States’ largest cities that will vote for Trump. (user search)
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  States’ largest cities that will vote for Trump. (search mode)
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Author Topic: States’ largest cities that will vote for Trump.  (Read 11521 times)
Badger
badger
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Posts: 40,252
United States


« on: September 19, 2020, 11:21:02 PM »

Illinois: Decatur
Maryland: Salisbury or Cumberland
New Jersey: Lakewood
New York: Utica
Pennsylvania: Altoona
Tennessee: Murfreesboro
Texas: Probably Plano, if not then definitely Lubbock


Decatur voted for Clinton by a not-insignificant margin.

For the record, the largest city to vote for Trump in IL in 2016 was Orland Park, which was around Trump +9-10 (imprecise precinct estimate). It is possible that it will vote for Trump again, though in this environment it's probably a tossup.

Not Jacksonville? I realized Trump only won Duval County by a very narrow margin, but since Jacksonville's over 95% of the population of the county....
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Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,252
United States


« Reply #1 on: October 04, 2020, 12:22:21 AM »

Michigan: Largest Trump '16 City:

#4: Sterling Heights....   Tilt / Lean Trump in 2020.


So to follow up on my preceding post--- adding in numbers for

Sterling Heights--- US House 2002 to 2018:





Sterling Heights--- Michigan Governor 2002 to 2018:



So--- how to interpret all of this data?

1.) Sterling Heights has consistently had a Republican lean relative to statewide results at the Presidential level for every election from 2000 to 2016.

Bush won the city by 2.7% and 3.6% respectively in 2000 and 2004.

Even Obama significantly under-performed in both 2008 and 2012, despite winning the City both times but well below his statewide margins in Michigan.

2.) There is no way to read the 2016 Presidential election results in Sterling Heights other than as a total collapse of Democratic support, and unlike in many other places where 3rd Party voting was a major reason, here it is clear that there was a significant swing towards Trump and his brand of Republicanism.

3.) For Sterling Heights to flip at the Presidential level, it would involve a massive swing almost on the order of the 2012 > 2016 Republican swing.

4.) Overall the US Senate numbers from Sterling Heights would appear to be generally favorable for Democrats (With the exception of 2000), and indicate that perhaps partisan affiliation is more malleable than Presidential top-line numbers might suggest.

5.) On it's surface the 2018 Senate numbers could be construed as a possible sign that Sterling Heights is moving back at the Presidential level in 2020.

The overall total turnout was at a record level for an off-year election with 48.6k US-SEN ballots cast and a +2.5% D win in the City.

However, I am not totally convinced yet that this is the case, especially considering this was the worst result for a DEM for US-SEN in the City since 2000!

6.) The US-House numbers tell an interesting story, and perhaps also could be interpreted as positive movement in the direction of the Democratic Party.

     A.) From 2002 > 2010 Republicans effectively dominated the US-House vote within the City, winning by convincing, and in some cases overwhelming margins.

    B.) 2012/2014 proved better for the DEMs with redistricting and solid margins in CD-09

    C.) In 2016 we see Republicans edging out Democrats narrowly in the total House vote within Sterling Heights and the Republican vote share in CD-09 moving up to almost 45% of the vote.

   D.) 2018 was essentially very close to 2016, with some minor DEM gains overall but with the best performance for a DEM in the CD-10 portion of the City...

So on balance, it's difficult to see any clear evidence that 2018 US House results are indicative of 2020 PRES voting patterns here...

7.) The Gubernatorial results from 2018 perhaps might be the clearest indicator of shifts that might roll into 2020, considering that since 2002 generally Sterling Heights has been a Republican City (with the exception of 2006)... since these are all off-year elections it might auger potential bigger shifts within the electorate that could transfer into 2020.

Will it be enough? Do we really have sufficient evidence that Biden will be able to create a +12% PRES Swing in Sterling Heights in 2020?

At this point, I'm still gonna go with my gut that this is a Tilt / Lean Trump City in 2020...















Just adding a reminder Stirling Heights Republican mayor has endorsed Biden, fwiw.
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