States’ largest cities that will vote for Trump.

[NOVA Green]

I love Atlas....

[NOVA Green]

Huntsville is about 50/50 on composite and it trended D in 2016 so it probably voted for Clinton. .And sandy springs was double digit Clinton BRTD.

In that case, Hoover, AL and Johns Creek, GA.

Regarding Alabama:



#3: Huntsville appears to have narrowly voted Trump in 2016.

Reagente and Fmr Pres Griffin parsed the precinct results from Huntsville in 2016 (Although slightly tricky because of some split precincts and other items...

Trump - 39,008 (47.3%)
Clinton - 38,030 (46.1%)

Additionally as Adam Griffin pointed out, it appears that there was decreased turnout in '16 in the heavier African-American precincts, but *yet* HRC almost pulled a win and kept Trump to under 50%, indicating the swings towards the DEMs were heaviest in White Educated parts of the City.

Needless to say even if the PRES 2020 GE tightens a bit, and even if swings are not universal (they never are), Huntsville appears to be a place that Biden should win, and quite possibly by 5-10% points.

#4 Tuscaloosa is obviously ruled out...

I ran the precinct numbers from 2016 on another thread...

Trump: 17,073   (40.9% R)
HRC:    22,827   (54.7% D)     + 13.8% D

Needless to say regardless of the "Townies vs Gownies" discussion, even if Student Turnout is down a bit because of COVID-19 it is extremely doubtful that this would impact City results in a negative direction considering the fundamentals here.

#5 Hoover: is probably the correct guess...

That being said...  Hoover was only roughly 60-40 Trump in '16 but went 60-40 Doug Jones for Senate in Dec '17 for a 40% DEM Swing!!!!

Now although I am not predicting that Hoover will vote for Joe Biden, even with a +10% Ntl hypothetical win as per current polling avgs, if we look at the DEC '17 US-SEN results, it is not entirely implausible to envision at minimum Hoover dropping to only high single digit Trump '20...

Again this is precisely the type of place (even in Alabama) which is rapidly moving against the Republican Brand, with extremely high levels of educational attainment, decent incomes, and an ethnically diversifying suburb on the edge of a large Metro area....

Anyways here's some stuff on '16 PRES vs '17 SEN Special Election that I posted on Jefferson County and then some other items elsewhere on maybe about 8-9 different Counties in Alabama using precinct results to crunch some numbers.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=288717.msg6136333#msg6136333

[NOVA Green]

Alaska:

Anchorage is really trippy, since I'm not sure the exact % and Raw Votes in '16 in Anchorage (Even if we adjust for precinct splits) mainly bcs of how absentee ballots situation being wrapped into AK CD's....

Best guess I could find when I initially took a look at a few years back was 47-53 Trump in '16 as a % of two part vote, but honestly the City deserves a deeper dive, since I never totally went back and re-parsed....

If we know the "Baseline Numbers" from '16 for Anchorage, it will help inform our current assessment of the GE PRES Election in AK based upon Ntl and Statewide polling, and multiple other variables and fuel further debate and discussion...

Let's figure out the exact 2016 PRES GE numbers from Anchorage, and then start the discussion??

[NOVA Green]

As NOVA has been getting to, every state (I think) had this data gathered for 2016, making it much easier to determine likeihoods.

Largest city/municipality in each state to vote for Trump

Additional data for states like TX on pages 5 & 6

Fmr. Pres. Adam Griffin is absolutely correct in that there were tons of different projects on various threads where a large number of Atlas / Talk-Election members invested a significant amount of labor to obtain the most accurate results possible by Cities throughout the United States for the 2016 PRES GE, using official precinct results to determine raw vote margins and % by Political Candidate / Party Vote.

Granted some of these threads, such as the one which Adam posted the link to are extremely lengthy reads, but also extremely informative (and there are many many others as well).

Not only would I hate to see Atlas "reinvent the wheel" in terms of covering actual election results from an extremely precinct level detailed analysis, but additionally my concern is that so much raw data and labor hours of crowd-sourcing and individual contributions are effectively "buried", simply because Atlas doesn't have a good system of managing the combination of actual detailed election results combined with detailed precinct level analysis, political geography, county level breakdowns in various threads within a more comprehensive manner.

Unfortunately I don't have a means of presenting a solution to this conundrum, but suspect maybe somehow more sophisticated search queries software might help resolve?   (Slight OT rant, but it frequently takes me much longer to find even my own posts from X Years ago than it should.    )

IDK....

[NOVA Green]

Arkansas:

#2 Fort Smith is a reasonable proposition for the largest city in the state to vote for Trump:

Reagente published the following based upon precinct summation:

"Arkansas

Trump wins Fort Smith (#2). Clinton evidently won Little Rock (#1).

Some bits of unincorporated Sebastian County got included in this, but I don't think very many people live in those bits.

Trump - 13,958 (54.92%)
Clinton - 9,301 (36.59%)"

So basically Fort Smith is + 18.3% Trump '16...

Now haven't looked at the 3rd Party Votes for '16 and although the City is basically a working-class factory town (14.6% of the work-force occupations are in MFG) and 21.0% of the work-force is in the MFG Industry (!!!), the population is also increasingly ethnically diverse.

Only 61% Anglo followed by 18% Latino, 9% African-American, and 6% Asian-American...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_Smith,_Arkansas

Granted again Latino % of POP does not = % of Voters and all that....

Still at minimum, Trump is only winning Fort Smith by high single digits at max in the event of an 8-10% Biden win....

Difficult to see Trump not capturing 50% of the vote here in 2020 as a floor, but strangers things have happened, and honestly working-class town like this where the kids all go the same schools that parents in their '30s and early '40s with kids in Elementary and Middle School, whose parents work in the same factories and regional medical centers, that this place might be a "lot more woke" from the roots than one might expect....

[NOVA Green]

Arizona:

#3 Mesa is the obvious safe pick here on the betting odds...

I seem to recall having done some research elsewhere on one of the Arizona election threads and:

#1 Phoenix

Something like the following (split-precincts here and there, etc...)

HRC:      276,438     (53.6%)
DJT:       201,434     (39.0%)        +14.6% DEM

On another thread the Upper-Income DEM Wealthy Anglo and educated precincts within CD-08 swung heavy DEM in the SE.... etc....

#2 Tucson:

When I ran the precinct numbers elsewhere some time back on another thread...

Tucson (Without Split Precincts)

97,403 HRC (62.2% D), 47,376 Trump (30.3% R)                         + 31.9% D

Tucson (Only Split Precincts)

28,567 HRC (54.8% D), 19,946 Trump (38.3% R)                         + 16.5% D

Total Tucson:  (including both precincts solely within City limits and split precincts that include a part of the City, as unincorporated areas outside)...

125,970 HRC (60.4% D), 67,322 (32.3% R)                              + 28.1% D


#3 Mesa:

So here are the precinct numbers I ran from Mesa in the '16 PRES GE:

HRC:      68,370     (37.0%)
DJT:       99,022      (53.5%)        +16.5% PUB

So... you got a 64% Anglo Joint with 27% Latino...

MHI only $50.6k/Yr... 

Age tracks closely AZ avg but the bulge is basically 22-34 in yrs...

Not seeing enough on the demographics here to indicate a flip, but hell a city of 470k obviously doesn't get enough detailed attention on Atlas these days....

Biden flips AZ, his road is directly like Sherman's march through Georgia sweeping through the Anglo communities of Maricopa County, plus jacking up Latino, Asian, African-American, and Native American Turnout throughout the entire State.

More than happy to see perspectives of those much more familiar with metro Phoenix than I am... Still any City in a large Metro area where Trump is only sitting in the low to mid '50s back in '16 starts to become a laser target in my eyes, especially when there are EC Votes, US-SEN Votes, as well as many other elections on the line....

[NOVA Green]

California:

#9 Bakersfield:

I have mixed feelings here...

2008:

Obama (D):  45,242       (42.9%)
McCain (R):  58,602       (55.6%)
TOTAL:        105,414

2012:

Obama (D):   44,141      (42.8%)
Romney (R)   57,084      (55.3%)
TOTAL:          103,150

2016:

Clinton (D):     50,390     (44.0%)
Trump (R):      57,670     (50.4%)
TOTAL:           114,399

1.) The Democratic % of the vote increased between '08/'12 and '16, while the Republican Presidential candidate actually lost almost 5%.

2.) Perhaps more significantly, this occurred predominately because of a +6k increase in RAW DEM votes, with PUB numbers stagnant between '12 and '16.

3.) Additionally, the TOTAL votes increased by 11k between '12 and '16.

4.) What this suggests to me, is that the increase in DEM support between '12 and '16 was predominantly driven by a surge in New Voters, presumably a mixture of Latino and Younger voters.

5.) If this pattern manifests itself again in 2020, that alone might be enough to flip Bakersfield even if there are only relatively minor defections from Trump '16 voters. Plus, the 3rd Party votes should be a bit lower in 2020 with Biden the most likely beneficiary.

6.) I would not expect to see the swings as heavy in Bakersfield as large as nationally (with the caveat regarding new voters and 3rd Party 2016 voters).

If not Bakersfield, what next?

# 22 Huntington Beach?

2008:

Obama (D):  42,622       (45.3%)
McCain (R):  49,528       (52.6%)
TOTAL:         94,099

2012:

Obama (D):    37,093      (41.0%)
Romney (R):   51,166      (56.5%)
TOTAL:           90,514


2016:

Clinton (D):     40,980     (43.7%)
Trump (R):      47,007     (50.1%)
TOTAL:            93,858

The thing that really stands out here is the Trump '16 % numbers at barely over 50%.... the other thing is that Obama/Romney '12 numbers appears as a bit of an aberration heavily caused by lower DEM Turnout combined with Obama '08 > Romney '12 cross-overs.

Still it would be difficult to see Huntington Beach NOT flipping in 2020 considering the overall demographics, State of National polling etc...

If both Bakersfield AND Huntington Beach were to flip what would be the next largest city that Trump will win in 2020??

Blairite posited the following upthread....

"California: Huntington Beach, Simi Valley, or Murrieta"

[NOVA Green]

If both Bakersfield AND Huntington Beach were to flip what would be the next largest city that Trump will win in 2020??

Blairite posited the following upthread....

"California: Huntington Beach, Simi Valley, or Murrieta"

Well, here are the possibilities now that I've actually done the precinct analysis, ranked by population in 2010 (DJT 2016 vote share):

23. Huntington Beach (50.2%)
24. Santa Clarita (45.0%)
25. Garden Grove (32.3%)
26. Santa Rosa (21.3%)
27. Oceanside (42.5%)
28. Rancho Cucamonga (45.3%)
29. Ontario (30.5%)
30. Lancaster (41.1%)
31. Elk Grove (33.6%)
32. Palmdale (31.7%)
33. Corona (46.0%)
34. Salinas (22.0%)
35. Pomona (21%)
36. Torrance (37.0%)
37. Hayward (15.2%)
38. Escondido (44.3%)
39. Sunnyvale (18.3%)
40. Pasadena (19.0%)
41. Fullerton (39.2%)
42. Orange (45.1%)
43. Thousand Oaks (42.5%)
44. Visalia (55.1%)
45. Simi Valley (49.0%)
46. Concord (27.7%)
47. Roseville (50.4%)
48. Santa Clara (20.4%)
49. Vallejo (18.5%)
50. Victorville (39.0%)
51. El Monte (17.1%)
52. Berkeley (3.2%)
53. Downey (25.2%)
54. Costa Mesa (41.6%)
55. Inglewood (5.3%)
56. Ventura (34.5%)
57. West Covina (28.3%)
58. Norwalk (21.0%)
59. Carlsbad (41.7%)
60. Fairfield (30.4%)
61. Richmond (6.7%)
62. Murrieta (58.1%)

So my money is on Visalia. Of the cities where DJT got over half the vote, Huntington Beach and Roseville are basically guaranteed flips and I doubt Visalia flips (making Murrieta #1.) Of course, this assumes Bakersfield goes for Biden in the first place.

So basically you are on the same groove vibe that if the Bakersfield Freiwall collapses we are gonna roll all the way down to # 44 Vasalia?

Despite being majority-minority Latino (48%) and only (41%) Anglo, def looks like a place where the boss and the foremen own the area that vote tend to go PUB...

Interestingly enough Health Care and Education are a huge chunk of the workforce compared to CA avg numbers...

Looks like tons of workers in the City aren't voters for various reasons?

[NOVA Green]

Alaska:

Anchorage is really trippy, since I'm not sure the exact % and Raw Votes in '16 in Anchorage (Even if we adjust for precinct splits) mainly bcs of how absentee ballots situation being wrapped into AK CD's....

Best guess I could find when I initially took a look at a few years back was 47-53 Trump in '16 as a % of two part vote, but honestly the City deserves a deeper dive, since I never totally went back and re-parsed....



If we know the "Baseline Numbers" from '16 for Anchorage, it will help inform our current assessment of the GE PRES Election in AK based upon Ntl and Statewide polling, and multiple other variables and fuel further debate and discussion...

Let's figure out the exact 2016 PRES GE numbers from Anchorage, and then start the discussion??

So I decided to go back and revisit Anchorage Alaska precinct numbers from the 2016 PRES GE from official election sources...   (Go there and you grab all of the GE State & Federal Numbers in a Text based file, which then you can convert into Excel using a Text to Columns conversion.)

https://www.elections.alaska.gov/results/16GENR/data/resultsbyprct.txt

In order to code precincts as Anchorage precincts I used the 2018 Mayoral Election results.... 

(Pull up the 2018 Regular Election of SOVC)

http://www.muni.org/Departments/Assembly/Clerk/Elections/Pages/ResultsAndHistory.aspx

(There is a chance that City precincts changed between 2014 and 2018 and added more precincts to the City, and I did not attempt to match Anchorage Mayoral results from 4/7/15 election and the 5/5/15 Mayoral runoff against 2018 Mayoral Precincts).

Also, I did not thoroughly investigate the possibility of split-precinct results, although an initial scan appeared to show TVs for '18 Mayoral closing tracking RV numbers...

After doing the text to columns command and filtering and sorting the data coding by municipality, the next step was to run the raw vote numbers by PRES by precinct...

So basically this includes all precincts within Alaskan House districts #12 > #28, with the exception of four precincts in Alaskan HD #12:

Fairview No. 1"
Fairview No. 2"
Snowshoe"
Butte"

Anchorage Alaska 2016 PRES GE "Election Day Votes"

Registered Voters (RV):     216,679

Clinton (D):        32,130      (39.3%)
Trump  (R):        39,942      (48.9%)         + 9.6% PUB
Johnson (L):        5,110       ( 6.3%)
Write-In:             2,220       ( 2.7%)
Jill Stein (G):       1,311       ( 1.6%)
Castle:   (C):          660       ( 0.8%)
"Rocky":                305       ( 0.4%)
TOTAL:               81,678                          (37.7% of RV)

Anchorage Alaska 2016 PRES GE "Absentee Ballot Votes"

Methodology here was to include all Absentee Ballots for House Districts #13 > #28, since all of the AK House District precincts fall within Anchorage 2018 Mayoral precincts:

Clinton (D):        8,209        (40.6%)
Trump  (R):        9,631        (47.6%)         + 7.0% PUB
Johnson (L):       1,292        (6.4%)
Write-In:              665         (3.3%)
Jill Stein (G):        264         (1.3%)
Castle:   (C):        121         (0.6%)
"Rocky":                65         (0.3%)
TOTAL:               20,237                          (9.3% of RV)

Now, time to combine the Anchorage Alaska "same-day" precinct results with the Alaskan House District Absentee results for HD #13-28...

Clinton (D):        40,339      (39.6%)
Trump  (R):        49,573      (48.6%)         + 9.0% PUB
Johnson (L):        6,402        (6.3%)
Write-In:             2,885        (2.8%)
Jill Stein (G):       1,575        (1.5%)
Castle:   (C):          781       ( 0.8%)
"Rocky":                370        (0.8%)
TOTAL:               101,925                          (47.0% of RV)

So what's missing??

Alaska HD #12 Absentee Ballots...

2,382 Total PRES Ballots....

PUB:   1,610    (67.6%)   
HRC:    574     (24.1%)

Let's look at the "same-day ballots" by precincts located within the city of Anchorage:

5,678 TOT within Alaska HD-12 and only 43% located within the Anchorage Municipal Boundaries.

Let's extrapolate the HD #12 Absentee ballots and say only 43% are within the City limits= 1,024 Total Votes....

Even if we say that they break down heavily PUB (HD #12 precincts same day were 530 HRC (21.9%) and 1,588 DJT (65.5%) out of 2,423 TVs) it doesn't really shift the total vote % too much further in Trump's direction...

Hypothetical AK HD #12 Absentee Split:

HRC:    224 Votes (21.9%)
DJT:     671 Votes (65.5%)

TOTAL= 1,024

So, I could go back and add these hypothetical absentee #s from HD #12 into the Total Vote (TV) for Anchorage, but even there would just be a few fractions of a % on the total margins...

Now--- if we really want to go into the weeds, I could parse Precinct 999 (Herman Cain style) for the International Absentee Ballots for Alaska (342 Total) and try to assign them to place as % of Vote, but honestly why bother?   

What does this mean for 2020??

All things considered, after re-examining the 2016 DEM PRES baseline in Anchorage, I am becoming more and more convinced that Anchorage will flip in 2020 in the event that Biden wins the National Popular Vote by somewhere in the area of +8%...

Trump only bagged 48.6% in '16 with HRC hitting 39.6%...

Meanwhile look at the 3rd Party Votes...

Write-In ballots in '16 were overwhelmingly Sanders and to a much lesser extent McMullin in places with higher % of LDS adherents...

Sure Donald Duck, Micky Mouse, and even Bozo the Clown accrue write-in votes every election in WI states but...

Johnson voters in the West (and likely elsewhere) tend to skew heavily Millennial Anglo and Trump is simply in the rear-view window, even among the Ron Paul Lbt types...

Now idea about Green Voters in Anchorage, since Alaska (Like Oregon) has had a strong an established Green Party for over 20 Years, plus Native Rights issues might have stood up stronger, even in the City, because of significant DEM Establishment support for the Keystone Pipeline and Stein was obviously on the radar as a Presidential Election Candidate willing to get arrested through non-violent civil disobedience to protect Native Rights...

*Rant Aside*, I strongly doubt that even if Trump holds onto most of his '16 voters that he will win Anchorage....

We have seen polls of Alaska showing it within potentially only a +5% Trump lead and based upon my precinct level looks at the '16 GE, Anchorage rolls to the left of the State...

Posters forecasting Fairbanks as Trump's biggest city win in Alaska are likely in a good betting odds scene within the context of historical results as well National and Statewide polling numbers...

[NOVA Green]

Starting west of the Rockies:

Alaska: Fairbanks
Arizona: Mesa
California: Huntington Beach, Simi Valley, or Murrieta
Idaho: Meridian
Hawaii: Probably nowhere
Nevada: Henderson or Carson City
Oregon: Keizer or Grants Pass
Utah: Provo
Washington: Spokane Valley or Kennewick

Not only the first reply to the OP, but also quite possibly the most accurate prediction for the State's listed.... (Although I did ask question about CA where really based upon a few recent CA PRES polls PUBs could be wiped out even in unexpected places)...

[NOVA Green]

I believe Trump won Clarksville, TN in 2016, and I suspect he will do it again.  Trends from the 2020 Congressional primaries looked pretty favorable in Montgomery County.  If Biden wins Clarksville, he'll probably also be winning Knoxville and Murfreesboro, which would leave Franklin as the largest city in Tennessee to vote for Trump.

Hello Friend--- long time no chat!

You ran the precinct numbers from Clarksville a few years back on another thread on the 2016 GE results and placed it as 49.4% Trump and 44.4% HRC...

So curious about your thoughts on Clarksville since if Biden ends up winning nationally by +6-8% at min it looks like the type of joint which should flip.

Why do you suspect Trump will hold Clarksville in 2020?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=272471.msg5832944#msg5832944

[NOVA Green]

So for anyone interested... here is a summary of Atlas contributions regarding the largest City by State which Trump won in ;16...

I took the various % numbers from 2016, recognizing that in some places order of POP might shift and all that... to make it easier to research

[NOVA Green]

Washington State:

I believe #11 Spokane Valley would be the correct answer.

Here is how Cities in Washington State voted in 2016:



I would be surprised if #10 Yakima does not flip in 2020, considering that Trump was not only under 50%, but also a large number of 3rd Party votes in 2016.

There is little reason to suspect that Spokane Valley would resemble the type of place to overcome 1 +16.8% Trump win in 2016...

[NOVA Green]

Spokane is difficult to pin down as we don’t have city wide voting data but the county did vote for Trump by like 9 points in 2016 so I could see Spokane supporting Trump.

Well to be fair we do have access to precinct results by precinct for various elections which if one downloads the package and unzips the file can select precinct level data for all of Washington State...

https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/election-results-and-voters-pamphlets.aspx

Select your election then roll over and click on the "data file" and it will start the WinZip download...

Doesn't look like you can grab the '08 precinct data-set from there, but looks like at least the '12 and '16 precinct results are there...

I believe I have '08 precinct results floating around somewhere, as well as a '00 precinct data-set for Washington State and possibly nationally, but I digress...

Either way... hardest part with this type of gig is doing precinct coding if it is not evident to match precincts against municipal boundaries....

Fortunately places like Spokane don't trip around too much with lines, even after redistricting, so coding County Precincts that don't have maps that clearly delineated is more of a question of matching Mayoral and Municipal results to identify precincts within city limits (split-precincts are MUCH more of a Pain-in-the-arse to deal with, but not a major deal here).

[NOVA Green]

Jefferson City is pretty R. So probably that (though Galloway won it in 2018, so...)

You don't think Springfield will vote for Trump again?

Jeff City is the smallest "nearly-certain R." I think Springfield is a coin flip this year, with maybe a slight lean toward Trump. Galloway has a good chance of winning it - the question is if Biden will. The results of the Medicaid referendum are encouraging.

Do you have a good break on Springfield '16 PRES Election numbers?

I believe I ran into a bit of a brink wall with Absentee voting numbers, Write-In Ballots, etc when I looked at the data a couple years back from Springfield '16...

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=272471.msg5818175#msg5818175

Might be interesting to parse precinct results from Springfield over a few election cycles, since looks extremely unlikely to flip, but without some comparative baseline true raw vote numbers, makes it extremely difficult to get a handle on...

Not that I believe Springfield, MO will flip Biden in '20, let alone MO, but certainly a fruitful line of inquiry....  You seem to have a local handle on the subject, so curious about your take on matters...

[NOVA Green]

IDAHO:

1.) Boise was something like 52-34% HRC in '16, so can obviously be ruled out (Unless somehow folks think there will a massive swing towards Trump in '20 Boise?

2.) Nampa... (Canyon County).... I played around with the numbers back in '17 as a side project, but unless it is saved on an external Hard Drive, I was not easily able to access...

Still, looking the numbers again, even if we ignore the obvious split-precincts assuming 11/3/15 Mayoral results represented 2016 GE PRES boundaries:

Trump:   21,822        (62.6%)
HRC:       8,615         (24.7%)
McMullin: 2,108         ( 6.0%)
Johnson:  1,468         (4,2%)
Stein:         432          (1.2%)
Castle:        202
Misc:           206

TOTAL:   34,853

Even if these results exclude write-in ballots for Sanders, I am having a difficult time conceptualizing Nampa flipping in 2020...

3.) Meridian--- the population now exceeds that of Nampa   (As opposed to the '16 GE largest State, so definitely worthy of further inquiry, which Blairite first posited based upon the current 2nd largest City in Idaho....

Edit: So attempted to run Meridian precinct results using '15 and '19 Mayoral Election numbers numbers...

So after subtracting the obvious split-precinct might be something close to the following in '16:

TRUMP:        25,178     (56.9%)
HRC:            11,583     (26.2%)
McMullin:       3,218      ( 7.3%)
Johnson:        2,083      (4.7%)
Stein:              429       (1.0%)

TOTAL:        44,223

[NOVA Green]

Utah:

#1 Salt Lake City--- Clearly Biden. (66% Clinton- 11% Trump, 11% McMullin)

#2 West Valley City--- ??     

2016:

Clinton:        14,031      (41.3%)
Trump:         10,811      (31.9%)
McMullin:       6,314      (18.6%)
Johnson:       1,455       ( 4.3%)
TOTAL:         33,938

My question here is what happens to all of these McMullin voters (and to a lesser extent some of the Johnson voters) in 2016?

If the vast majority of McMullin voters go Trump in 2020 even if Biden gets the edge on some of the Johnson voters, it looks like a potential HRC > Trump flip.

Anybody else want to chime in on West Valley in 2020?

*If* not West Valley, since it appears that Provo still holds a narrow edge over West Jordan in Total Population, then Provo would be the obvious choice for Trump's largest town in UT:

#3 Provo:

2016:

Clinton:      6,277       (19.2%)
Trump:       12,860     (39.4%)
McMullin:    11,419     (35.0%)
Johnson:      1,165     ( 3.6%)
TOTAL:        32,670

Now I guess one could try to make an argument that College Town and McMullin '16 voters might break heavily Biden in 2020, but we don't really have any evidence of a "McMullin > Biden" surge in Utah at this point (albeit with sparse polling out of the State).
     

[NOVA Green]

Alright, so I'm setting up this post to create a compiled list once and for all of our predictions and will fill it in as this thread progresses:

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona: Mesa (#3)
Arkansas: Fort Smith (#2)
California: Bakersfield (#9) or Visalia (#44)
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Georgia: Warner Robins (#10)
Hawaii: n/a
Idaho: Meridian (#2)
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey: Lakewood (#5)
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania: Altoona (#15)
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas: Lubbock (#11)
Utah: Provo (#3)
Vermont
Virginia
Washington: Spokane Valley (#11)
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

I like what you're doing here, and after all we all like lists!

I've been trying to post by individual state to make for easier reference points...

One thought with this list, might be able to add in categories such as '16>'20 Flip, Tossup, Tilt, Lean, & Safe...

So for example with Alabama, I would code Huntsville as a likely flip for Biden since HRC only lost by 1% in '16, demographics seem like a good fit for an increased DEM performance, plus the current national polling environment.

Hoover, Alabama:  On surface looks like a Safe Trump (+20% in '16), although demographics and the +20% Doug Jones win there, might cause some to call it a Lean Trump (~+10%) in '20.

Alaska: I might call Anchorage a Tossup (# Trump under 50% in '16, high number of 3rd Party Voters in '16, "ornery Alaska", what limited State polling we have for 2020, but others might call it Tilt Biden or Tilt Trump. Regardless #2 Fairbanks would be Safe Trump.

Arizona: #3 Mesa looks like a Safe Trump (+10%) in '20, but some might prefer to move it into the Lean Trump category (+6-10%) because of AZ statewide polling, National polling, and shifts within Metro Phoenix.

Arkansas: #2 Fort Smith--- Looks like a Safe Trump '20, although I did find the demographics more interesting than expected.

California: #9 Bakersfield--- I might call it a Tossup, others might code it as Tilt Trump or Tilt Biden, based upon demographic changes (Growing Latino electorate), gradual DEM PRES % gains, etc...

Colorado: #2 Colorado Springs--- Probably a Safe Trump (+10%), although again some might point to National or Colorado polling and put it in the Likely Trump category.

Idaho: #2 Meridian-  This would obviously be Safe Trump.

Without going down the entire list, since there are still quite a few blanks, and places to be explored in further detail, my thought is that this might help us shift our opinions as additional State & National polling comes out as we start to move closer to the endgame of the 2020 GE PRES Election....

[NOVA Green]

Utah:

#1 Salt Lake City--- Clearly Biden. (66% Clinton- 11% Trump, 11% McMullin)

#2 West Valley City--- ??     

2016:

Clinton:        14,031      (41.3%)
Trump:         10,811      (31.9%)
McMullin:       6,314      (18.6%)
Johnson:       1,455       ( 4.3%)
TOTAL:         33,938

My question here is what happens to all of these McMullin voters (and to a lesser extent some of the Johnson voters) in 2016?

If the vast majority of McMullin voters go Trump in 2020 even if Biden gets the edge on some of the Johnson voters, it looks like a potential HRC > Trump flip.

Anybody else want to chime in on West Valley in 2020?

I feel pretty good about West Valley City going for Biden. To start off with, it seems pretty likely Biden is going to win the overwhelming majority of Johnson voters. A lot of Dem gains in 2018 were basically Clinton '16+Johnson+Stein and those voters will presumably vote Biden and don't have strong LDS ties considering that they'd vote for McMullin instead. Which is to say I think Biden has a 45% floor in West Valley City. Assuming he gets just 20% of McMullin voters (reasonable, IMO), that should be enough for him to win with a plurality of the vote. I think Provo is the clear choice.

You raise some good points regarding West Valley City overall... as well as the 2018 elections.

Although only some precincts fall within UT CD-04 we see something like:

McAdams (D):     8,690     (62.4%)
Love   (R):          5,171     (37.1%)
TOTAL:               13,927   

These same precincts went:

Clinton:     7,659     (43.7%)
Trump:      5,513     (31.4%)
McMullin:   2,890    (16.5%)
Johnson:      764     ( 4.4%)
TOTAL:      17,545

So.... based upon that, Biden's chances look good here in 2020.
       

[NOVA Green]

OREGON:

So as I have posted on other threads the seven largest Cities in Oregon (Portland, Salem, Eugene, Gresham, Hillsboro, Beaverton and Bend, all voted for Clinton in '16 by convincing margins, and there is no empirical evidence to suggest that 2020 will be any different.

Without going into extensive detail here are how the Top 24 Cities in OR by POP in 2016 voted in the PRES GE (As I posted on my OR PRES GE thread):

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.125

1.) Portland- 594.7k---- 2016: (78-13 D); 2012: (79-16 D)         +2% Dem Swing
2.) Eugene-  157.3k---  2016: (66-23 D); 2012: (69-26 D)         +0% Swing
3.) Salem-    156.9k---  2016: (50-39 D); 2012: (54-42 D)         +1% Rep Swing
4.) Gresham- 107.2k--- 2016: (49-39 D); 2012: (55-42 D)         +3% Rep Swing
5.) Hillsboro-  107.2k--- 2016: (55-32 D); 2012: (56-39 D)        +6% Dem Swing
6.) Beaverton- 91.4k----2016: (63-25 D)2012: (62-34 D)           +10% Dem Swing
7.) Bend----     87.1k--- 2016: (52-36 D); 2012: (53-44 D)         +7 % Dem Swing
8.) Medford--   75.9k--- 2016: (39-51 R); 2012: (43-54 R)          +1% Rep Swing
9.) Springfield--59.7k--  2016: (47-40 D); 2012: (55-39 D)         +9% Rep Swing
10.) Corvallis-- 54.7k--  2016: (70-18 D); 2012: (69-25 D)        +8 % Dem Swin
11.) Albany---- 50.8k-- 2016:  (40-47 R); 2012: (46-49 R)         +4% Rep Swing
12.) Tigard---   49.0k-- 2016: (58-30 D); 2012: (56-40 D)          +12% Dem Swing   
13.) Lake Oswego- 37.0k- 2016: (63-26 D); 2012: (57-41 D)     +20% Dem Swing
14.) Keizer---   36.7k---   2016: (39-49 R); 2012: (45-53 R)       +2% Rep Swing
15.) Grants Pass-- 34.5k- 2016: (32-58 R); 2012: (39-57 R)      +8 % Rep Swing
16.) McMinville-- 32.2k--- 2016: (47-42 D); 2012: (51-46 D)      +0% Swing
17.) Oregon City- 33.1k-  2016: (45-42 D); 2012: (51-46 D)      +2% Rep Swing
18.) Redmond-- 26.2k--  2016: (31-58 R); 2012: (37-59 R)       +5% Rep Swing
19.) Tualatin-- 26.4k--    2016: (53-34 D); 2012: (51-46 D)      +14% Dem Swing
20.) West Linn- 25.5k-- 2016: (60-29 D); 2012: (55-44 D)         +20% Dem Swing
21.) Woodburn--- 24.1k-- 2016: (51-40 D);  2012: (52-45 D)       +4% Dem Swing
22.) Newberg--- 22.1k--- 2016: (40-45 R); 2012: (43-53 R)         +5% Dem Swing
23.) Roseburg-- 21.2k--- 2016: (34-55 R); 2012: (41-55 R)          +7% Rep Swing
24.) Forest Grove-- 21.6k-- 2016: (47-39 D); 2012: (53-41 D)     +4% Rep Swing

Without going into extensive detail at this point about any of these cities, and regurgitating previous posts from another thread, one of my observations was that in many cases, even places which swung Republican between '12 and '16 did so more because of a significant defection among Obama '12 Democrats towards 3rd Party Candidates (Write-In / Sanders, Stein, and Johnson).

#8 Medford:  (Pop 83k as of 7/1/19 vs 80k as of '16).

So I'll start with just linking to a post I made on 1/21/17 regarding Medford. Honestly not my best in terms of graphs and visuals, etc... but I was trying to crunch data quickly for multiple counties in OR but with a level of detail, well before any precinct maps were being published...

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5483203#msg5483203

So... brief peak at Medford:

1.) Fortunately I have a comprehensive data-set of OR election results by precinct for 1992.

2.) I believe I have a mostly complete precinct data for 1988, excepting perhaps a handful of small rural counties in Oregon.

3.) For some strange reason 1996 GE PRES precinct results are some of the rarest elements of Precinct Level Collections... and Oregon is no exception.

Medford-- 1992 to 2016 US PRES RAW GE Vote



Let's look at the same data-set as a % of support by Party for GE Candidates...



Honestly not quite ready yet to call Medford a 2020 Biden "Flip" (Although honestly it's really starting to look that way, especially within a Ntl GE Environment where Biden is likely leading somewhere between 6-8% and quite possibly even more so...

Obama only lost Medford by 5.5% in '08 and raw Total Votes are jacking up as the POP increases and people become of voting age...

Really need to think harder about Medford, since not only been disappointed many times in the past, but also if Medford flips that will indicate that Jackson County is flipping hard DEM, unless some weird stuff in Eagle Creek & Central Point essentially acts as the "inelastic" part of Jackson County....

[NOVA Green]

OREGON:

So as I have posted on other threads the seven largest Cities in Oregon (Portland, Salem, Eugene, Gresham, Hillsboro, Beaverton and Bend, all voted for Clinton in '16 by convincing margins, and there is no empirical evidence to suggest that 2020 will be any different.

Without going into extensive detail here are how the Top 24 Cities in OR by POP in 2016 voted in the PRES GE (As I posted on my OR PRES GE thread):

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.125

1.) Portland- 594.7k---- 2016: (78-13 D); 2012: (79-16 D)         +2% Dem Swing
2.) Eugene-  157.3k---  2016: (66-23 D); 2012: (69-26 D)         +0% Swing
3.) Salem-    156.9k---  2016: (50-39 D); 2012: (54-42 D)         +1% Rep Swing
4.) Gresham- 107.2k--- 2016: (49-39 D); 2012: (55-42 D)         +3% Rep Swing
5.) Hillsboro-  107.2k--- 2016: (55-32 D); 2012: (56-39 D)        +6% Dem Swing
6.) Beaverton- 91.4k----2016: (63-25 D)2012: (62-34 D)           +10% Dem Swing
7.) Bend----     87.1k--- 2016: (52-36 D); 2012: (53-44 D)         +7 % Dem Swing
8.) Medford--   75.9k--- 2016: (39-51 R); 2012: (43-54 R)          +1% Rep Swing
9.) Springfield--59.7k--  2016: (47-40 D); 2012: (55-39 D)         +9% Rep Swing
10.) Corvallis-- 54.7k--  2016: (70-18 D); 2012: (69-25 D)        +8 % Dem Swin
11.) Albany---- 50.8k-- 2016:  (40-47 R); 2012: (46-49 R)         +4% Rep Swing
12.) Tigard---   49.0k-- 2016: (58-30 D); 2012: (56-40 D)          +12% Dem Swing   
13.) Lake Oswego- 37.0k- 2016: (63-26 D); 2012: (57-41 D)     +20% Dem Swing
14.) Keizer---   36.7k---   2016: (39-49 R); 2012: (45-53 R)       +2% Rep Swing
15.) Grants Pass-- 34.5k- 2016: (32-58 R); 2012: (39-57 R)      +8 % Rep Swing
16.) McMinville-- 32.2k--- 2016: (47-42 D); 2012: (51-46 D)      +0% Swing
17.) Oregon City- 33.1k-  2016: (45-42 D); 2012: (51-46 D)      +2% Rep Swing
18.) Redmond-- 26.2k--  2016: (31-58 R); 2012: (37-59 R)       +5% Rep Swing
19.) Tualatin-- 26.4k--    2016: (53-34 D); 2012: (51-46 D)      +14% Dem Swing
20.) West Linn- 25.5k-- 2016: (60-29 D); 2012: (55-44 D)         +20% Dem Swing
21.) Woodburn--- 24.1k-- 2016: (51-40 D);  2012: (52-45 D)       +4% Dem Swing
22.) Newberg--- 22.1k--- 2016: (40-45 R); 2012: (43-53 R)         +5% Dem Swing
23.) Roseburg-- 21.2k--- 2016: (34-55 R); 2012: (41-55 R)          +7% Rep Swing
24.) Forest Grove-- 21.6k-- 2016: (47-39 D); 2012: (53-41 D)     +4% Rep Swing

Without going into extensive detail at this point about any of these cities, and regurgitating previous posts from another thread, one of my observations was that in many cases, even places which swung Republican between '12 and '16 did so more because of a significant defection among Obama '12 Democrats towards 3rd Party Candidates (Write-In / Sanders, Stein, and Johnson).

#8 Medford:  (Pop 83k as of 7/1/19 vs 80k as of '16).

So I'll start with just linking to a post I made on 1/21/17 regarding Medford. Honestly not my best in terms of graphs and visuals, etc... but I was trying to crunch data quickly for multiple counties in OR but with a level of detail, well before any precinct maps were being published...

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5483203#msg5483203

So... brief peak at Medford:

1.) Fortunately I have a comprehensive data-set of OR election results by precinct for 1992.

2.) I believe I have a mostly complete precinct data for 1988, excepting perhaps a handful of small rural counties in Oregon.

3.) For some strange reason 1996 GE PRES precinct results are some of the rarest elements of Precinct Level Collections... and Oregon is no exception.

Honestly not quite ready yet to call Medford a 2020 Biden "Flip" (Although honestly it's really starting to look that way, especially within a Ntl GE Environment where Biden is likely leading somewhere between 6-8% and quite possibly even more so...

Obama only lost Medford by 5.5% in '08 and raw Total Votes are jacking up as the POP increases and people become of voting age...

Really need to think harder about Medford, since not only been disappointed many times in the past, but also if Medford flips that will indicate that Jackson County is flipping hard DEM, unless some weird stuff in Eagle Creek & Central Point essentially acts as the "inelastic" part of Jackson County....

So I figured I would take a look and consolidate precinct results from Medford for some other recent elections to see if it is informative of changes within the City and potential for a Biden '20 flip from a Trump '16 City...

First let's review the PRES GE numbers from '92 to '16 (Still missing Jackson County OR '96 from my collection--- please PM me if you have it in your collection)....

Medford--- PRES GE Raw Votes by Party '92 > '16




Medford--- PRES GE Raw % by Party '92> '16




1.) Looking at Medford '92 > 04 Total GE PRES Votes indicates how heavily the City was transforming away from Timber and increasingly towards Medical Sector jobs, while simultaneously a significant number of both internal (Oregon) and External (Likely heavily Californian) migrants to the City, combined with obviously locals becoming of voting age, and minus some of our beloved relatives passing on...

2.) The 2008 PRES Election numbers should definitely give serious pause to Jackson County Republicans, as well as the potential that current CD-02 could well flip in the 2020s if Jackson and Deschutes County start moving harder DEM within the fastest growing counties....

3.) Trump '16 having the worst % performance as a Republican in Medford since likely 1984....

Still to be fair Democratic Party PRES % in Medford has dropped 7.7% since '08, and Trump-Pence did a Mega-rally in Medford to dig the final nail into the coffin of Kasich, the last man standing against Trumpism within the Party.

4.) 2016 Medford--- 3rd Party GE PRES Votes:

Libertarian---      1,744      (4.8%) 
Write-In---          1,403      (3.8%)
Pacific Green--       866      (2.4%)

    A.) Vast majority of Write-In ballots are likely Sanders Ballots.... McMullin  would likely get the change.... Obviously you might also have a small number of "Romney", "Colin Powell" votes, as well as your usual votes for candidates such as "Donald Duck", "Micky Mouse" and "Bozo the Clown"....

Let's say hypothetically Biden gets an additional (840) votes or basically 60% of the GE PRES '16 Write-Ins from Medford.

Okay--- be a bit generous to Trump, let's says he gets 30% of the Write-Ins:

Biden---   (840)
Trump---  (421)

    B.) Extremely doubtful that Greens will be able to come close to their 2.4% in Medford in '20 so a reasonable assumption would be that Biden-Harris likely grabs another (500) votes.

     Biden:  (433 Votes)
     Trump: (50   Votes)


C.) Not totally sure how to parse out the Gary Johnson / Libertarian votes in Medford.

My assumption would be that this voting block would heavily consist of Gen-Exers and Younger, with a smaller fraction of voters 46+....

Still, I would imagine that in 2020 GE PRES the Johnson '16 flip to DEM/PUB voters would likely benefit Biden more so than Trump...

So, let's say the Libertarian '20 vote in Medford is only 40% of their (1,744) '16 numbers, leaves about 1,050 Libertarian votes to be redistributed...

Hypothetically let's say they break 60-40 Biden...

Biden:     (630)
Trump:    (420)

So... what is the purpose of the exercise?

1.) Let's say numbers were fixed in time from '16 for DEM /PUB PRES voters and 3rd Party votes are redistributed...  (I suspect these numbers are likely generous to Trump)

Biden:    + 1,903 Votes
Trump:   +    891 Votes

2.) So at a minimum Biden shaves off at least +1k votes off of Trump '16 margins, and quite possibly even +2k votes, simply from 3rd Party decrease vote share in 2020 in Medford...

3.) Naturally this doesn't include any impacts from newer voters (Natural coming of age locals, internal and external migrants to Medford, and unfortunately people dying).

4.) This certainly does not include random items such as swing from Obama '08 > Romney '12 > Trump '16 voters or any combination thereof.

Do we have any evidence in other elections that Medford has been shifting hard in the Democratic Party to evidence a flip within the City?

I decided to pull up some precinct numbers for Medford from other recent elections:

OR-GOV 2014 and 2018:



1.) Interestingly enough Kate Brown in '16 is out-performing HRC by some (700) Dem Votes in '16 and Trump is roughly (260) votes behind Buehler.

2.) Typically OR-GOV candidates significantly under-perform in downstate OR vs PRES candidates so although '18 might not look like a great year for Kate Brown in Medford, it appears most likely possible that DEM vote drop-off between '16 and '18 was more significant in the OR-GOV race than "flip voters"...

3.) There's an old saying that: "A Bird in the hand is worth two in the Bush". So basically in terms of election results, it means that every voter who flips is worth "two votes".

https://www.gingersoftware.com/content/phrases/a-bird-in-the-hand-is-worth-two-in-the-bush/

OR-Medford- CD '02- 2012 to 2018



1.) Medford has consistently voted for Greg Walden, although the '18 numbers demonstrate how increasingly he was tied to the Trump brand and how not only did his numbers crater, but additionally how effective Jamie McLeod-Skinner was at making the CD-02 election "competitive" in '18.

What about Medford for US-SEN in '14 and '16?



1.) So we see both Merkley and Wyden winning Medford by a plurality of the vote.

2.) Merkley obviously performed much worse than Wyden '16, still it was '14 off-year election and the Greens still bagged (450) votes in Medford, Libertarians got (940) Votes, and the Consitutionalists roll in at (488) votes.

3.) Wyden '16 won Medford by a solid 45-38, despite a massive defection to the Left:

Working Family Party:    (920 Votes)---   (2.6%)
Pacific Green Party:       (775 Votes)---    (2.2%)

What about the 2018 Oregon State Senate District # 3 which flipped after the retirement of a 'Pub Incumbent?

Medford Oregon 2018 SSD 3:

Golden (D):  14,011      (43.3%)
Gomez (R):   18,271     (56.5%)
TOTAL:          32,326 

So stretching my brain, assuming 3rd Party Votes are maybe only about 5% of PRES Votes in 2020...

Biden should easily match an exceed Obama '08 numbers and % of the Vote...

1.) Still will Biden be able to crack 47% or more the vote in order to flip the City in 2020?

2.) In 2018, Dems only won precincts #15 and #19 for US REP, with Precinct #19 being a literal tie between Buehler & Brown for OR-GOV...

Although National Polling Numbers (Biden +8-10%) might well indicate a landslide, I have yet to see a convincing argument as to why Medford will flip in '20, despite some % margin increases in the more Upper-Income and Educated Eastside in '16.

I can certainly imagine a flip, especially if Biden is able to replicate some of his numbers elsewhere with Anglo Seniors, but at this point am still on the fence with Medford when it comes to a Biden '20 Flip...

Thoughts Atlas?

[NOVA Green]

I think Medford is lean Trump from your data, but nothing better. It's been growing fast and I think third party '16 voters will break for Biden by even bigger margins then you currently have them doing. Moreover, I think Jackson County might be lean Biden at this point considering its growth and Trump getting under 50% of the vote in 2016.

I think both Albany and Keizer flip before Medford, which means that if it does flip then the biggest OR city for Biden is Grants Pass (#15).

Agreed with you on both Albany (Which we have discussed elsewhere) & Keizer (Although I'll need to take a closer look at the latter), and Grants Pass is logically Republican in virtually any scenario and votes to the Right of Josephine County as a whole...

BTW: Believe you have a typo above and meant Trump instead of Biden.   

Still--- with Trump only winning 50.6% of the vote in '16 AND with a relatively fast-growing population AND considering current national polling numbers, I'm still not considering Medford more than a Tilt / Lean Trump and even willing to entertain it as a potential Toss-Up territory.

So--- all that being said I thought it might be interesting to go back and look at the precinct level results from '04 to '16 to see what the data shows.

To start with here is the precinct map for Medford, which is the same from '08 > '16 (Actually I believe the precinct boundaries were the same in '04 with the exception of precinct #47 being carved out from precinct #50 in '08).



Without starting with commentary let's look at the precinct maps from 2004 to 2016:









1.) 2004 we observe how dominant historically Republican Presidential Candidates have been even in relatively recent elections.

Kerry only narrowly won one precinct (Precinct # 58) in Downtown / West Medford, narrowly lost another in East Medford (Precinct # 48), lost another precinct in West Medford by 7% (Precinct #60) and pretty much got slaughtered everywhere else by major double-digits and even lost (3) precincts by 2:1 in NE Medford (Precincts # 40, 42, and 46).

2.) 2008 we see a tale of two cities.... Obama rolling in with a DEM record in Medford (Likely the highest % for a DEM here since '64).... although '88 and '76 might be interesting to look at but am currently too lazy to find the bin with '88 OR GE PRES precinct results for every county, and I don't have access to '76 results without driving a few hours to the county courthouse or an hour North to Salem in the era of COVID and trying to access documents from the archives...

3.) Obama '08 would likely be the logical building block for a '20 DEM Medford flip...

As Blairite has posited, some of the biggest GE PRES swings in OR in 2020 might well come from "Upscale Downstate Oregon"...

4.) Let's look at the '04 to '08 PRES Swing by Precinct to see how dramatic it was in taking a reliability overwhelmingly Republican Downstate OR City and essentially turning it into a "Tilt/Lean Trump City in '20 from a conservative estimation...



5.) 2008 we see how impressive Obama performed, winning 4/14 precincts, including 3/4 in SW Medford, plus precinct # 48 at +12%, keeping PUB margins down to mid-single digits with 5/14 precincts including North Medford and two precincts in SE Medford.

6.) 2012 Republicans regain some ground in Medford with Romney running against Obama...

Still how does the '08 to '12 Swings look like by precinct?



A.) Overall Obama in '12 is still rolling at 43% vs 53% Romney with overall relatively surprisingly small swings in most precincts...

Obama appears to have been part of a total adjust pattern in Medford with even '12 numbers looking pretty good for the PRES within the City...

B.) I should also mention that TOT US PRES votes in Medford dropped about 1k from '08 to '12 (Likely hitting Obama harder than Romney)

7.) Now time to look at Medford 2016 as a % change of Republican support by Precinct from '12 to '16 to gauge the Trumpista influence that might endure in 2020:



8.) Overall these numbers from '16 in Medford might look good for Republicans in theory looking at Medford West of I-5, but starts to become much more problematic with significant collapse of Republican support in precincts East of I-5.

9.) Let's take a brief look at % of Latinos by Block Group Maps in Medford?



10.) West of I-5 we see major Latino populations, likely somewhere around 20%+ of the Population as of '18...

11.) East of I-5, we also observe significant concentrations within the Census Block Group Maps on the few exits if you are driving North on the 5... Latino POP running roughly 20% in these joints...

12.) We also have a few Census Block Groups such as Block Group 000602-1 (28% Latino on the Eastside)

https://statisticalatlas.com/block-group/Oregon/Jackson-County/000602-1/Race-and-Ethnicity

13.) What about the overwhelmingly Anglo parts of Medford?

Here is a Census Block Group map from around 2018....




14.) Hmm... weird. We see Trump support collapse in the most Anglo precincts in Medford, but improving in the most Latino precincts in Medford in 2016?

When I lived in Tejas, Obama was frequently referred to as the "Deporter in Chief" among both me and wide's Mexican-American friends in Houston, where even the Husband of my wife's co-worker got deported for a DUI, after something like (20) Years being married to an American Citizen, with three kids together all because his "paperwork was out of status".

I strongly suspect much of the drop-off in '16 DEM numbers in heavily Latino Precincts of Medford was directly caused by Obama Post '12 decisions.... although I strongly doubt that Biden will take the hit despite being VP under Obama, and Kamala might be able to help explain the "immigrant experience" in a way that perhaps only Sanders might have been able to do...

14.) Educational Attainment by Census Block Tract circa '16



15.) Look at Population 60-69 by Census Block Tract in Medford.



Medford exhibits characteristics of a City which might well flip in 2020:

   A.) Significantly lower Latino Turnout in '16 PRES.
   B.) Significantly lower performance among Anglos supporting PUB PRES in East Medford.
   C.) Significantly lower support among College Educated Anglos (East Medford)
   D.) If Biden Anglo Senior Ntl Vote % are to be believed, which is not inconceivable in the COVID-19
        era, it would not be surprising to see Biden perform significantly better than even Obama '08  in
        that Demographic in Medford come 2020

[NOVA Green]

Montana:

#1 Billings: Should be the obvious answer, but in the era where Trump might end up losing the PV by 8-10% essentially makes it a bit of an odds bet...

Still, gets a bit tricky once we roll into the Zone...

Tried to roll the precinct numbers from '16 and came out something like this in terms of raw vote:



Yellowstone County changed precinct lines in 2013, so although possible haven't attempted to run '08 or '12 compare and contrast numbers, still trying to roll the '16 precinct numbers by %:



For anyone looking at the Write-In numbers, they appear to be overwhelmingly Sanders with McMullin accounting for a relatively small chunk of the WI vote-share county wide.

Trump at only 51.3% in '16 in Billings MT, makes Cheyenne WY look like an extreme-right stronghold...

Not predicting a Biden '20 flip even in a +10% Ntl Biden win, but it certainly moves us into that "down-ballot bump" for MT-SEN and MT-GOV in a quirky State...

3rd Party Votes in Billings MT in '16 are likely overwhelmingly DEM voters in '20....

Not an expert on MT, but figured I would toss at least the '16 GE PRES numbers out there, since unfortunately not able to easily run a compare/contrast (Although certainly there are items out there which would likely be able to present the data, but recently got off work, so not really invested the time on this item yet).

[NOVA Green]

Montana:

#1 Billings: Should be the obvious answer, but in the era where Trump might end up losing the PV by 8-10% essentially makes it a bit of an odds bet...

Still, gets a bit tricky once we roll into the Zone...

Tried to roll the precinct numbers from '16 and came out something like this in terms of raw vote:



Yellowstone County changed precinct lines in 2013, so although possible haven't attempted to run '08 or '12 compare and contrast numbers, still trying to roll the '16 precinct numbers by %:



For anyone looking at the Write-In numbers, they appear to be overwhelmingly Sanders with McMullin accounting for a relatively small chunk of the WI vote-share county wide.

Trump at only 51.3% in '16 in Billings MT, makes Cheyenne WY look like an extreme-right stronghold...

Not predicting a Biden '20 flip even in a +10% Ntl Biden win, but it certainly moves us into that "down-ballot bump" for MT-SEN and MT-GOV in a quirky State...

3rd Party Votes in Billings MT in '16 are likely overwhelmingly DEM voters in '20....

Not an expert on MT, but figured I would toss at least the '16 GE PRES numbers out there, since unfortunately not able to easily run a compare/contrast (Although certainly there are items out there which would likely be able to present the data, but recently got off work, so not really invested the time on this item yet).

So--- I decided to rerun a few numbers from 2016 PRES, even after adding in the Write-In Vote raw numbers and % to attempt to match against current precinct boundaries posted on the Yellowstone County website.

https://maps.co.yellowstone.mt.gov/mapping/index.html



It appears that either my 2017 report on Billings confirmed precinct vote was either "fake news", or maybe a few precincts shifted around and split precincts muddied the waters a few % points on the margins...

Naturally we need to re-examine the actual precinct level results from Billings, Montana in 2016 and include a mixture of clear precincts within the City Limits vs the split-precincts...



If we aggregate both the Split and Non-Splits we get something like 70% of the Yellowstone County Vote Share.

Now what does the % of the Vote look line in Billings by Split Precinct / Non-Split Precinct and Total?



So parsing the Split-Precincts could easily become an exercise looking pop density and census tracts to try to create a % modelling and estimated distribution of City Nov '16 vs present maps etc...

Still, the overall assumption is that even with split-precincts that voters outside of Billings City Limits would generally tend to be more Republican (based upon '16 County Precinct numbers), so at a maximum Trump won Billings [(53.6% (R) vs 35.2% (D)] and at minimum Trump won Billings [51.4% (R) vs 37.1% (D).

Okay-- so billings split combined with non-split Billings precincts had some 49k GE PRES voters in '16...

I tried to run the numbers from the 2008 GE PRES Precincts based upon the next Mayoral Election:

https://www.co.yellowstone.mt.gov/elections/results/Archives/Precinct_Nov2009.htm

2008 GE "Billings '09 Mayoral Precincts"   (Haven't run a % of '08 vs '09 precincts yet or done Excel db style power queries---)



Okay--- did that blow your eyeballs out trying to read the skinny font?

So basically--- we got a ton of precincts in Billings in '08 that went:

Obama '08:   25,540 Votes (47.2%)
McCain '08:   27,119 Votes (50.2%%)
TOTAL '08:    54,066

Billings, Montana will be an interesting case-study...

O'bama almost won it in '08, and currently Biden is out-performing in Ntl Polls vs Obama '08 % numbers...

Atlas Hive or Independent Thoughts???

[NOVA Green]

Nevada:

Assuming #1 Las Vegas doesn't flip in 2020---   

#2 Henderson was won by Trump in '16, but not by insane margins...

Let's look at the Raw Votes in Henderson from '08 to '18 for US PRES and US SEN:



Convert to % numbers:



Look at the demographics:

Race/Ethnicity:

Anglo: 69.0%
Latino: 13.4%
Black:   5.7%
Asian:   7.9%
Mixed:  3.0%
Other:   1.0%

AGE:

Skews heavily older...

70+:    9.8%
60-69:  12.4%
50-59:   14.0%
40-49:   15.3%
30-39:   13.0%
22-29:    9.1%
18-21:    4.3%
Under 17: 22.1%

Household Income: $ 64.5k / Yr   (Pretty high for an aging City)

Occupations:



Educational Attainment:



How likely is Henderson to flip in 2020?