"Lay of the Land" Political Analysis Megathread

[Tiger08]

I have always had a deep interest in what different places are like politically. Thought this would be a good thread for this section. If you want to describe the political habits, nuances, and other descriptions, of cities, states, metro areas, etc. you live(d) in or are otherwise very familiar with.

I'll start....

Greenville County, SC (fellow SC natives, correct me if I'm wrong).

Northern part of the county- typical rural white Southern 80+ R area. Trump and Cruz did well here. Very conservative and fundamentalist (by Evangelical standards. Evangelical and fundamentalist are not seen as synonyms within theologically astute parts of the Evangelical community, for lack of a better word. Fundamentalists are the Bob Jones crowd)

Greer, Taylors, US-29 corridor- working to middle class whites, very evangelical. Cruz territory in 2016. About 2/3 R in the general.

Eastern Greenville County and Five Forks- typical Southern suburbia. Upper middle class, well educated, but more conservative and probably more religious than most places that fit that description. Quite a few transplants. Rubio territory. About 60-65% GOP, not as red as it used to be. Was closer to 70-75 R for Romney

Downtown Greenville: Millennials. 65%ish blue. Expensive.

South of Greenville heading towards I-85. Southern old money, 60%ish R, Rubio. A couple predominantly Black pockets.

From I-85 to I-185. Predominantly African American and Democratic

Just north of Downtown Greenville: young, well-off, and trending blue. Turns into more conservative suburbs as you hit Paris Mountain/Travelers Rest though

Western Greenville County- Gentrifying formerly AA areas close to city, solidly blue. Further out, formerly very WCW, now a somewhat large Hispanic population. About 50-50.

Mauldin and Simpsonville proper. Middle class, Trumpy Republicans. Some areas have decent sized Black populations though. 55-60% R

Southern Greenville County- rural and very Trumpy

[SeaTurtleGrrl]

Lay of the land for San Francisco, California.

Despite being one of the most left cities in the country, there is actually a lot of nuance, although everyone serving on the SF Board of Supervisors (our city council) is to the left of Democrat, there are various nuances, the major fault lines being budget, land use, housing, and public safety (Progressives support budget equity, development without displacement, and less focus on police, moderates tend to believe in fiscal restraint, building housing regardless of affordability, pro-business, and more policing). I will do this by Supervisorial District.

District 1 (Richmond area): Tends to be largely renters, mostly Asian/White mix. It's kind of like the Pennsylvania of SF, it has always elected progressive supervisors (McGoldrick, Mar, Fewer) since district elections came back, but could slip to the moderates if not careful. Seat is up for election this year, and it's a battle royale between Connie Chan (progressive) and Marjan Philhour (moderate), plus minor candidates Although the district is largely older and has a somewhat conservative Eastern European and Chinese community, there is a lot of antipathy towards big developers, and progressives generally must have a Chinese person to win.

District 2 (Great White North, Sea Cliff, Pacific Heights, Marina, Cow Hollow, some parts of the Western Addition, and Russian Hill). This is a gerrymander for rich white folks, Dianne Feinstein and Nancy Pelosi (who are considered conservative by SF standards) live here, and in 2000, now governor Gavin Newsom won this seat, and when he became mayor, it went to Michaela Alioto-Pier, and then Mark Farrel, and now Catherine Stefani. All of these people have been the core moderates on the BoS, with Farrell being a venture capitalist and Stefani being a former prosecutor in suburban Contra Costa who hates guns and is often the sole vote against decarceration on the Board of Supervisors, and one of two who have gotten the once powerful Police Officer's Association endorsement the district is up in midterm years (as are all even districts), and Stefani will likely win another term in 2022, however, the district is mostly renter, and in 2026, there could be a victory.

District 3: NE neighborhoods, Chinatown, parts of Financial District, North Beach, Russian Hill, Fisherman's Wharf, Nob Hill) This is the most "Manhattan part of the district", and has elected mostly swing progressives, starting with Aaron Peskin in 2000, then after her termed out in 2008, current Assemblymember David Chiu won as a progressive, but drifted to the right and has been ever since, riding all the way to representing eastern SF in the Cali legislature as a modsquadder. After his election to Assembly, then mayor Ed Lee appointed core conservative and AirBNB lackey Julie Christensen, who then lost to...Aaron Peskin, who ran again, won, and has been serving ever since.

In terms of the district, Chinatown is progressive on land use and housing, but also very anti-cannabis and relatively pro-cop, and likes to focus on itself in terms of budget. The rest of the district is mostly renter, ranging from SRO hotels to luxury high-rises. As for Peskin, he tends to be relatively progressive on land use and housing, but restrained on the budget, he is up for re-election, and faces likely token competition from the right.

District 4 (Sunset Parkside): This is mostly homeowner, mostly Asian District on the Westside, with some diversity in housing near the ocean, and tends to be relatively conservative, however, there is a significant labor presence (think: teachers, nurses). Usually, the areas closer to the ocean and Golden Gate Park vote progressive, and the rest moderate, and the supervisors from this district since 2000 have been a flurry of Chinese moderates (convict Leland Yee, now treasurer Fiona Ma, now convict Ed Jew, now Assessor Carmen Chu, Katy Tang)....until 2018, when progressive labor leader Gordon Mar (and brother of former D1 Supe Eric Mar) won on bread and butter economic issues, and is now one of the core progressives on the Board of Supervisors. He will be up in 2022, and that race could be a real barn burner.

District 5 (Western Addition, NoPA, Inner Sunset, Haight-Ashbury): This district is a mixture of Japantown (relatively conservative and Japanese) Fillmore (which used to be largely black until gentrification happened and still has a black community), and a hell of a lot of white progressives. The district is like the Williamsburg/Astoria of SF, a lot of renters and tends to elect very progressive people. First came Green Partier Matt Gonzalez, who served one term (and Smash the State was painted in his office when he left), then Green Partier and future one term sheriff Ross Mirkarimi, and when he was elected sheriff, was replaced by Ed Lee with Christina Olague, a progressive with moderate hues who was defeated by now mayor London Breed, a swing moderate who became more conservative after her re-election and when running for mayor and has remained moderate ever since. She appointed Vallie Brown, her aide, to the seat, where she was defeated by Democratic Socialist Dean Preston. She is seeking a rematch, but Preston will likely crush her.

District 6: (Tenderloin, Civic Center, South of Market, Mission Bay, Treasure Island). This is one of the most racially diverse districts and is almost all renters (with significant SROs and supportive housing, along with rent controlled stock), with Tenderloin generally being progressive and relatively poor/working class/very diverse with relatively large black and transgender population, SOMA also being progressive and Filipino and having large LGBTQ community (Folsom Street Fair), Treasure Island being poorer and voting ultimately progressive, and the Eastern part of the district being whiter, wealthier, an epicenter of new development, and more moderate.

And it has always elected progressives since district elections came back in 2000, with Chris Daly, a white man famous for his foul mouth and bad attitude, who was a core progressive (although slumlord and poverty pimp Randy Shaw has had some influence over him and his successor Jane Kim). Kim, the first Korean elected in SF was also progressive, but she could betray the core progressives at times, and, especially during her second term, was often absent on the microissues facing the Tenderloin as she ran unsuccessfully for state Senate and mayor.

The 2018 election was between polarizing racist market rate housing advocate Sonja Trauss, former planning commissioner, AirBNB lackey, and black moderate Christine Johnson, and school board member and white progressive Tenderloin resident Matt Haney. Though Trauss and Johnson formed a ranked choice strategy and were endorsed by the mayor, and despite Johnson being black, Haney won every precinct, with people of color overwhelmingly choosing the white man, and wealthy white condo owners preferring the black woman. Haney has since become one of the core progressives on the Board of Supervisors.

District 7 (West of Twin Peaks, Southwest Corner of City). This has historically been one of the core moderate parts of the city, with overwhelmingly white homeowners, with some Asian homeowners, college students from SFSU, and significant numbers of renters in Parkmerced for good measure, though more Latinx and Chinese are moving in and pushing the district leftward.

In 2000, it was represented by Republican Tony Hall who would do counterintuitive things sometimes to screw Newsom, then came now mayor's chief of staff Sean Elsbernd, who is a moderate footsoldier, then came tepidly progressive former school board member and childcare advocate Norman Yee, whose recent election as board president split the newly elected progressive supermajority. Yee is relatively progressive on labor and land use, but can be more moderate on public safety.

Yee will term out this year, and the race is multifaceted. We have an Asian American male public defender Vilaska Nguyen representing the few core progressives in the district, relatively progressive former Planning Commissioner Myrna Melgar (Latina), who has gotten a lot of support from Asian and Latino voices, as well as the SF Democratic Party and many politically diverse individuals (and who is the most viable progressive in the race). newspaper columnist and moderate footsoldier Joel Engardio (white gay man), who has ties to pro-police group Stop Crime SF, Emily Murase, a conservative former school board member and director of the Department on the Status of Women (Japanese woman), and who has views on domestic violence services that don't center survivors,  former youth commissioner Ben Matranga, who appears to be a moderate footsoldier, and Stephen-Martin Pinto, a Latino Republican Trumpy Bear.

District 8 (Castro, western Mission, Upper Market, Noe Valley, Twin Peaks): This is one of the most whitest districts in the city, mostly renters, but it ranges from progressive in the east to more moderate in the western hilly areas. In 2000, Mark Leno, a moderate who would become a slightly more progressive state legislator and failed progressive mayoral candidate, won, and when elected to state legislature, he was replaced by Bevan Dufty, who was a crucial swing vote and is now a relatively progressive BART board director. Then came the bane of all progressives, Scott Wiener, who despite the rather cheeky name, was the author of the anti-nudity ordinance, and when Farrell and Tang served with him, formed Team WTF, who would push anti-homelessness laws and for market rate development, and was booed off the stage at the Trans March in 2016 during his successful State Senate campaign against Jane Kim.  When he went to Sacramento, Ed Lee replaced him with AIDS advocate and moderate footsoldier Jeff Sheehy, who tended to throw chairs in the 90s when he was part of the progressive Harvey Milk Democratic Club. Milk Club would then help propel relatively progressive Rafael Mandelman to victory...who then cozied up to the mayor, and while is still progressive on land use and housing issues, he is pro-cop and led a controversial conservatorship reform.

Fun fact, all the supervisors since 2000 have been white gay men, and all except for Sheehy, have been Jewish.

District 9 (Mission, Bernal Heights, Portola): This is the San Francisco of San Francisco, the most progressive district in the most progressive city. It contains Latinx/progressive/working class POC Mission, ultraprogressive  Latinx/white Bernal Heights (which has been a lesbian epicenter), and the more conservative Asian Portola. The district is ground zero for gentrification, but has always elected core progressive supervisors, future Assemblymember and gay Harvey Milk associate Tom Ammiano, gay Latino immigrant David Campos, who now chairs the Democratic Party, and now, straight Jewish woman and former Campos aide Hillary Ronen, who mounted an unsuccessful bid for board president against Norman Yee, and has claimed to be a Democratic Socialist. She is considered the leader of the core progressive contingent and is running for re-election unopposed.

District 10 (Potrero Hill, Dogpatch, Bayview, Hunters Point, Visitation Valley): This is a swing district and kind of the Yugoslavia of San Francisco, consisting of up and coming Dogpatch, white Potrero Hill, black/Latinx/Samoan Bayview/Hunters Point, and diverse Visitation Valley/Sunnydale projects. First came Sophie Maxwell, a tepidly progressive black woman, then now-Board of Equalization member Malia Cohen, a swing moderate who does buck her faction on police reform issues, and now former school board member (and black man) Shamann Walton, who got many diverse endorsements and who has endorsed moderates but as insiders predicted, he became one of the core progressives, and a close ally of Ronen, Haney, Mar, and Preston. He led the effort to close juvenile Hall AND replace it with non-carceral alternatives, was the sole opposition on the controversial conservatorship legislation, and has led the calls against curfew after the George Floyd Riots. He had always presented progressivism in a very Afro-centric way and has ruffled the feathers of London Breed, the moderate black woman mayor.

District 11 (Excelsior, Crocker Amazon, Oceanview, Ingleside). This is a district that has a lot of working class POC (especially Latinx and Filipino) and leans progressive (progressivism rises in the east). It was represented by 2  progressive Latinos since 2000, Gerardo Sandoval and John Avalos, the latter more progressive and running again this year...until 2016, when progressive queer Latina was beaten by white passing Iranian straight moderate Ahsha Safa'i, thanks to splits in progressivism. This is going to be another horserace to follow this year.

I

[It’s so Joever]

I like this idea!
Today I will just do my county (Arapahoe) which I know enough about personally, but I will expand to other parts of the metro area later.
West of the Cherry Creek Reservoir (the closest thing we have to a proper beach here)

Area 1: (Littleton/West part of Centennial)
Pretty white-bread, middle class area. It is well known for a very safe and mundane high school and honestly is more JeffCo than Arapahoe.
87.8% White
11.1% Hispanic
47.3-43.5 Clinton
R+2.07
49.5-49.0 McCain (wish I could see 2012 lol)

Area 2: (Englewood & Sheridan)
Definitely politically closer to Denver than the neighboring areas. This area is lower income and higher crime than the surrounding mid/upper class suburban sprawl. The Karens nearby want to build a wall.
74.6% White
19.1% Hispanic
56.9-32.0-11.0 Clinton
D+12.51
63.1-34.4 Obama

Area 3: (Greenwood & Cherry Hills)
The rich part of town. All the mansions and seven figure salaries can be found here. It does include some “slightly less rich” parts of Centennial. The neighborhoods here have the demography of a saltine.
84.8% White
48.6-43.7 Clinton
R+4.09
51.8-47.1% McCain

Area 4: (Anywhere else west of the reservoir)
Just a wannabe Area 3. People live here because it’s somewhat cheaper and they get the best schools. Has an airport and some of the DTC corridor.
71.3% White
13.9% Asian
10.7% Hispanic
53.5-38.4 Clinton
D+2.99
54.8-44.1 Obama

Auroraland (Where most of the county now lives)

Area 5: ( Foxfield and the Inferior Reservoir)
More exurban and more conservative than the rest of Auroraland. Mainly insecure Chuck Norris copycats who want to live a “rural” lifestyle but are too scared to be out of a 10 Mile radius of all the comforts of city life. Also shopping mall central.
White: 74.8%
50.5-42.1 Trump
R+8.49
56.2-42.9 McCain

Area 6: (Piney Creek and far-South Aurora)
This area is a classic D-leaning suburb. It’s the wealthier part of Aurora proper. Annually, 398 people die from sheer boredom here.
71.9% White
10.5% Hispanic
49.9-40.8 Clinton
D+2.31
53.8-44.9 Obama

Area 7: (South Central Aurora)
Basically a slightly more liberal version of Area 6. This place is called Saudi Aurora (because back in the 1980’s, the barrenness of the fields here was comparable to the Saudi deserts) Karens don’t dare wander north of here.
White 65.5%
Black 13.2%
Hispanic 13.1%
54.0-37.3 Clinton
D+7.56
58.1-40.1 Obama

Area 8: (South Central Aurora)
This is the a liberal area and a transition zone in many ways.
A healthy mix of minorities, subsidized homes, and old people thrive in this ecosystem.
White: 52.0%
Black: 24.3%
Hispanic: 16.1%
64.7-27.4 Clinton
D+18.57
67.6-30.8 Obama

Area 9: (Central Aurora)
The most diverse part of our county. This area also has some of the higher crime rates and is considered a bit “ghetto” (if that makes sense) It’s more of an extension of Denver than anything.
Hispanic: 44.3%
White: 26.1%
Black: 21.9%
66.8-25.5 Clinton
D+21.87
69.2-28.9 Obama

Area 10: (Aurora outskirts and the Buckley base)
These are the Aurora exurbs and the Buckley Air Force Base. Not many people actually live here, this is basically a transition area between Aurora and nothing. Presumably has the highest rate of sleep deprivation and deafness.
White: 60.1%
Hispanic: 16.7%
Black: 14.7%
48.1-43.8 Clinton
D+1.34
54.7-44.0 Obama

Literally Everything else.

Area 11: (Everything East)
Extremely rural. This votes like rural Kansas.
People don’t actually live here. It’s a hoax meant to make Arapahoe County look bigger.
White: 82.1%
Hispanic: 12.2%
75.2-18.0 Trump
R+28.39
67.9-30.1 Obama

[Mike Thick]

Aight. Here goes.

Ventura County:



1. The Mountains/Los Padres/Sespe Wilderness: The rural areas in the North, which are about half of the county's land area. Very, very few people live here. Swung wildly from Obama to Romney to Clinton, but I have no idea why.



2. La Conchita & Other Random Beach Towns: This is basically just a southward extension of the little, wealthy beach enclaves in Santa Barbara County. Older posters might remember La Conchita for a deadly 2005 landslide, which took 10 lives. My experience here (and those of most in VTA/SB counties) is limited to driving through on PCH, and a beach off the highway where teenagers go to do illicit stuff at night. Very few people live here, but the few that do are solidly Dem.

3. Ojai Valley: The only inhabited place in the county with genuine forestry, this is an eclectic area. Ojai is probably best-known around the country as a celebrity hideaway, which is very true -- day trippers from other parts of the county frequently see Jason Segel, from How I Met Your Mother, at local coffee spots. However, most people here are relatively middle-class for the area. This is the whitest area of the county, but politics range from Dem-leaning in Casitas Springs to titanium Dem in the city of Ojai. Not very populous relative to other areas of VC.

4. Ventura: This is the county seat -- a fairly affluent beach town, with working and middle-class Latino areas on the East and West Sides of the city. The richest areas are the larger developments along the foothills, and densely packed beach houses in the Pierpont neighborhood. There was a big wildfire here in 2017, which burned hundreds of houses and forced me to live in the lobby of an office building for a week.

Locally, the city is divided over typical muni government stuff like development/ pensions/utilities. However, the city is solidly Democratic -- the last Republican to carry the city, for some reason, was Bob Dole.

6. Oxnard & Port Hueneme: Yeah, we skipped 5 because I ordered these wrong in DRA. We'll get to it later.

Oxnard is the largest city in the county, at roughly 210,000 people. Overwhelmingly Latino, this is the "anchor" of both Ventura County's nonwhite population and its Democratic voters. White people are afraid to go here, but although it has the worst gang activity of anywhere in the county, it's really not that bad -- there's really a mix of middle-class and poorer neighborhoods, both heavily Latino. The Point Mugu Naval Base, a major employer here, is down there in the Southern part of the area -- heavily Republican, but not heavily populated.

Port Hueneme is a lot smaller. It's white, and affluent -- and home to some of the only populated areas in VC that went for Bloomberg in the Democratic primary.



7. Simi Valley: This is where they moved the Rodney King trial so the cops would get off. Lot of retired and current LAPD officers live here. Simi is the home of the Reagan Library, and was in the news recently for some BLM stuff. Interestingly, it's only ~60% white -- roughly the same as the city of Ventura. It's also the only part of VC in a competitive district, CA-25, and went hard for Garcia in the special. Trends are going the right way here, but it was still the only populated area of Ventura County to go for Trump.

8. Moorpark: The unwanted love child of Thousand Oaks and Simi. Backwards it spells "Kraproom." Pretty much the same story as the other East County suburbs: affluent, white-ish, and Romney-Clinton.

9. Camarillo: This place is kind of interesting: Cam is West of the Conejo Grade, a highway incline over a mountain range that separates liberal "East County" towns from conservative-before-Trump "West County" suburbs. However, culturally, it's like someone scooped up a chunk of Thousand Oaks and plopped it in a field. White-ish and Romney-Clinton, and wealthier than Ventura but not as wealthy as the proper East County areas.

10. Thousand Oaks: This is the second-most-populous area of VC, after Oxnard: roughly 180,000 people between TO and Oak Park. It is an extremely wealthy LA exurb, and had the hardest Romney-Clinton swing anywhere in the County, going from roughly 52-46 Romney to 53-42 Clinton. You might have read about it recently because of the antics of a Pastor-cum-politician who resigned from the TO City Council in protest of shutdown mandates, and is currently holding church services in defiance of a County-issued restraining order.

CA-26 Congresswoman Julia Brownley lives in Westlake Village, just across the LA County Line from TO.



5. Santa Clara River Valley: Finally! The cities here get smaller as you go west, with Santa Paula clocking in at about 30,000; Fillmore at 16,000; and Piru at 2,000. This is culturally more similar to the Central Valley than the rest of Ventura County -- heavily Latino and agricultural. Of course, the area is solidly Democratic.

The Saticoy area of Ventura, on the far East end of town, is arguably culturally a part of this area.

[Idaho Conservative]

Lay of the land for San Francisco, California.

Despite being one of the most left cities in the country, there is actually a lot of nuance, although everyone serving on the SF Board of Supervisors (our city council) is to the left of Democrat, there are various nuances, the major fault lines being budget, land use, housing, and public safety (Progressives support budget equity, development without displacement, and less focus on police, moderates tend to believe in fiscal restraint, building housing regardless of affordability, pro-business, and more policing). I will do this by Supervisorial District.

District 1 (Richmond area): Tends to be largely renters, mostly Asian/White mix. It's kind of like the Pennsylvania of SF, it has always elected progressive supervisors (McGoldrick, Mar, Fewer) since district elections came back, but could slip to the moderates if not careful. Seat is up for election this year, and it's a battle royale between Connie Chan (progressive) and Marjan Philhour (moderate), plus minor candidates Although the district is largely older and has a somewhat conservative Eastern European and Chinese community, there is a lot of antipathy towards big developers, and progressives generally must have a Chinese person to win.

District 2 (Great White North, Sea Cliff, Pacific Heights, Marina, Cow Hollow, some parts of the Western Addition, and Russian Hill). This is a gerrymander for rich white folks, Dianne Feinstein and Nancy Pelosi (who are considered conservative by SF standards) live here, and in 2000, now governor Gavin Newsom won this seat, and when he became mayor, it went to Michaela Alioto-Pier, and then Mark Farrel, and now Catherine Stefani. All of these people have been the core moderates on the BoS, with Farrell being a venture capitalist and Stefani being a former prosecutor in suburban Contra Costa who hates guns and is often the sole vote against decarceration on the Board of Supervisors, and one of two who have gotten the once powerful Police Officer's Association endorsement the district is up in midterm years (as are all even districts), and Stefani will likely win another term in 2022, however, the district is mostly renter, and in 2026, there could be a victory.

District 3: NE neighborhoods, Chinatown, parts of Financial District, North Beach, Russian Hill, Fisherman's Wharf, Nob Hill) This is the most "Manhattan part of the district", and has elected mostly swing progressives, starting with Aaron Peskin in 2000, then after her termed out in 2008, current Assemblymember David Chiu won as a progressive, but drifted to the right and has been ever since, riding all the way to representing eastern SF in the Cali legislature as a modsquadder. After his election to Assembly, then mayor Ed Lee appointed core conservative and AirBNB lackey Julie Christensen, who then lost to...Aaron Peskin, who ran again, won, and has been serving ever since.

In terms of the district, Chinatown is progressive on land use and housing, but also very anti-cannabis and relatively pro-cop, and likes to focus on itself in terms of budget. The rest of the district is mostly renter, ranging from SRO hotels to luxury high-rises. As for Peskin, he tends to be relatively progressive on land use and housing, but restrained on the budget, he is up for re-election, and faces likely token competition from the right.

District 4 (Sunset Parkside): This is mostly homeowner, mostly Asian District on the Westside, with some diversity in housing near the ocean, and tends to be relatively conservative, however, there is a significant labor presence (think: teachers, nurses). Usually, the areas closer to the ocean and Golden Gate Park vote progressive, and the rest moderate, and the supervisors from this district since 2000 have been a flurry of Chinese moderates (convict Leland Yee, now treasurer Fiona Ma, now convict Ed Jew, now Assessor Carmen Chu, Katy Tang)....until 2018, when progressive labor leader Gordon Mar (and brother of former D1 Supe Eric Mar) won on bread and butter economic issues, and is now one of the core progressives on the Board of Supervisors. He will be up in 2022, and that race could be a real barn burner.

District 5 (Western Addition, NoPA, Inner Sunset, Haight-Ashbury): This district is a mixture of Japantown (relatively conservative and Japanese) Fillmore (which used to be largely black until gentrification happened and still has a black community), and a hell of a lot of white progressives. The district is like the Williamsburg/Astoria of SF, a lot of renters and tends to elect very progressive people. First came Green Partier Matt Gonzalez, who served one term (and Smash the State was painted in his office when he left), then Green Partier and future one term sheriff Ross Mirkarimi, and when he was elected sheriff, was replaced by Ed Lee with Christina Olague, a progressive with moderate hues who was defeated by now mayor London Breed, a swing moderate who became more conservative after her re-election and when running for mayor and has remained moderate ever since. She appointed Vallie Brown, her aide, to the seat, where she was defeated by Democratic Socialist Dean Preston. She is seeking a rematch, but Preston will likely crush her.

District 6: (Tenderloin, Civic Center, South of Market, Mission Bay, Treasure Island). This is one of the most racially diverse districts and is almost all renters (with significant SROs and supportive housing, along with rent controlled stock), with Tenderloin generally being progressive and relatively poor/working class/very diverse with relatively large black and transgender population, SOMA also being progressive and Filipino and having large LGBTQ community (Folsom Street Fair), Treasure Island being poorer and voting ultimately progressive, and the Eastern part of the district being whiter, wealthier, an epicenter of new development, and more moderate.

And it has always elected progressives since district elections came back in 2000, with Chris Daly, a white man famous for his foul mouth and bad attitude, who was a core progressive (although slumlord and poverty pimp Randy Shaw has had some influence over him and his successor Jane Kim). Kim, the first Korean elected in SF was also progressive, but she could betray the core progressives at times, and, especially during her second term, was often absent on the microissues facing the Tenderloin as she ran unsuccessfully for state Senate and mayor.

The 2018 election was between polarizing racist market rate housing advocate Sonja Trauss, former planning commissioner, AirBNB lackey, and black moderate Christine Johnson, and school board member and white progressive Tenderloin resident Matt Haney. Though Trauss and Johnson formed a ranked choice strategy and were endorsed by the mayor, and despite Johnson being black, Haney won every precinct, with people of color overwhelmingly choosing the white man, and wealthy white condo owners preferring the black woman. Haney has since become one of the core progressives on the Board of Supervisors.

District 7 (West of Twin Peaks, Southwest Corner of City). This has historically been one of the core moderate parts of the city, with overwhelmingly white homeowners, with some Asian homeowners, college students from SFSU, and significant numbers of renters in Parkmerced for good measure, though more Latinx and Chinese are moving in and pushing the district leftward.

In 2000, it was represented by Republican Tony Hall who would do counterintuitive things sometimes to screw Newsom, then came now mayor's chief of staff Sean Elsbernd, who is a moderate footsoldier, then came tepidly progressive former school board member and childcare advocate Norman Yee, whose recent election as board president split the newly elected progressive supermajority. Yee is relatively progressive on labor and land use, but can be more moderate on public safety.

Yee will term out this year, and the race is multifaceted. We have an Asian American male public defender Vilaska Nguyen representing the few core progressives in the district, relatively progressive former Planning Commissioner Myrna Melgar (Latina), who has gotten a lot of support from Asian and Latino voices, as well as the SF Democratic Party and many politically diverse individuals (and who is the most viable progressive in the race). newspaper columnist and moderate footsoldier Joel Engardio (white gay man), who has ties to pro-police group Stop Crime SF, Emily Murase, a conservative former school board member and director of the Department on the Status of Women (Japanese woman), and who has views on domestic violence services that don't center survivors,  former youth commissioner Ben Matranga, who appears to be a moderate footsoldier, and Stephen-Martin Pinto, a Latino Republican Trumpy Bear.

District 8 (Castro, western Mission, Upper Market, Noe Valley, Twin Peaks): This is one of the most whitest districts in the city, mostly renters, but it ranges from progressive in the east to more moderate in the western hilly areas. In 2000, Mark Leno, a moderate who would become a slightly more progressive state legislator and failed progressive mayoral candidate, won, and when elected to state legislature, he was replaced by Bevan Dufty, who was a crucial swing vote and is now a relatively progressive BART board director. Then came the bane of all progressives, Scott Wiener, who despite the rather cheeky name, was the author of the anti-nudity ordinance, and when Farrell and Tang served with him, formed Team WTF, who would push anti-homelessness laws and for market rate development, and was booed off the stage at the Trans March in 2016 during his successful State Senate campaign against Jane Kim.  When he went to Sacramento, Ed Lee replaced him with AIDS advocate and moderate footsoldier Jeff Sheehy, who tended to throw chairs in the 90s when he was part of the progressive Harvey Milk Democratic Club. Milk Club would then help propel relatively progressive Rafael Mandelman to victory...who then cozied up to the mayor, and while is still progressive on land use and housing issues, he is pro-cop and led a controversial conservatorship reform.

Fun fact, all the supervisors since 2000 have been white gay men, and all except for Sheehy, have been Jewish.

District 9 (Mission, Bernal Heights, Portola): This is the San Francisco of San Francisco, the most progressive district in the most progressive city. It contains Latinx/progressive/working class POC Mission, ultraprogressive  Latinx/white Bernal Heights (which has been a lesbian epicenter), and the more conservative Asian Portola. The district is ground zero for gentrification, but has always elected core progressive supervisors, future Assemblymember and gay Harvey Milk associate Tom Ammiano, gay Latino immigrant David Campos, who now chairs the Democratic Party, and now, straight Jewish woman and former Campos aide Hillary Ronen, who mounted an unsuccessful bid for board president against Norman Yee, and has claimed to be a Democratic Socialist. She is considered the leader of the core progressive contingent and is running for re-election unopposed.

District 10 (Potrero Hill, Dogpatch, Bayview, Hunters Point, Visitation Valley): This is a swing district and kind of the Yugoslavia of San Francisco, consisting of up and coming Dogpatch, white Potrero Hill, black/Latinx/Samoan Bayview/Hunters Point, and diverse Visitation Valley/Sunnydale projects. First came Sophie Maxwell, a tepidly progressive black woman, then now-Board of Equalization member Malia Cohen, a swing moderate who does buck her faction on police reform issues, and now former school board member (and black man) Shamann Walton, who got many diverse endorsements and who has endorsed moderates but as insiders predicted, he became one of the core progressives, and a close ally of Ronen, Haney, Mar, and Preston. He led the effort to close juvenile Hall AND replace it with non-carceral alternatives, was the sole opposition on the controversial conservatorship legislation, and has led the calls against curfew after the George Floyd Riots. He had always presented progressivism in a very Afro-centric way and has ruffled the feathers of London Breed, the moderate black woman mayor.

District 11 (Excelsior, Crocker Amazon, Oceanview, Ingleside). This is a district that has a lot of working class POC (especially Latinx and Filipino) and leans progressive (progressivism rises in the east). It was represented by 2  progressive Latinos since 2000, Gerardo Sandoval and John Avalos, the latter more progressive and running again this year...until 2016, when progressive queer Latina was beaten by white passing Iranian straight moderate Ahsha Safa'i, thanks to splits in progressivism. This is going to be another horserace to follow this year.

I

Are there any remnants of the Irish, Italian, and maybe even German immigrant enclaves from the earlier part of the 20th century?

[Tiger08]

I'll try to cover any of the 200K+ population counties in SC that I am familiar with.

I'll start with a (somewhat nondescript) Upstate county: Anderson County, SC.

Anderson: normal small-to-mid-sized Southern town. Home of TL Hanna High School (the setting of the movie “Radio”) and a huge Evangelical megachurch (NewSpring). Almost 40% African American. About evenly split between Rs and Ds.

Powdersville- a fast growing Greenville exurb. Very large Evangelical population (like most of the Upstate). 75% R.

Rest of county- mostly typical rural South, with a few small towns and suburban-ish neighborhoods near the city of Anderson sprinkled in. 70-75% R.

I'll do Spartanburg County next

[VPH]

Wichita and Surrounding Areas

Wichita Proper
Downtown Wichita: Pretty Democratic (Dem +25 or so although Kelly won by 48%) but not superpopulated like some downtowns. Growing in artsy/creative class cachet so starting to vote more progressive. Bernie's 2016 HQ was located next to a microbrewery and a donut shop in the Douglas Design District.
North Central: Near I-35 it's VERY Hispanic, VERY Democratic. Riverside is pretty college-educated and White. Older but with pockets of hipster types which makes it Democratic and progressively so in areas.
Inner Northeast: Heavily African-American and also includes Wichita State University, so Democrats traditionally run up the margins here, with over 80% base vote usually. Home of Gail Finney, an early Sanders 2016 endorser. Tends to vote for African-American candidates in statewide primaries. Tillman did well here against Bollier, Singh-Bey against Wiesner, and Brewer (from here) against Kelly and Svaty.
Southeast: Pretty diverse working to middle-class area with a growing Hispanic population and the largest concentration of Vietnamese-Americans. Contested politically and Republicans had a Clinton-GOP district here that has since flipped to Democrats. Clinton won by about 7% but Laura Kelly won by 30%.
South Central: Historically Democratic, swung heavily away from Clinton especially near where the highways converge. Very WWC with some Hispanic pockets farther north. Lots of union machinists and other aerospace workers. Obama-Obama-Trump. This was Mayor Brandon Whipple's stomping ground. Democratic strength here is in part due to industrial nature but also because many economic migrants to Wichita throughout the 20th century came from the South. We nearly beat Senator Mike Peterson twice in a district that voted 58% for Donald Trump and Jim Ward is challenging him this year. A race to watch for sure because Biden will do well here compared to Clinton.
Inner West/Southwest: Traditionally WWC especially in the Southwest, which is now becoming increasingly Hispanic. Inner west is more middle class. The SW was narrowly won by McCain and Romney (around 4% margin) and then by an 11% margin by Trump, with an oddly high 3rd party vote. The Inner West (which I would put to the north of that) went for McCain by a similar margin, Romney by 11%, but Trump by 9%. House Minority Leader Tom Sawyer (a legend of Kansas politics and a walking encyclopedia on this stuff) represents a 53% Trump district anchored here. Farther west it's a little better off and more traditionally Republican, but not hyper-conservative. Senator Mary Ware's district (formerly held by Lt. Gov. Lynn Rogers) takes in much of the SW and is a Trump-Democratic district.
Outer-West: Middle to upper-middle-class suburbs but still in the city of Wichita, mostly GOP and narrowly voted for Kris Kobach. Swung a bit towards Hillary Clinton but she still barely cracked 30% here. Well-educated but also very religious.
East Wichita: Demographically similar to the Outer-West but even richer in some places and swinging harder towards the Democratic Party. Clinton made gains on Obama in many neighborhoods (Obama lost by 7 in 2008, 13 in 2012 and Clinton lost by 2 in 2016) and Laura Kelly dominated Kobach here. Democrats have a real shot at picking up state house and senate seats. The 30th District, home to Senate President Susan Wagle, would be a huge get.
College Hill: "Resist"-y wealthy neighborhood near the middle of the city, very college-educated and professional, lots of people from other states. Obama-Romney-Clinton and Laura Kelly won by an over 30% margin. Republicans here are moderate.

Suburbs
Haysville: One of the most Trumpy areas although it's a suburb. Less college-educated than other suburbs and historically where a lot of White factory workers lived. On a rare occasion will elect a Democrat (Steven Crum), perhaps a legacy of Democratic voting of old. Because many migrants to Wichita came from the South, there was a Democratic character here and in South Wichita. In 2008 it was McCain +23, 2012 Romney +29, 2016 Trump +36.5. Kelly lost by about 9%.
Derby: Middle-class suburb but also like really religious. Swung towards Democrats slightly from 2012-2016 and Kelly lost by only 7%.
Valley Center and Park City: See Derby but North of town. Have a more "country" vibe than most suburbs and it shows in your Dem %: 32% in 2008, 29% in 2012, and 25% in 2016 while in 2018, Kelly obtained 38%.
Maize: Well off west of town Republican burbs that swung slightly to Clinton but didn't come close to flipping. Wichita's mini version of the WOW counties along with the outer west.
Andover: Wealthy east-side suburb similar to Maize.
Bel Aire: The most moderate and diverse of the suburbs and trending D. Where I grew up. Democrats are usually good for around 30-35% here but have seen improvement over the years, with Clinton hitting 40% in BA-02 precinct, which is also included as the edge of a Democratic state house district that goes into NE Wichita. Kelly carried Bel Aire overall.
Goddard: More an exurb than a suburb, deep red, and Laura Kelly lost here by 20%.
Rose Hill, Andale: Rural communities on opposite sides of Sedgwick County where Obama won about 30% and Clinton was under 20% in 2016. Kelly nearly hit 40% in both. I think Andale is a pretty Catholic area similar to Kingman County.

Towns in Other Counties
Newton: Railroad town North of town in Harvey County. Laura Kelly won this county and there's a Democratic state Rep. in Tim Hodge, whose district gave Trump 60%. Decently sized Mennonite population, especially in North Newton where Clinton still carried a precinct. Newton itself swung away from Clinton to Trump.
Winfield: Smaller town about 45 minutes south of Wichita with a small college. Rather bustling arts scene and some manufacturing, Republican but pro-education. Voted for Laura Kelly but swinging away from Democrats over time. Ed Trimmer, the longtime state rep in the area, barely lost his seat after squeaking out a few wins.
Wellington: Centering Sumner County, this wheat-growing town used to be okay for Democrats like wheat-growing counties in SD but has swung hard. Elected Vincent Wetta for years and helped the 116th give a stunning 40% to Jolene Roitman in 2016 as Trump won 82% there. Her husband Rick, a former Navy Commander, is running this time around with Vince Wetta has his treasurer.
Kingman County: Heavily Catholic, used to still vote for some pro-life Democrats downballot but is all but gone for them now.

[Tekken_Guy]

Essex County, NJ

Newark: This is the county's main city. It's NJ's largest city and has large racial diversity.
Orange, East Orange, Irvington: Heavily black slumburbs west of Newark. Often vote 90%+ democratic.
Belleville: A mix of WWC and Hispanics here. Democrats usually get 60%+ here. GOP does well with whites but Democrats sweep the floor with minorities.
Bloomfield: Similar to Belleville; not as heavily Hispanic but quite a bit more racially diverse. Dems generally reach 70%+ here.
Nutley: Largely WWC. Elections are close here but tilt towards GOP. Obama lost it in '08, but won it in '12 post-Sandy.
Montclair, Glen Ridge: Latte-liberal towns that vote 70+% Democratic. Montclair is a little more diverse and thus generally votes to Glen Ridge's left.
Cedar Grove: Predominantly Italian and somewhat similar to Nutley. Somewhat wealther and better educated, but is a little more Republican.
Verona: Right south of Cedar Grove. Middle to upper-middle class. Republican-leaning in the past, Democratic-leaning right now. Went Clinton by high-single digits.
Caldwell, West Caldwell: Similar to Verona, middle to upper-middle class. Caldwell leans Democratic and West Caldwell Republican. Trump narrowly won West Caldwell and Biden has a good chance of picking it up. The two towns are twin towns sharing a school district.
North Caldwell, Essex Fells: Affluent country-club conservative territory, but have been zooming left recently. Trump only narrowly won North Caldwell and could very possibly lose it this November. Essex Fells is safer for the GOP but the margins are going down.
Fairfield: The most Republican party of the county. This is heavily Italian-American territory and Trump got over 70% here. My parents work here and my grandparents used to have an office here.
Roseland: Similar to North Caldwell and Essex Fells, although somewhat less affluent. The three towns, along with Fairfield, all are served by a single high school. Trump won it by around 10 in 2016 and Biden has a shot at flipping it this November.
South Orange, Maplewood: Virtually identical to Montclair in every way. Full of white liberals with sizable Black minorities -- Maplewood's is a bit larger though. These are another pair of twin towns with a shared school district. My grandparents used to live in South Orange.
West Orange: My hometown. Diverse melting pot town. Consists of middle-class whites alongside a mixture of racial minorities. Typically votes 70%+ Democratic.
Livingston: Highly affluent, very educated, and heavily Jewish. Has a large Asian-American minority as well. Once a tilt-D swing town, but now heavily Democratic.
Millburn, Short Hills: An even wealthier and more Democratic version of Livingston.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Anderson County! Going roughly N-> S

Powdersville: Once a rural farming area, it's becoming suburbanized extremely quickly. Probably most diverse area outside of maybe parts of Anderson (mostly thanks to a rapidly growing Indian population). Although it'll probably still vote 60-70% R, it's certainly trending D the next few years.

Piedmont, White Plains: Ultraconservative areas. 80%+ Trump. Went to school here, and basically anyone who mattered (aka those who have lived there forever) had last names that are also street names. Piedmont might actually be the most liberal area of it, since it actually is somewhat built up and has some non-white people, but slowly dying as an old mill village.

Pelzer-Williamston: Small-town conservative types. Honestly surprised that they're incorporated considering "muh taxes"

Between Williamston and Pendleton: Does anyone even live here? Very rural, but probably about as R as White Plains tbh

Pendleton: One of the few liberal bastions in the county thanks to Clemson being right across the county line.

Northlake: Affluent suburbs that haven't budged as far as trends go.

Townville/"Across Hartwell": Not a lot of people. Maybe slightly more liberal after the Townville shooting a couple of years back. Haven't been there a lot though.

Northern Anderson: See Northlake, though they have trended a little D. 60-70% R (?)

Central Anderson: The only real built up "city" in the county. This is probably the only real white liberal area outside of Pendleton. 60%+ D.

Southern Anderson: Very poor, very black, very Dem. Canvassed here for Bernie in 2016. Like 80-90%+D

Belton-Honea Path: Small towns, but with sizable African-American populations. Maybe 60% or so R.

StarrIva: Rural hamlets. Poor, working class, but dying out. Probably 70+% R.



Also: Tiger+Ninja+Me=Upstate Gang!!!

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Anderson: Home of TL Hanna High School (the setting of the movie “Radio”) and a huge Evangelical megachurch (NewSpring).

Ah yes, NewSpring corporate HQ. Seriously these things are like a chain or something, and they look like office buildings, not churches tbh

[Tiger08]

Pickens County, SC (reddest county in SC. Not over 200K people but why not)

Clemson: college town, mostly students, families of professors, and retirees. Somewhat affluent. A purple town politically. Students here are more R than most large universities in America. Went Rubio in the 2016 primaries on the GOP side. Was close in both 2016 and 2020 D primaries.

Easley- Typical small WCW Southern town. A couple neighborhoods are more like suburban Greenville though. Trump and Cruz both did well here. 70-75% R

Rest of the county- Titanium R is an understatement. Like much of North GA. Some of the reddest parts of SC. Typical rural white Appalachian South. Both Trump and Cruz were strong here in ‘16. 80ish% R.

Spartanburg County, SC

West Spartanburg inside of I-26- Predominantly poor Black neighborhood just outside of downtown. Some working class and diverse areas a little further away from downtown. 75% D overall.

North Spartanburg- diverse (White, Black, and Hispanic) and working class. 60% D

East Spartanburg and West Spartanburg outside of I-26- Middle-to-upper middle-class  white Southern suburbia, with some old money mixed in as you get closer to downtown on the East side. Rubio voters in GOP primaries. 60% R.

Greer, Duncan, Lyman: Very working class, home to former football powerhouse Byrnes HS and BMW’s largest plant in the world. About 60-65% white. 60% R

Rest of Spartanburg County- rural and/or WCW, with a few very small towns sprinkled in between. The Republicans here are FAR right (just search Lee Bright). 70% R

[Tiger08]

York County (and part of Lancaster County), SC

Rock Hill- mid-sized city south of Charlotte. Parts of it are suburban or lakefront neighborhoods. About 30% African American. Evenly split between Rs and Ds.

Fort Mill- affluent, well-educated Charlotte suburb. Mix of “Southern suburbia” and Northern transplants. Similar to Union County across the state line. About 60% R, but trending D. If SC goes purple, reducing GOP margins in places like this will be the reason why

Lake Wylie- similar to Fort Mill but with more retirees IIRC. 65% R

Indian Land- similar to Fort Mill but with a big Sun City retirement community in it. 60% R, will probably trend D

York- small Southern town with a decent sized (about 30-35%) Black population. Slightly R leaning.

Clover- small, mostly white Southern town. 65-70% R

Rest of York County- very white and rural. 70% R

[Tiger08]

Columbia area

Richland County

Forest Acres/most of the Eastern side of Columbia- affluent, mostly white part of town with a lot of old money Southerners. Historically R, but slightly less R than it used to be (probably 55%ish R). Republicans here voted Rubio in the 2016 primary.

Downtown Columbia- majority white and young. Dominated by USC students (who are probably 60%ish Dem if I had to guess) and Millennials (who have gentrified much of the area). 65%ish Dem overall. Bernie did better here than most places in SC.

Spring Valley/Blythewood/other NE suburbs of Columbia: fast-growing and middle-to-upper middle class with pockets of old money near Spring Valley. However, unlike Greenville, Columbia has a large Black middle class. Approximately evenly split between White and Black. Averages out to about 65% D (majority white sections are about 55% D, majority Black parts are about 70-75% D). Republicans here voted Rubio.

Irmo- more established middle-to-upper middle class suburb of Columbia. Has a decent sized Black middle class (the area is 25% African American). 50-55% R, look for it to trend blue. Republicans here voted Rubio.

North Columbia- poor and mostly Black. Very Democratic

Rest of Richland County- rural or low density suburban/urban (some areas are hard to describe) and majority Black. Poor or working class. 70% D

Lexington County

West Columbia/Cayce- Middle class/WCW part of Columbia. 70-75% White, 60-65% R. Trumpy Republicans.

Lexington/Chapin- a quintessential affluent fast growing Southern suburban/exurban area. Good public school system. Near a big lake. Historically VERY R on the level of counties like Forsyth GA, Williamson TN, and Shelby AL. I’d put it around 70-75% R, look for a slight D trend.

Rest of Lexington County- very rural and white. 70% R

[Hope For A New Era]

Finally got it about right after numerous attempts. Note that the boundaries aren't perfect, as working with precincts alone is a bit limiting. Maybe I'll draw a MSPaint map over a Google Earth image at some point, or something.

Here's my county (Platte, MO).



The names of areas I've given here are are either actual official place names, geographic descriptions, or names of local well-known things (for example, Burlington is the name of a shopping center and Waukomis is the name of a major road)

Area 1 (darker blue): Northern Platte County

(Almost) as Republican as anywhere else in rural Missouri. The northwest corner of the county had some Democrats as recently as 2008, but they're very, very gone now.

Area 2 (green): Platte City

A former rural town that is in the process of being eaten by Kansas City suburbia. Very white, almost entirely middle class. It has been solidly Republican for decades, but I've seen a pretty shocking number of Biden signs in the area. Perhaps a shift is on the way. We'll see.

Area 3 (darker purple): Parkville

My area. A former rural town that started being eaten in the late 70s and was more or less eaten by the mid 90s. The wealthiest part of the county. Historically it has been a land of moderate Republicans (big fans of McCain), but they appear to be fracturing into Trumpists and newly minted moderate Democrats. I expect a pretty substantial leftward shift in this area this year.

Area 4 (red): Tiffany Springs

A suburban area along the western part of Barry Road, the major road of the...northern half of the developed area of the county. Very "cookie-cutter" in some parts. Was almost exactly even in 2016. A small leftward shift looks likely.

Area 5 (yellow): Riverside + Northmoor

Two very small, very similar suburban areas. The only area with a substantial population of racial minorities. Also some industrial stuff happening. Has consistently been almost exactly even. Not anticipating any major change.

Area 6 (teal): Burlington

Demographically similar to Parkville, but with a very different development pattern. The densest part of the county by far. Was nearly even in 2016. A large leftward shift can be expected here too.

Area 7 (brown): "The Middle Area"

Demographically white and middle-class like nearly everywhere else here, but with much older houses and a distinctly more spread-out and "unplanned"-feeling development pattern. Historically has leaned slightly Republican, but I've seen quite a few Biden signs here. Perhaps a shift is on the way.

Area 8 (lighter purple): Platte Woods

Indistiguishable from 7 in demographics, development pattern, culture, and the like. It used to vote differently from 7 for some reason, but apparently doesn't anymore? In 2008 it was the most Democratic part of the county, but in 2016 it voted identically to 7. I have no idea why it used to vote differently or what caused it to stop doing so, but I guess we can assume it will do whatever 7 does this year.

Area 9 (lighter blue): not sure what to call this one

Is to Tiffany Springs as Burlington is to Parkville. That's all there is to it, really. Small leftward shift expected.

Area 10 (pink): Waukomis

Where the rest of the county's few WWC voters are, as well as some newer residential developments. Has consistently leaned slightly Democratic. Not anticipating any significant change this year.

[RINO Tom]

Chicago is too big, and I have only lived here for a year ... so I will do my former home county of Johnson County, IA.  I'll start with Iowa City, as it's the county seat, but then I will go in order of Democratic voting margin.

IOWA CITY (County Seat)
72.50% Clinton, 20.17% Trump
Iowa City is a true university town with an EXTREMELY liberal culture.  Also being extremely White, its liberalism is much more of the woke variety ... their protests went on way longer than many major cities that actually have large Black communities.  Growing up, it was a stereotype that the only real Republicans were transplants.  Even traditionally Republican groups like the wealthy or the religious were loyal Democrats due to largely being doctors or lawyers associated with the university or priests/pastors of rather liberal denominations.

UNIVERSITY HEIGHTS (My most recent home!)
73.71% Clinton, 19.86% Trump
University Heights is a tiny little fake community (that somehow has its own police department, which pulls people over for going like 28 mph in a 25...) that sits right next to the football stadium.  It's filled with grad students and university professors.  It's actually more Democratic than my current neighborhood precinct in Chicago (Gold Coast), lol.

CORALVILLE
65.49% Clinton, 27.09% Trump
While still definitely in the university's sphere of influence, you start to get a bit more "normal" of a vibe.  It's where the main mall is, and the vast majority of transplants move here, North Liberty or the west side of Iowa City, which is closer to Coralville than it is to downtown Iowa City for things like groceries.  It's still very Democratic, but you start to get some more Republican areas in the northern parts around Brown Deer Golf Course, which has a lot of nice surrounding neighborhoods.  It essentially functions as a "suburb" of Iowa City, though it has more of a "twin city" feel.

NORTH LIBERTY
58.58% Clinton, 32.03% Trump
North Liberty is ACTUALLY pretty much just a suburb (exurb) of Iowa City.  A bunch of people who work for the university live in new, relatively nice neighborhoods in North Liberty.  It still has a very small core of the "old downtown" or whatever, but its massive growth over the past two to three decades has led to the vast majority of "stuff" here being new developments, giving the town kind of a divide between "new North Liberty" and "old North Liberty."  However, the fundamental makeup of all of the towns we've mentioned hasn't been that different ... the increasing Republican votes as we go down so far is pretty much just from more transplants, slightly less university influence and more rural elements.

HILLS
55.05% Clinton, 35.48% Trump
Hills is a VERY small (like 600-700 people, IIRC) town about 10-15 minutes south of Iowa City with a decidedly rural and working class character ... frankly, the margins kind of surprise me, but that's Johnson County for you.  My very good friend (who actually now lives in Chicago!) is from there, and his dad is actually the mayor.   The main thing sustaining Hills is a very small number of new developments functioning as bedroom communities and the presence of Hills Bank, which has been remarkably successful (headquarters is STILL on "Main Street" in Hills but now has $3 billion in assets and has by far the biggest market share in Johnson County).

TIFFIN
54.59% Clinton, 37.51% Trump
Tiffin is literally a brand new community with no REAL "old downtown core" to speak of.  It's just west of Coralville, and it's exploding in growth ... it has almost quadrupled in size since 2000.  It's mostly full of very nice new bedroom communities and a few rural locals left.  I'm actually surprised it isn't more Republican, as it's literally a tiny, affluent exurb with a rural character, but again ... the reach of the university and Iowa City's liberalism is strong, and I am guessing a lot of the transplants are university employees.

SOLON
49.32% Clinton, 43.87% Trump
While we always thought of Solon as a strange, wooded community of football-worshiping knuckleheads (they are the "Spartans" for high school sports, and the community quite literally functions like Sparta except replacing war with football...), it's actually a fairly vibrant little town.  I knew quite a few people who worked in Iowa City and lived in Solon for the school district and more quiet atmosphere, and I also know quite a few people who moved out there in their older years.  A decent chunk of the population would be more "typical small town Iowa," but there are a lot of new developments, and you can still feel the Johnson County liberal vibe in the more commercially active areas like restaurants and local stores.  One of the most Republican precincts includes a stretch of breathtaking lakefront houses by Lake Macbride, which isn't exactly surprising ... I imagine wealthy rural voters are about as Republican as they come.

SHUEYVILLE
51.10% Trump, 42.49% Clinton
I had to keep going until I found a Republican community!  Lol.  Shueyville is about halfway between Cedar Rapids and Iowa City, so you do start to shed the university's cultural influence and get a more "mainstream" dynamic of employment variation.  While it is definitely fairly rural in character, Shueyville is actually the wealthiest community in Johnson County with a median household income of $120,000 - over twice that of Iowa City.  Again, it's no secret that a wealthy, rural community would be Republican, but the sheer closeness of this community again illustrates how fundamentally liberal Johnson County is and how much of a cultural sway the Democratic Party has over the community.  Growing up on the west side of Iowa City, I knew plenty of Republicans, but there was still this weird dynamic where Republicans mostly kept their opinions to themselves and were kind of expected to just silently disagree with their loud and opinionated Democratic coworkers and friends, lol.

Cool topic!

[Tiger08]

RINO Tom, are the students at Iowa more or less liberal than Iowa City as a whole? I know some schools have a divide (for a long time, the UGA student body was MUCH more conservative than the town of Athens, for example). I know Iowa City is much more liberal than Iowa as a whole, I was not sure if students from elsewhere are somewhat less liberal than the town

[RINO Tom]

RINO Tom, are the students at Iowa more or less liberal than Iowa City as a whole? I know some schools have a divide (for a long time, the UGA student body was MUCH more conservative than the town of Athens, for example). I know Iowa City is much more liberal than Iowa as a whole, I was not sure if students from elsewhere are somewhat less liberal than the town

I don't have any statistics at hand, but I would imagine that it would be about the same ... I was in the business school, and I would honestly say that the students I interacted with were about 50/50, with your "stereotype" of the White male business student at Iowa (often from Illinois) was more likely 65/35 Republican.  However, I imagine most of the other schools skewed quite Democratic, especially considering that some of Iowa's more prominent colleges like Creative Writing would be naturally liberal.  I would say the student body at Iowa would be about the same as Iowa City itself, making it slightly more Democratic than the metro area as a whole.  (I would say that most people familiar with the area would make quite literally zero distinction between Iowa City, University Heights and Coralville, then viewing North Liberty as slightly different and the rest of the places as decidedly "towns in the surrounding area.")

[lfromnj]

RINO Tom, are the students at Iowa more or less liberal than Iowa City as a whole? I know some schools have a divide (for a long time, the UGA student body was MUCH more conservative than the town of Athens, for example). I know Iowa City is much more liberal than Iowa as a whole, I was not sure if students from elsewhere are somewhat less liberal than the town

In Iowa city it is 69% Clinton and 22% Trump while the rest of iowa city is 73.3% Clinton and 19% Trump, but in Ames the students are actually 50/50 while the town was like +30 Clinton.

[RINO Tom]

One thing that might have literally made up the difference in the past is that in 2012, the White vote in Illinois was literally more Republican than the White vote in Iowa, and Iowa's student body was like 40% from Illinois or something crazy like that.  I would absolutely say with 1,000% certainty that the average White Iowa student that I met from Illinois (often times but not always the Chicago suburbs) was MUCH more Republican on average than the average instate Iowa student.

[lfromnj]

One thing that might have literally made up the difference in the past is that in 2012, the White vote in Illinois was literally more Republican than the White vote in Iowa, and Iowa's student body was like 40% from Illinois or something crazy like that.  I would absolutely say with 1,000% certainty that the average White Iowa student that I met from Illinois (often times but not always the Chicago suburbs) was MUCH more Republican on average than the average instate Iowa student.

Why are there so many students from Illinois in the iowa universities?

[RINO Tom]

One thing that might have literally made up the difference in the past is that in 2012, the White vote in Illinois was literally more Republican than the White vote in Iowa, and Iowa's student body was like 40% from Illinois or something crazy like that.  I would absolutely say with 1,000% certainty that the average White Iowa student that I met from Illinois (often times but not always the Chicago suburbs) was MUCH more Republican on average than the average instate Iowa student.

Why are there so many students from Illinois in the iowa universities?

I mean, the stereotype is that Iowa is full of students who couldn't get into the University of Illinois, and while that isn't 100% true ... I knew plenty of people who fit that stereotype perfectly.   Within the Big Ten, Iowa has a reputation as being a VERY fun school, too.  While Illinois is also a very fun school (cool college town and consistently ranks in the top party schools), I personally would say Iowa is a step above, mostly due to the insane tailgating culture; we lived for those Saturdays, and I am SO bummed I won't get to at all this fall.

For a broader answer, though, there are 13 million people in Illinois vs. about 3 million in Iowa and 6.5 million in Indiana.  Illinois isn't that big of a school (about 10,000 bigger than Iowa, last time I checked), and a lot of students find Iowa, Indiana, Purdue, etc. as a good alternative to go "out of state" for college while still getting a very respected Big Ten degree.  All those students have to go somewhere!

Also, there has long been a "myth" that OUT-of-state tuition at Iowa is still cheaper than IN-state tuition at Illinois ... while this could maybe work out to be true with scholarships or something, from everything I have ever seen, this is total bullshlt, haha.

[Hassan 2022]

The NH Seacoast:

This is a region that spans two counties (Rockingham and Strafford) and has a roughly-defined western edge that exists somewhere between routes 108 and 125.

Portsmouth:
This is the hub of the Seacoast region. The only official "city" in Rockingham County, it is actually smaller in population than Londonderry, Derry, and Salem, all of which are organized as "towns." The Downtown, South End, and Little Harbor areas are the wealthiest parts of the city, followed by the gentrifying West End, the solidly middle-class densely-settled area north of North Mill Pond, and the working-to-middle class areas north/west of I-95 and south of Elwyn and Peverly Hill roads. The city is heavily Democratic and has been among the most Democratic areas of the state of New Hampshire for a long time, often bucking broader state and local Seacoast trends to support the Democrats at all levels of government. Originally the city voted Democratic due to its strong labor base and comparatively high levels of unionization, but now Portsmouth votes consistently Dem due to a combination of its arts community, its popularity as a place of short/long-term living for UNH grads, its younger/transient population, and general social liberalism. Wards 2 and 5 are the most Democratic (these comprise the West End, South End, and Little Harbor areas) and Wards 1, 3, and 4 are also solidly Dem but slightly less so (these are the more "suburban" wards on the outskirts of Downtown).

New Castle:
Adjacent to the South End of Portsmouth, New Castle is similarly historic and densely-populated yet is historically much more politically conservative than its neighbor to the west. The only town in NH located entirely on an island, many people who live in New Castle have family there who have lived there for generations and it gives off an old money vibe that Portsmouth lacks. Despite how staid the community is, a combination of the town's socially moderate Republicans swinging to the left in their voting habits and Portsmouth/out-of-state residents moving in over the past 10 years have totally changed way New Castle votes. It's possible that despite New Castle's Republican history the town could vote against Sununu in the 2020 gubernatorial race.

Rye:
Similarly to New Castle, Rye is a fairly wealthy coastal community that has deep Republican roots but has swung significantly to the left in the 21st century. In line with national/local suburban trends, Rye is now almost guaranteed to support Democrats in federal elections. I wouldn't be surprised to see Biden get a historic % of the vote for the Democrats in this community. While much friendlier to Sununu-style Republicans in gubernatorial races, in 5-10 years (without a Sununu on the ballot) Rye could easily support a Democrat for governor.

Newington:
Chopped up by suburban strip mall development, Pease, and Spaulding Turnpike construction, Newington is a thinly populated community with its center of population being on the Great Bay side of the community away from Fox Run Mall and Woodbury Avenue shopping centers. Formerly agricultural and maintaining some old farms from a long time ago, Newington acts as a small bedroom community of Portsmouth/Dover with a fairly exurban/rural character centered on Fox Point, Little Bay, and Nimble Hill roads. Unlike most historically Republican communities in the northern part of the Seacoast, Newington has continued in its support for Republicans at the federal level (narrowly voting for Trump in 2016) but has its fair share of Democratic support as well. Biden could win the town in 2020 but it’s definitely one of the more Trumpy communities in the immediate area.

Greenland:
An immediate western suburb of Portsmouth, Greenland has a mix of suburban tract homes, exurban development/McMansions, and historic farm houses that dot its older roads that criss-cross the town. Like Rye, Greenland has swung left in recent years and is unlikely to support Republicans in most federal and state elections anytime soon. The influence of Portsmouth's liberal politics has trickled into Greenland perhaps the most strongly out of all the communities surrounding Portsmouth, as Greenland is one of the few "affordable" options left with ample housing in a region that is severely lacking in housing stock for young families and middle class people.

Dover:
Just to the north of Newington, Dover is the largest community on the Seacoast population-wise, with over 30,000 people living within the city limits. Located in Strafford County, Dover and the neighboring Strafford County communities of Rollinsford, Somersworth, Madbury, and Durham are heavily connected culturally, economically, and politically to the Portsmouth area. Like Portsmouth, Dover is heavily Democratic and slightly more progressive than its neighbor to the southeast, supporting Bernie with a greater % of the vote in both 2016 and 2020. Again in a similar fashion to Portsmouth, the immediate downtown wards are more Democratic-voting than the more "suburban" wards on the outskirts of the city, though the Dover "suburban" wards are a bit less Democratic than their Portsmouth equivalents. The presence of UNH grads here is even stronger than in Portsmouth, and Dover's core is much more diverse than Portsmouth's, with a strong Indonesian immigrant presence north of the Cocheco River.

Rollinsford:
Adjacent to Dover, Rollinsford is a unique small town combining a densely-populated mill-adjacent district on the Salmon Falls River and large tracts of farmland that make up most of the rest of the town's land area up to the Dover/Somersworth borders. Compared to Dover, Rollinsford is much more divided between the Democrats and the Republicans, though it consistently (yet narrowly) votes for Democrats in most races at all levels of government. This persistent Democratic lean is aided by both a traditional Democratic voting bloc that is more moderate and labor-focused and a small but vibrant arts community centered in converted mill buildings by the river.

Somersworth:
A heavily working-class, traditionally French-Canadian community, Somersworth's politics have a similar Democratic lean to Rollinsford, one which is likely to persist despite Trump improving upon 2008/2012 Republican performances in the city in 2016. Despite pockets of fervent Trump support in more "suburban" areas of the city, the Democrats here tend to be progressive and there are growing LGBTQ+ and immigrant communities (with the Indonesian community being well-represented).

Durham:
Centered around UNH, Durham is the quintessential New England college town, with large numbers of students and faculty living in the town's borders contributing to an overwhelming Democratic voter presence here. Even in the more rural and less-developed areas of town there are still deep connections to the university, making the politics in the downtown area almost indistinguishable from those on the edges of town. In line with its college town status, the Democrats here are some of the most progressive in the state.

Newmarket:
Adjacent to Durham, Newmarket’s progressive politics are at once informed by the presence of UNH students/faculty/grads and an enduring working-class Democratic voting bloc. Along with Portsmouth and Exeter, Newmarket is one of the most Democratic-voting communities in Rockingham County.

Newfields:
Just to Newmarket’s south, Newfields is a postage stamp of a community that is sandwiched in between heavily liberal Newmarket and Exeter. Despite its neighboring communities’ Democratic politics, Newfields is historically Republican and like many Seacoast communities (especially ones that are wealthier) it has trended heavily Democratic in recent years. It continues to support the Republican candidate for governor (Chris Sununu is a resident of the town, as is Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan) and is similar to the socially liberal, fiscally moderate politics in many communities that surround Portsmouth on the Seacoast.

Exeter:
Home to Phillips Exeter Academy and a dense downtown core, Exeter is the southwestern extent of the Seacoast’s liberalism, with exurban communities to the south and west supporting Republicans consistently. One of the most Democratic communities on the Seacoast along with Portsmouth, Dover, and Newmarket, its Democratic politics are the most moderate of the major Dem centers, with Buttigieg and Klobuchar taking the top two spots in the 2020 NH Democratic Primary.

North Hampton:
South of Rye along the Atlantic Ocean coastline, North Hampton is similarly wealthy and has experienced a similar swing to the left yet to a slightly lesser extent than its neighbor to the north. Both Clinton and Trump failed to reach 50% of the vote in the community, but Clinton did end up winning narrowly in 2016. However, Joe Biden will likely drastically improve in % of the vote here in 2020.

Hampton:
Hampton has a Democratic/Republican split that echoes North Hampton (its northern neighbor), but its economic profile is much more working/middle-class. Home to ex-Massachusetts residents, longtime New Hampshirites, and short-term residents who periodically live in Hampton Beach, its Democrats are as moderate as those in North Hampton yet its Republicans are much more Trump-friendly and willing to show it. It isn’t uncommon to see a house with Biden and Black Lives Matter signs right next door to a house with Trump and “Blue Lives Matter” signs. It’s evidence of a community deeply divided and split down the middle politically.

Hampton Falls:

One of the wealthiest communities in the entire state, not to mention the Seacoast region, Hampton Falls hasn’t caught up with much of the rest of Seacoast in shedding its historical Republicanism and voting for Democrats in most races. While it has certainly trended D recently, it continues to support Republican candidates for President, Senate, etc. Other than Seabrook, Hampton Falls will likely stay in the Republican column for the foreseeable future though it’s not out of the realm of possibility that this town will vote Dem in 10 years or so.

Seabrook:
Seabrook stands out for its strongly pro-Trump politics, voting over 60% for Trump in 2016 and ultimately being the most Republican town on the NH Seacoast and one of the most Republican towns on the Atlantic in New England outside of Downeast Maine past Bar Harbor. Being a stronghold for Massachusetts tax exiles, #populists, and ancestral Democrats who have swung significantly away from the Democratic Party, Seabrook is an anomaly in a region characterized by progressive-to-moderate politics and general anti-Trump sentiment.

Stratham:
Unlike Seabrook, Stratham is one of the more anti-Trump exurbs surrounding Portsmouth on the Seacoast. While moderate, Stratham has seen one of the strongest shifts away from the Republicans in a community where Romney began his campaign for president in 2011. Portsmouth spillover, out-of-state in-migration, and ancestral Republican political shifts have all contributed to the massive changes that have taken place in the town’s political demographics. Expect Stratham to give Biden a historic Democratic vote margin in 2020.

Madbury:
A small, rural town shaped like a pizza slice in between progressive Dover and Durham, Madbury is a bit more politically mixed but still progressive overall, voting for Democrats at all levels of government. Notably, this small town is home to popular NH Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

This is a very cool and interesting thread. Would love if people could contribute to it.

[beesley]

May I contribute for the UK? I understand if that would be considered to derail the thread. In any case, I will enjoy reading this.

[VPH]

This is a very cool and interesting thread. Would love if people could contribute to it.

Probably one of my favorite threads in modern years