States’ largest cities that will vote for Trump. (user search)
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  States’ largest cities that will vote for Trump. (search mode)
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Author Topic: States’ largest cities that will vote for Trump.  (Read 11527 times)
Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,853
United States


« on: August 06, 2020, 02:38:35 AM »
« edited: August 06, 2020, 10:24:01 AM by Blairite »

Starting west of the Rockies:

Alaska: Fairbanks
Arizona: Mesa
California: Huntington Beach, Simi Valley, or Murrieta
Idaho: Meridian
Hawaii: Probably nowhere
Nevada: Henderson or Carson City
Oregon: Keizer or Grants Pass
Utah: Provo
Washington: Spokane Valley or Kennewick


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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,853
United States


« Reply #1 on: August 06, 2020, 10:23:39 AM »

Starting west of the Rockies:

Alaska: Fairbanks
Arizona: Mesa
California: Huntington Beach, Simi Valley, or Murrieta
Idaho: Meridian
Hawaii: Probably nowhere
Nevada: Henderson or Carson City
Oregon: Keizer or Grants Pass
Washington: Spokane Valley or Kennewick



Uh Medford in Oregon?

I think Medford and Albany are both going to flip. Same with Marion, Jackson, Yamhill, Polk, and Deschutes counties.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,853
United States


« Reply #2 on: August 06, 2020, 10:34:52 AM »

Illinois: Decatur
Maryland: Salisbury or Cumberland
New Jersey: Lakewood
New York: Utica
Pennsylvania: Altoona
Tennessee: Murfreesboro
Texas: Probably Plano, if not then definitely Lubbock


Plano voted for HRC, so definately not.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,853
United States


« Reply #3 on: August 06, 2020, 11:03:08 AM »

Starting west of the Rockies:

Alaska: Fairbanks
Arizona: Mesa
California: Huntington Beach, Simi Valley, or Murrieta
Idaho: Meridian
Hawaii: Probably nowhere
Nevada: Henderson or Carson City
Oregon: Keizer or Grants Pass
Washington: Spokane Valley or Kennewick



Uh Medford in Oregon?

I think Medford and Albany are both going to flip. Same with Marion, Jackson, Yamhill, Polk, and Deschutes counties.

Medford was like +12 Trump

But he wad barely over 50% and it's growing fast. Biden is probably going to beat HRC by at least 8 points in Oregon just based on the number of 3rd party 2016 votes and the biggest swings are going to be in "upscale, downstate" Oregon. Although I did think Medford was closer just eyeballing it off the NYT precinct map so you could definitely be right.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,853
United States


« Reply #4 on: August 06, 2020, 04:23:05 PM »



Huntsville is about 50/50 on composite and it trended D in 2016 so it probably voted for Clinton. .And sandy springs was double digit Clinton BRTD.

In that case, Hoover, AL and Johns Creek, GA.

Biden could definitely win Johns Creek as well.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,853
United States


« Reply #5 on: August 06, 2020, 08:38:37 PM »



Huntsville is about 50/50 on composite and it trended D in 2016 so it probably voted for Clinton. .And sandy springs was double digit Clinton BRTD.

In that case, Hoover, AL and Johns Creek, GA.

Biden could definitely win Johns Creek as well.
Yeah John Creek was +3 Abrams although Rosewell was Kemp +4 and larger so thats more obvious than Creek.

Let me go on record saying that I see Trump slightly favoured in Roswell.

Underrating Dem trends in the North Atlanta suburbs is never a good idea.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,853
United States


« Reply #6 on: August 08, 2020, 03:19:07 AM »

If both Bakersfield AND Huntington Beach were to flip what would be the next largest city that Trump will win in 2020??

Blairite posited the following upthread....

"California: Huntington Beach, Simi Valley, or Murrieta"

Well, here are the possibilities now that I've actually done the precinct analysis, ranked by population in 2010 (DJT 2016 vote share):

23. Huntington Beach (50.2%)
24. Santa Clarita (45.0%)
25. Garden Grove (32.3%)
26. Santa Rosa (21.3%)
27. Oceanside (42.5%)
28. Rancho Cucamonga (45.3%)
29. Ontario (30.5%)
30. Lancaster (41.1%)
31. Elk Grove (33.6%)
32. Palmdale (31.7%)
33. Corona (46.0%)
34. Salinas (22.0%)
35. Pomona (21%)
36. Torrance (37.0%)
37. Hayward (15.2%)
38. Escondido (44.3%)
39. Sunnyvale (18.3%)
40. Pasadena (19.0%)
41. Fullerton (39.2%)
42. Orange (45.1%)
43. Thousand Oaks (42.5%)
44. Visalia (55.1%)
45. Simi Valley (49.0%)
46. Concord (27.7%)
47. Roseville (50.4%)
48. Santa Clara (20.4%)
49. Vallejo (18.5%)
50. Victorville (39.0%)
51. El Monte (17.1%)
52. Berkeley (3.2%)
53. Downey (25.2%)
54. Costa Mesa (41.6%)
55. Inglewood (5.3%)
56. Ventura (34.5%)
57. West Covina (28.3%)
58. Norwalk (21.0%)
59. Carlsbad (41.7%)
60. Fairfield (30.4%)
61. Richmond (6.7%)
62. Murrieta (58.1%)

So my money is on Visalia. Of the cities where DJT got over half the vote, Huntington Beach and Roseville are basically guaranteed flips and I doubt Visalia flips (making Murrieta #1.) Of course, this assumes Bakersfield goes for Biden in the first place.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,853
United States


« Reply #7 on: August 08, 2020, 12:59:09 PM »

If both Bakersfield AND Huntington Beach were to flip what would be the next largest city that Trump will win in 2020??

Blairite posited the following upthread....

"California: Huntington Beach, Simi Valley, or Murrieta"

Well, here are the possibilities now that I've actually done the precinct analysis, ranked by population in 2010 (DJT 2016 vote share):

23. Huntington Beach (50.2%)
24. Santa Clarita (45.0%)
25. Garden Grove (32.3%)
26. Santa Rosa (21.3%)
27. Oceanside (42.5%)
28. Rancho Cucamonga (45.3%)
29. Ontario (30.5%)
30. Lancaster (41.1%)
31. Elk Grove (33.6%)
32. Palmdale (31.7%)
33. Corona (46.0%)
34. Salinas (22.0%)
35. Pomona (21%)
36. Torrance (37.0%)
37. Hayward (15.2%)
38. Escondido (44.3%)
39. Sunnyvale (18.3%)
40. Pasadena (19.0%)
41. Fullerton (39.2%)
42. Orange (45.1%)
43. Thousand Oaks (42.5%)
44. Visalia (55.1%)
45. Simi Valley (49.0%)
46. Concord (27.7%)
47. Roseville (50.4%)
48. Santa Clara (20.4%)
49. Vallejo (18.5%)
50. Victorville (39.0%)
51. El Monte (17.1%)
52. Berkeley (3.2%)
53. Downey (25.2%)
54. Costa Mesa (41.6%)
55. Inglewood (5.3%)
56. Ventura (34.5%)
57. West Covina (28.3%)
58. Norwalk (21.0%)
59. Carlsbad (41.7%)
60. Fairfield (30.4%)
61. Richmond (6.7%)
62. Murrieta (58.1%)

So my money is on Visalia. Of the cities where DJT got over half the vote, Huntington Beach and Roseville are basically guaranteed flips and I doubt Visalia flips (making Murrieta #1.) Of course, this assumes Bakersfield goes for Biden in the first place.

So basically you are on the same groove vibe that if the Bakersfield Freiwall collapses we are gonna roll all the way down to # 44 Visalia?

Yep.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,853
United States


« Reply #8 on: August 10, 2020, 05:27:48 PM »

Washington State:

I believe #11 Spokane Valley would be the correct answer.

Here is how Cities in Washington State voted in 2016:



I would be surprised if #10 Yakima does not flip in 2020, considering that Trump was not only under 50%, but also a large number of 3rd Party votes in 2016.

There is little reason to suspect that Spokane Valley would resemble the type of place to overcome 1 +16.8% Trump win in 2016...





Surprised Clinton won by almost ten points in Spokane, thought it would be closer.  I guess suburbs and rural areas went heavily for Trump.  Bellevue and other Seattle suburbs very interesting as Bush in 2004 got over 40% in most of those so strong swing away from GOP there.

Yeah. It's crazy to see Bellevue swing from Gore around 55% in 2000 to Biden being presumably over 75% this time around. Not something you see much discussion of because King County has always been safe blue, but the Eastside has realigned as hard as any suburban area in the country.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,853
United States


« Reply #9 on: August 11, 2020, 12:27:11 PM »
« Edited: August 12, 2020, 04:53:37 PM by Blairite »

Alright, so I'm setting up this post to create a compiled list once and for all of our predictions and will fill it in as this thread progresses:

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona: Mesa (#3)
Arkansas: Fort Smith (#2)
California: Bakersfield (#9) or Visalia (#44)
Colorado: Colorado Springs (#2)
Connecticut: Shelton (#15)
Delaware: Seaford (#7) or Georgetown (#8)
Florida: Hialeah (#6) or Cape Coral (#10)
Georgia: Warner Robins (#10)
Hawaii: n/a
Idaho: Meridian (#2)
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana: Billings (#1)
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey: Lakewood (#5)
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon: Medford (#8) or Grants Pass (#15)
Pennsylvania: Altoona (#15)
Rhode Island
South Carolina: Mount Pleasant (#4)
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas: Lubbock (#11)
Utah: Provo (#3)
Vermont
Virginia: Lynchburg (#10) or Bristol (#24)
Washington: Spokane Valley (#11)
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,853
United States


« Reply #10 on: August 11, 2020, 01:28:14 PM »

I'd probably add Cape Coral for FL, Altoona for PA and Lubbock for TX.

I'm gonna have to check Hialeah and Frisco but yeah.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,853
United States


« Reply #11 on: August 11, 2020, 02:01:58 PM »

Plano, TX went to Trump by 5 percent in 2016. Could it flip this time or stay with Trump by a much narrower margin?

It's definately flipping.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,853
United States


« Reply #12 on: August 12, 2020, 03:19:41 PM »

Utah:

#1 Salt Lake City--- Clearly Biden. (66% Clinton- 11% Trump, 11% McMullin)

#2 West Valley City--- ??     

2016:

Clinton:        14,031      (41.3%)
Trump:         10,811      (31.9%)
McMullin:       6,314      (18.6%)
Johnson:       1,455       ( 4.3%)
TOTAL:         33,938

My question here is what happens to all of these McMullin voters (and to a lesser extent some of the Johnson voters) in 2016?

If the vast majority of McMullin voters go Trump in 2020 even if Biden gets the edge on some of the Johnson voters, it looks like a potential HRC > Trump flip.

Anybody else want to chime in on West Valley in 2020?

I feel pretty good about West Valley City going for Biden. To start off with, it seems pretty likely Biden is going to win the overwhelming majority of Johnson voters. A lot of Dem gains in 2018 were basically Clinton '16+Johnson+Stein and those voters will presumably vote Biden and don't have strong LDS ties considering that they'd vote for McMullin instead. Which is to say I think Biden has a 45% floor in West Valley City. Assuming he gets just 20% of McMullin voters (reasonable, IMO), that should be enough for him to win with a plurality of the vote. I think Provo is the clear choice.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,853
United States


« Reply #13 on: August 16, 2020, 12:22:05 AM »

I think Medford is lean Trump from your data, but nothing better. It's been growing fast and I think third party '16 voters will break for Biden by even bigger margins then you currently have them doing. Moreover, I think Jackson County might be lean Biden at this point considering its growth and Trump getting under 50% of the vote in 2016.

I think both Albany and Keizer flip before Medford, which means that if it does flip then the biggest OR city for Biden is Grants Pass (#15).
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,853
United States


« Reply #14 on: August 28, 2020, 03:15:24 AM »

Starting west of the Rockies:

Alaska: Fairbanks
Arizona: Mesa
California: Huntington Beach, Simi Valley, or Murrieta
Idaho: Meridian
Hawaii: Probably nowhere
Nevada: Henderson or Carson City
Oregon: Keizer or Grants Pass
Utah: Provo
Washington: Spokane Valley or Kennewick




You think Bakersfield won't vote for Trump? It's larger and more Republican than Huntington Beach. I actually expect HB and Simi Valley to vote Biden.

And I'm still not sold on Medford, but I would enjoy if it flipped.

I updated the list elsewhere in the thread after actually looking at precinct data. TL;DR, the biggest Trump city in CA will be Bakersfield or Visalia.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,853
United States


« Reply #15 on: August 28, 2020, 03:43:50 AM »
« Edited: August 28, 2020, 03:50:54 AM by Blairite »

Starting west of the Rockies:

Alaska: Fairbanks
Arizona: Mesa
California: Huntington Beach, Simi Valley, or Murrieta
Idaho: Meridian
Hawaii: Probably nowhere
Nevada: Henderson or Carson City
Oregon: Keizer or Grants Pass
Utah: Provo
Washington: Spokane Valley or Kennewick




You think Bakersfield won't vote for Trump? It's larger and more Republican than Huntington Beach. I actually expect HB and Simi Valley to vote Biden.

And I'm still not sold on Medford, but I would enjoy if it flipped.

I updated the list elsewhere in the thread after actually looking at precinct data. TL;DR, the biggest Trump city in CA will be Bakersfield or Visalia.

Do you still think HB and SV vote for Trump? I expect a cratering in the suburbs.

Almost certainly not and if they do, Bakersfield also voted for him by a lot. But they were basically tied in 2016 so nah. Those cities were just from a preliminary look at a precinct map to see where to dig deeper.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,853
United States


« Reply #16 on: September 19, 2020, 11:32:47 PM »

Illinois: Decatur
Maryland: Salisbury or Cumberland
New Jersey: Lakewood
New York: Utica
Pennsylvania: Altoona
Tennessee: Murfreesboro
Texas: Probably Plano, if not then definitely Lubbock


Decatur voted for Clinton by a not-insignificant margin.

For the record, the largest city to vote for Trump in IL in 2016 was Orland Park, which was around Trump +9-10 (imprecise precinct estimate). It is possible that it will vote for Trump again, though in this environment it's probably a tossup.

Not Jacksonville? I realized Trump only won Duval County by a very narrow margin, but since Jacksonville's over 95% of the population of the county....

Jacksonville went for Clinton by a couple hundred votes.
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