So in 2016 Kander almost beat Blunt in Springfield, with Blunt held down to only 48.0%?
So in 2018 McCaskill (D) beat Hawley (R) in Springfield 49.9% to 45.5% (+4.4% D)?
Obviously the situation is a bit more complicated, and I have not addressed the whole "Greene County Absentee" question when it comes to City vs Non-City...
Split Precinct might slightly shift a few things on the margins as well when it comes to the % of the actual vote within the City itself...
Still '16 and '18 DEM for US-SEN results might actually bode well for Biden as a potential "Flip City", not to mention some of the polling results we have seen for MO, where the 'Burbs of St. Louis and KC cannot explain?
Also might explain shifts in neighboring parts of NW Arkansas?
Adding to this the fact that Galloway won the whole county in 2018 and Yes won in the county on the Medicaid expansion referendum, it's clear that Greene County is increasingly a component of any strong Democratic or left-wing performance in the state. If McCaskill beat Hawley in Springfield while losing the state by 6, then with two more years of trends, I think Biden winning the city is looking very likely at this point. He probably has a chance at winning it even if he loses the state by 10 points.
As for those Trump +6 and +5 polls...well, it's possible we could be seeing really dramatic leftward shifts in Greene and St. Charles counties. That combined with a rural bounce-back could create that result. If Biden can cut rural margins as much as Galloway did in 2018, things could get really interesting.
Now I'm wondering if Jefferson City could be a flip city as well. Cole County is really odd. For most of its history it's been very consistently Republican despite being the state capital (Nixon lost it in both of his landslide gubernatorial wins), but in 2018 Galloway won it pretty comfortably. Not sure what happened there. The county has gone Democratic before, but it has never been more Democratic than any of its neighbors, until the huge swing out of nowhere in 2018.
