <1% chance of the other party winning, mainly because they didn’t field a candidate or fielded a Some Guy with no money and no supporters.

It’s unlikely Bollier wins, but she’s a decent candidate with a huge amount of money who is tying in polls, so it’s best to call this Likely R because it’s conceivable that a scandal or a big shift in the national vote even further away from Trump could let her eke out a win. But it’s not likely, so Likely R.

[Hope For A New Era]

Undecideds mostly went for Kelly in 2018, which is why she overperformed polls. We'll see if it can happen again.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Safe R and I’m not convinced it’ll even be all that close (high-single digits is probably Bollier’s best case scenario).  Atlas memes aside, this is fool’s gold now and there’s no point wasting another cent on this race.  That money would be better spent on North Carolina, Maine, Montana, Iowa, and/or Georgia‘s Senate races.

Safe to means there is literally <1% chance of the other party winning, mainly because they didn’t field a candidate or fielded a Some Guy with no money and no supporters.

It’s unlikely Bollier wins, but she’s a decent candidate with a huge amount of money who is tying in polls, so it’s best to call this Likely R because it’s conceivable that a scandal or a big shift in the national vote even further away from Trump could let her eke out a win. But it’s not likely, so Likely R.

For me, anything with a 15% chance of flipping or less is Safe, 15-30% is Likely, 30-45% is Lean, 45-50% is Tilt, etc.

[Brittain33]

Safe R and I’m not convinced it’ll even be all that close (high-single digits is probably Bollier’s best case scenario).  Atlas memes aside, this is fool’s gold now and there’s no point wasting another cent on this race.  That money would be better spent on North Carolina, Maine, Montana, Iowa, and/or Georgia‘s Senate races.

Safe to means there is literally <1% chance of the other party winning, mainly because they didn’t field a candidate or fielded a Some Guy with no money and no supporters.

It’s unlikely Bollier wins, but she’s a decent candidate with a huge amount of money who is tying in polls, so it’s best to call this Likely R because it’s conceivable that a scandal or a big shift in the national vote even further away from Trump could let her eke out a win. But it’s not likely, so Likely R.

For me, anything with a 15% chance of flipping or less is Safe, 15-30% is Likely, 30-45% is Lean, 45-50% is Tilt, etc.

I see value in distinguishing races like this, where Bollier is within 1 point on a poll, from AR-SEN, WY-SEN, MA-SEN (after the primary) where there is literally no path for the out party to win this year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bollier will win

[jamestroll]

Let a toss up race be a toss up.

Boiler certainly has a MUCH better shot than McCaskill did.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

KS can definitely screw up the Rs chances in the Senate. If they hold everything except for AZ, CO, ME and NC. KS will give Ds 51 seats

[MT Treasurer]

Will probably be 56-43-1 Marshall in the end ...

Seems about right. Considering that Roger Marshall is a relatively moderate Republican in comparison to Kris Kobach, he is heavily favored to win and may even get 60 percent of the vote.

Marshall would be lucky to win by single digits, there’s absolutely no way he gets 60% of the vote. He might be perceived as more moderate than Kobach (most Republicans would be), but is he really viewed as more moderate than Bollier? I don’t think so.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Safe R and I’m not convinced it’ll even be all that close (high-single digits is probably Bollier’s best case scenario).  Atlas memes aside, this is fool’s gold now and there’s no point wasting another cent on this race.  That money would be better spent on North Carolina, Maine, Montana, Iowa, and/or Georgia‘s Senate races.

Safe to means there is literally <1% chance of the other party winning, mainly because they didn’t field a candidate or fielded a Some Guy with no money and no supporters.

It’s unlikely Bollier wins, but she’s a decent candidate with a huge amount of money who is tying in polls, so it’s best to call this Likely R because it’s conceivable that a scandal or a big shift in the national vote even further away from Trump could let her eke out a win. But it’s not likely, so Likely R.

For me, anything with a 15% chance of flipping or less is Safe, 15-30% is Likely, 30-45% is Lean, 45-50% is Tilt, etc.

I see value in distinguishing races like this, where Bollier is within 1 point on a poll, from AR-SEN, WY-SEN, MA-SEN (after the primary) where there is literally no path for the out party to win this year.

The latter type are titanium-grade safe

[Harvey Updyke Jr🌹]

New Poll: Kansas Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2020-08-06

Summary: D: 42%, R: 43%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details