States’ largest cities that will vote for Trump.

[mileslunn]

Sioux Falls and Fargo I think Biden wins although wouldn't be surprised if Trump wins Cass County and Minnehaha County due to strength in rural areas.  He wins Cheyenne and he will also win Billings as usually Billings votes just as Republican as state as a whole.  Oklahoma City will be close but I think narrowly for Trump but Biden win there quite possible.  

Anchorage I believe will probably go for Trump as results there are usually close to statewide average so unless Biden is competitive in Alaska which despite some polls, I don't believe he will be.

Wichita, Kansas is another possibility.  Certainly Sedgwick County will go for Trump and with over half the county's population in Sedgwick county I think Trump narrowly wins Wichita.

So my guesses are Billings, Cheyenne, Wichita, and Oklahoma City.  Below is the list for reference

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_cities_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_population

[mileslunn]

Starting west of the Rockies:

Alaska: Fairbanks
Arizona: Mesa
California: Huntington Beach, Simi Valley, or Murrieta
Idaho: Meridian
Hawaii: Probably nowhere
Nevada: Henderson or Carson City
Oregon: Keizer or Grants Pass
Washington: Spokane Valley or Kennewick

I think Anchorage will still go for Trump.  For California, I believe Bakersfield is bigger than three mentioned and I think Trump will likely win it.  For Oregon, Albany and Medford are both larger than two cities mentioned and I think Trump will win both of those.  On other hand Simi Valley and Huntington Beach narrowed considerably so while Trump probably narrowly wins both, I could see Biden narrowly winning either.  

For Hawaii, Trump should win Niihau which while a small private island it always votes heavily GOP as well as the village of Kahuku which is on back side of Oahu and has around 2,600 people voted for Trump by 20 points so he probably holds that one too.

[mileslunn]

Alabama: Mobile
Alaska: If Biden wins Anchorage then Fairbanks by default.
Arizona: Mesa. Easy.
Arkansas: Fort Smith
California: I'm going to assume Bakersfield.
Colorado: Colorado Springs of course.
Connecticut: ...I have no idea.
Delaware: Uh, Seaford?
Florida: Hialeah
Georgia: Sandy Springs
Hawaii: none
Idaho: Meridian
Indiana: Fort Wayne
Iowa: Probably not Sioux City actually. So Council Bluffs? If not there then Ankeny.
Kansas: Wichita is a possibility, but if not then...Hutchinson
Louisiana: Lafayette?
Maine: no idea
Maryland: Cumberland apparently.
Massachusetts: Totally beats me.
Michigan: Sterling Heights, or Livonia if Biden pulls that off.
Minnesota: Lakeville as stated.
Mississippi: Gulfport
Missouri: Springfield
Montana: Billings
Nebraska: Bellevue
Nevada: Boulder City
New Hampshire: Derry
New Jersey: Toms River?
New Mexico: I honestly don't know enough about the geography here.
New York: One of those Long Island "towns". Don't know enough to say which one.
North Carolina: Probably Concord
North Dakota: Since NDSU classes are in session I bet Biden takes Fargo, so right here in Bismarck.
Ohio: Hamilton
Oklahoma: Tulsa
Oregon: Medford?
Pennsylvania: Altoona
Rhode Island: ...no clue
South Carolina: Mount Pleasant
South Dakota: Going to be optimistic and say Rapid City
Tennessee: Did Trump win Knoxville proper? If so then there.
Texas: Plano, or Lubbock if Biden can even win that.
Utah: Provo
Vermont: ...yeah totally beats me.
Virginia: I don't think Trump takes Chesapeake or Virginia Beach, so Lynchburg.
Washington: Yakima
West Virginia: Charleston
Wisconsin: Waukesha
Wyoming: Cheyenne

Clinton won Charleston, West Virginia by pretty decent margin despite losing county by 10 points so won't be it for West Virginia.  Probably Parkersburg for West Virginia.

[mileslunn]

Washington State:

I believe #11 Spokane Valley would be the correct answer.

Here is how Cities in Washington State voted in 2016:



I would be surprised if #10 Yakima does not flip in 2020, considering that Trump was not only under 50%, but also a large number of 3rd Party votes in 2016.

There is little reason to suspect that Spokane Valley would resemble the type of place to overcome 1 +16.8% Trump win in 2016...

Surprised Clinton won by almost ten points in Spokane, thought it would be closer.  I guess suburbs and rural areas went heavily for Trump.  Bellevue and other Seattle suburbs very interesting as Bush in 2004 got over 40% in most of those so strong swing away from GOP there.

[mileslunn]

Washington State:

I believe #11 Spokane Valley would be the correct answer.

Here is how Cities in Washington State voted in 2016:



I would be surprised if #10 Yakima does not flip in 2020, considering that Trump was not only under 50%, but also a large number of 3rd Party votes in 2016.

There is little reason to suspect that Spokane Valley would resemble the type of place to overcome 1 +16.8% Trump win in 2016...

Surprised Clinton won by almost ten points in Spokane, thought it would be closer.  I guess suburbs and rural areas went heavily for Trump.  Bellevue and other Seattle suburbs very interesting as Bush in 2004 got over 40% in most of those so strong swing away from GOP there.

Yeah. It's crazy to see Bellevue swing from Gore around 55% in 2000 to Biden being presumably over 75% this time around. Not something you see much discussion of because King County has always been safe blue, but the Eastside has realigned as hard as any suburban area in the country.

East side of King County is fairly affluent so should be good to GOP, but very educated.  A lot of people in the tech sector so as GOP has become more populists and anti-science really hurt them there.  Also on demographics too, its a mix of lots of college educated whites, but also Asians and those were groups GOP used to do well amongst but have swung hard against them since. 

Darien, Connecticut another example of this as Romney got 65% in 2012 but then Trump only got 41% in 2016.  Generally found a lot of the wealthiest areas and areas with lots of college educated whites saw big swings away from GOP.  Trump on other hand saw similar swings in his favour amongst blue collar whites and since latter were in right states it worked in his favour.

[mileslunn]

Trump ended up winning Orland Township by 13 points.  Larger than his 2016 victory and even more than Romney's 2012 margin.  Certainly his largest municipality victory in Illinois.

Interesting to see how it has diverged from demographically similar areas in DuPage County.

Did he or does it still have many outstanding ballots?  In Illinois, places with few outstanding ballots, Trump is either flat or gap widening.  Places where it narrowed are mostly places with still many ballots to count and we know mail in tend to heavily favour Biden.