States’ largest cities that will vote for Trump. (user search)
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  States’ largest cities that will vote for Trump. (search mode)
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Author Topic: States’ largest cities that will vote for Trump.  (Read 11508 times)
Dr. Arch
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« on: September 20, 2020, 08:49:26 PM »

Wisconsin: Largest Trump '16 City:

#7: Waukesha....   Tilt / Likely Trump 2020...

So--- I thought it might be a good idea to review the Top Ten largest Cities in Wisconsin, especially in light of recent events...

IMAGES

Will Green Bay or Appleton flip in 2020 from HRC > Trump?

What about recent unrest in Kenosha in a heavily HRC '16 City?

Is there any reason to suspect that Waukesha might flip in 2020 for Biden?

Could Oshkosh flip before Green Bay or Appleton?


Since we're talking about the city proper areas, rather than their corresponding counties, these are interesting questions.

On the first point (GB and/or Appleton), I think the answer in a solid no on that flip, especially given the current national environment and the increasing trends towards the Democrats in urban and suburban areas. Joe Biden should see improvement on HRC's margins in both GB and Appleton.

On the second point (Kenosha), the recent unrest should not heavily influence Kenosha. It should still be a strong D bastion, especially with this environment. Polling indicates that Trump's response on the civil unrest was viewed more negatively, in general, because he did not do enough or he stoked the flames more than anything else. Some of his actions, particularly his comment on Kenosha not existing if it weren't for him or that photo shoot at a store against the present owner's consent, did do Trump any favors for Kenosha locals either.

On the third point (Waukesha), are we talking about the county or the city? If it's the city, there's a strong chance it will. In fact, if the environment remains unchanged or if it worsens for Trump, I believe one of the WOW counties may finally jump ship from Republicans à la Orange County (or at least come close). In that scenario, cities like Waukesha would be one of the big reasons why that happens (it was D-5 for Baldwin in 2018).

On the last point (city of Oshkosh), it could flip R, but not in this environment.
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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Posts: 12,452
Puerto Rico


« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2020, 09:26:03 PM »

Wisconsin: Largest Trump '16 City:

#7: Waukesha....   Tilt / Likely Trump 2020...

So--- I thought it might be a good idea to review the Top Ten largest Cities in Wisconsin, especially in light of recent events...

IMAGES

Will Green Bay or Appleton flip in 2020 from HRC > Trump?

What about recent unrest in Kenosha in a heavily HRC '16 City?

Is there any reason to suspect that Waukesha might flip in 2020 for Biden?

Could Oshkosh flip before Green Bay or Appleton?


Since we're talking about the city proper areas, rather than their corresponding counties, these are interesting questions.

On the first point (GB and/or Appleton), I think the answer in a solid no on that flip, especially given the current national environment and the increasing trends towards the Democrats in urban and suburban areas. Joe Biden should see improvement on HRC's margins in both GB and Appleton.

On the second point (Kenosha), the recent unrest should not heavily influence Kenosha. It should still be a strong D bastion, especially with this environment. Polling indicates that Trump's response on the civil unrest was viewed more negatively, in general, because he did not do enough or he stoked the flames more than anything else. Some of his actions, particularly his comment on Kenosha not existing if it weren't for him or that photo shoot at a store against the present owner's consent, did do Trump any favors for Kenosha locals either.

On the third point (Waukesha), are we talking about the county or the city? If it's the city, there's a strong chance it will. In fact, if the environment remains unchanged or if it worsens for Trump, I believe one of the WOW counties may finally jump ship from Republicans à la Orange County (or at least come close). In that scenario, cities like Waukesha would be one of the big reasons why that happens (it was D-5 for Baldwin in 2018).

On the last point (city of Oshkosh), it could flip R, but not in this environment.

The Election numbers I posted for all are for the "Cities" only, and do not include "Townships", "Villages", nor Counties...

Still WOW counties are a lot more than just one City, and Trump attempts to play in WI, he's gotta do extremely well within the "Green Bay" area, plus WOW, and hold onto rurals...

Haven't run the 2018 numbers for Waukesha (City), but WI overall with Overall High Voter Turnout Levels that we are unlikely to observe massive TO changes from '16 GE in terms of % of votes...

Also haven't run the numbers from the City back in time, so a 41% HRC vs 51% Trump '16 number in '16 is not especially elucidating...

Meanwhile... Trump under-performs in "Rural Wisconsin" will likely be the kiss of death, regardless of the WOW Counties and Metro Green Bay area....

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/18/trump-wisconsin-suburbs-milwaukee-1501805

Trump will almost certainly make some inroads in the small towns of eastern WI (thinking around the Fox Valley area), but everything else might just fall from under.
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