States’ largest cities that will vote for Trump.

[NOVA Green]

IDAHO:

1.) Boise was something like 52-34% HRC in '16, so can obviously be ruled out (Unless somehow folks think there will a massive swing towards Trump in '20 Boise?

2.) Nampa... (Canyon County).... I played around with the numbers back in '17 as a side project, but unless it is saved on an external Hard Drive, I was not easily able to access...

Still, looking the numbers again, even if we ignore the obvious split-precincts assuming 11/3/15 Mayoral results represented 2016 GE PRES boundaries:

Trump:   21,822        (62.6%)
HRC:       8,615         (24.7%)
McMullin: 2,108         ( 6.0%)
Johnson:  1,468         (4,2%)
Stein:         432          (1.2%)
Castle:        202
Misc:           206

TOTAL:   34,853

Even if these results exclude write-in ballots for Sanders, I am having a difficult time conceptualizing Nampa flipping in 2020...

3.) Meridian--- the population now exceeds that of Nampa   (As opposed to the '16 GE largest State, so definitely worthy of further inquiry, which Blairite first posited based upon the current 2nd largest City in Idaho....

Edit: So attempted to run Meridian precinct results using '15 and '19 Mayoral Election numbers numbers...

So after subtracting the obvious split-precinct might be something close to the following in '16:

TRUMP:        25,178     (56.9%)
HRC:            11,583     (26.2%)
McMullin:       3,218      ( 7.3%)
Johnson:        2,083      (4.7%)
Stein:              429       (1.0%)

TOTAL:        44,223

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Alright, so I'm setting up this post to create a compiled list once and for all of our predictions and will fill it in as this thread progresses:

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona: Mesa (#3)
Arkansas: Fort Smith (#2)
California: Bakersfield (#9) or Visalia (#44)
Colorado: Colorado Springs (#2)
Connecticut: Shelton (#15)
Delaware: Seaford (#7) or Georgetown (#8)
Florida: Hialeah (#6) or Cape Coral (#10)
Georgia: Warner Robins (#10)
Hawaii: n/a
Idaho: Meridian (#2)
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana: Billings (#1)
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey: Lakewood (#5)
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon: Medford (#8) or Grants Pass (#15)
Pennsylvania: Altoona (#15)
Rhode Island
South Carolina: Mount Pleasant (#4)
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas: Lubbock (#11)
Utah: Provo (#3)
Vermont
Virginia: Lynchburg (#10) or Bristol (#24)
Washington: Spokane Valley (#11)
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

[Roll Roons]

I'd probably add Cape Coral for FL, Altoona for PA and Lubbock for TX.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I'd probably add Cape Coral for FL, Altoona for PA and Lubbock for TX.

I'm gonna have to check Hialeah and Frisco but yeah.

[Roll Roons]

I'd probably add Cape Coral for FL, Altoona for PA and Lubbock for TX.

I'm gonna have to check Hialeah and Frisco but yeah.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_in_Texas_by_population. Lubbock is Titanium R, and much bigger than Frisco.

And this article (https://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/donald-trump-says-cuban-voters-love-him-but-hes-wrong-9146019) says Hialeah was "effectively tied" in 2016, and I don't see much evidence that Trump's standing among Cubans has improved.

[Real Texan Politics]

Plano, TX went to Trump by 5 percent in 2016. Could it flip this time or stay with Trump by a much narrower margin?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Plano, TX went to Trump by 5 percent in 2016. Could it flip this time or stay with Trump by a much narrower margin?

It's definately flipping.

[lfromnj]

Plano, TX went to Trump by 5 percent in 2016. Could it flip this time or stay with Trump by a much narrower margin?

Id say it probably flips considering Beto won it by 4. Frisco should vote for Trump as its a bit redder than Collin as a whole.

[NOVA Green]

Utah:

#1 Salt Lake City--- Clearly Biden. (66% Clinton- 11% Trump, 11% McMullin)

#2 West Valley City--- ??     

2016:

Clinton:        14,031      (41.3%)
Trump:         10,811      (31.9%)
McMullin:       6,314      (18.6%)
Johnson:       1,455       ( 4.3%)
TOTAL:         33,938

My question here is what happens to all of these McMullin voters (and to a lesser extent some of the Johnson voters) in 2016?

If the vast majority of McMullin voters go Trump in 2020 even if Biden gets the edge on some of the Johnson voters, it looks like a potential HRC > Trump flip.

Anybody else want to chime in on West Valley in 2020?

*If* not West Valley, since it appears that Provo still holds a narrow edge over West Jordan in Total Population, then Provo would be the obvious choice for Trump's largest town in UT:

#3 Provo:

2016:

Clinton:      6,277       (19.2%)
Trump:       12,860     (39.4%)
McMullin:    11,419     (35.0%)
Johnson:      1,165     ( 3.6%)
TOTAL:        32,670

Now I guess one could try to make an argument that College Town and McMullin '16 voters might break heavily Biden in 2020, but we don't really have any evidence of a "McMullin > Biden" surge in Utah at this point (albeit with sparse polling out of the State).
     

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Utah:

#1 Salt Lake City--- Clearly Biden. (66% Clinton- 11% Trump, 11% McMullin)

#2 West Valley City--- ??     

2016:

Clinton:        14,031      (41.3%)
Trump:         10,811      (31.9%)
McMullin:       6,314      (18.6%)
Johnson:       1,455       ( 4.3%)
TOTAL:         33,938

My question here is what happens to all of these McMullin voters (and to a lesser extent some of the Johnson voters) in 2016?

If the vast majority of McMullin voters go Trump in 2020 even if Biden gets the edge on some of the Johnson voters, it looks like a potential HRC > Trump flip.

Anybody else want to chime in on West Valley in 2020?

I feel pretty good about West Valley City going for Biden. To start off with, it seems pretty likely Biden is going to win the overwhelming majority of Johnson voters. A lot of Dem gains in 2018 were basically Clinton '16+Johnson+Stein and those voters will presumably vote Biden and don't have strong LDS ties considering that they'd vote for McMullin instead. Which is to say I think Biden has a 45% floor in West Valley City. Assuming he gets just 20% of McMullin voters (reasonable, IMO), that should be enough for him to win with a plurality of the vote. I think Provo is the clear choice.

[NOVA Green]

Alright, so I'm setting up this post to create a compiled list once and for all of our predictions and will fill it in as this thread progresses:

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona: Mesa (#3)
Arkansas: Fort Smith (#2)
California: Bakersfield (#9) or Visalia (#44)
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Georgia: Warner Robins (#10)
Hawaii: n/a
Idaho: Meridian (#2)
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey: Lakewood (#5)
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania: Altoona (#15)
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas: Lubbock (#11)
Utah: Provo (#3)
Vermont
Virginia
Washington: Spokane Valley (#11)
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

I like what you're doing here, and after all we all like lists!

I've been trying to post by individual state to make for easier reference points...

One thought with this list, might be able to add in categories such as '16>'20 Flip, Tossup, Tilt, Lean, & Safe...

So for example with Alabama, I would code Huntsville as a likely flip for Biden since HRC only lost by 1% in '16, demographics seem like a good fit for an increased DEM performance, plus the current national polling environment.

Hoover, Alabama:  On surface looks like a Safe Trump (+20% in '16), although demographics and the +20% Doug Jones win there, might cause some to call it a Lean Trump (~+10%) in '20.

Alaska: I might call Anchorage a Tossup (# Trump under 50% in '16, high number of 3rd Party Voters in '16, "ornery Alaska", what limited State polling we have for 2020, but others might call it Tilt Biden or Tilt Trump. Regardless #2 Fairbanks would be Safe Trump.

Arizona: #3 Mesa looks like a Safe Trump (+10%) in '20, but some might prefer to move it into the Lean Trump category (+6-10%) because of AZ statewide polling, National polling, and shifts within Metro Phoenix.

Arkansas: #2 Fort Smith--- Looks like a Safe Trump '20, although I did find the demographics more interesting than expected.

California: #9 Bakersfield--- I might call it a Tossup, others might code it as Tilt Trump or Tilt Biden, based upon demographic changes (Growing Latino electorate), gradual DEM PRES % gains, etc...

Colorado: #2 Colorado Springs--- Probably a Safe Trump (+10%), although again some might point to National or Colorado polling and put it in the Likely Trump category.

Idaho: #2 Meridian-  This would obviously be Safe Trump.

Without going down the entire list, since there are still quite a few blanks, and places to be explored in further detail, my thought is that this might help us shift our opinions as additional State & National polling comes out as we start to move closer to the endgame of the 2020 GE PRES Election....

[libertpaulian]

If Trump only won Fort Wayne by 6%, I think Biden has a legit shot at flipping it this year.

[NOVA Green]

Utah:

#1 Salt Lake City--- Clearly Biden. (66% Clinton- 11% Trump, 11% McMullin)

#2 West Valley City--- ??     

2016:

Clinton:        14,031      (41.3%)
Trump:         10,811      (31.9%)
McMullin:       6,314      (18.6%)
Johnson:       1,455       ( 4.3%)
TOTAL:         33,938

My question here is what happens to all of these McMullin voters (and to a lesser extent some of the Johnson voters) in 2016?

If the vast majority of McMullin voters go Trump in 2020 even if Biden gets the edge on some of the Johnson voters, it looks like a potential HRC > Trump flip.

Anybody else want to chime in on West Valley in 2020?

I feel pretty good about West Valley City going for Biden. To start off with, it seems pretty likely Biden is going to win the overwhelming majority of Johnson voters. A lot of Dem gains in 2018 were basically Clinton '16+Johnson+Stein and those voters will presumably vote Biden and don't have strong LDS ties considering that they'd vote for McMullin instead. Which is to say I think Biden has a 45% floor in West Valley City. Assuming he gets just 20% of McMullin voters (reasonable, IMO), that should be enough for him to win with a plurality of the vote. I think Provo is the clear choice.

You raise some good points regarding West Valley City overall... as well as the 2018 elections.

Although only some precincts fall within UT CD-04 we see something like:

McAdams (D):     8,690     (62.4%)
Love   (R):          5,171     (37.1%)
TOTAL:               13,927   

These same precincts went:

Clinton:     7,659     (43.7%)
Trump:      5,513     (31.4%)
McMullin:   2,890    (16.5%)
Johnson:      764     ( 4.4%)
TOTAL:      17,545

So.... based upon that, Biden's chances look good here in 2020.
       

[NOVA Green]

OREGON:

So as I have posted on other threads the seven largest Cities in Oregon (Portland, Salem, Eugene, Gresham, Hillsboro, Beaverton and Bend, all voted for Clinton in '16 by convincing margins, and there is no empirical evidence to suggest that 2020 will be any different.

Without going into extensive detail here are how the Top 24 Cities in OR by POP in 2016 voted in the PRES GE (As I posted on my OR PRES GE thread):

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.125

1.) Portland- 594.7k---- 2016: (78-13 D); 2012: (79-16 D)         +2% Dem Swing
2.) Eugene-  157.3k---  2016: (66-23 D); 2012: (69-26 D)         +0% Swing
3.) Salem-    156.9k---  2016: (50-39 D); 2012: (54-42 D)         +1% Rep Swing
4.) Gresham- 107.2k--- 2016: (49-39 D); 2012: (55-42 D)         +3% Rep Swing
5.) Hillsboro-  107.2k--- 2016: (55-32 D); 2012: (56-39 D)        +6% Dem Swing
6.) Beaverton- 91.4k----2016: (63-25 D)2012: (62-34 D)           +10% Dem Swing
7.) Bend----     87.1k--- 2016: (52-36 D); 2012: (53-44 D)         +7 % Dem Swing
8.) Medford--   75.9k--- 2016: (39-51 R); 2012: (43-54 R)          +1% Rep Swing
9.) Springfield--59.7k--  2016: (47-40 D); 2012: (55-39 D)         +9% Rep Swing
10.) Corvallis-- 54.7k--  2016: (70-18 D); 2012: (69-25 D)        +8 % Dem Swin
11.) Albany---- 50.8k-- 2016:  (40-47 R); 2012: (46-49 R)         +4% Rep Swing
12.) Tigard---   49.0k-- 2016: (58-30 D); 2012: (56-40 D)          +12% Dem Swing   
13.) Lake Oswego- 37.0k- 2016: (63-26 D); 2012: (57-41 D)     +20% Dem Swing
14.) Keizer---   36.7k---   2016: (39-49 R); 2012: (45-53 R)       +2% Rep Swing
15.) Grants Pass-- 34.5k- 2016: (32-58 R); 2012: (39-57 R)      +8 % Rep Swing
16.) McMinville-- 32.2k--- 2016: (47-42 D); 2012: (51-46 D)      +0% Swing
17.) Oregon City- 33.1k-  2016: (45-42 D); 2012: (51-46 D)      +2% Rep Swing
18.) Redmond-- 26.2k--  2016: (31-58 R); 2012: (37-59 R)       +5% Rep Swing
19.) Tualatin-- 26.4k--    2016: (53-34 D); 2012: (51-46 D)      +14% Dem Swing
20.) West Linn- 25.5k-- 2016: (60-29 D); 2012: (55-44 D)         +20% Dem Swing
21.) Woodburn--- 24.1k-- 2016: (51-40 D);  2012: (52-45 D)       +4% Dem Swing
22.) Newberg--- 22.1k--- 2016: (40-45 R); 2012: (43-53 R)         +5% Dem Swing
23.) Roseburg-- 21.2k--- 2016: (34-55 R); 2012: (41-55 R)          +7% Rep Swing
24.) Forest Grove-- 21.6k-- 2016: (47-39 D); 2012: (53-41 D)     +4% Rep Swing

Without going into extensive detail at this point about any of these cities, and regurgitating previous posts from another thread, one of my observations was that in many cases, even places which swung Republican between '12 and '16 did so more because of a significant defection among Obama '12 Democrats towards 3rd Party Candidates (Write-In / Sanders, Stein, and Johnson).

#8 Medford:  (Pop 83k as of 7/1/19 vs 80k as of '16).

So I'll start with just linking to a post I made on 1/21/17 regarding Medford. Honestly not my best in terms of graphs and visuals, etc... but I was trying to crunch data quickly for multiple counties in OR but with a level of detail, well before any precinct maps were being published...

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5483203#msg5483203

So... brief peak at Medford:

1.) Fortunately I have a comprehensive data-set of OR election results by precinct for 1992.

2.) I believe I have a mostly complete precinct data for 1988, excepting perhaps a handful of small rural counties in Oregon.

3.) For some strange reason 1996 GE PRES precinct results are some of the rarest elements of Precinct Level Collections... and Oregon is no exception.

Medford-- 1992 to 2016 US PRES RAW GE Vote



Let's look at the same data-set as a % of support by Party for GE Candidates...



Honestly not quite ready yet to call Medford a 2020 Biden "Flip" (Although honestly it's really starting to look that way, especially within a Ntl GE Environment where Biden is likely leading somewhere between 6-8% and quite possibly even more so...

Obama only lost Medford by 5.5% in '08 and raw Total Votes are jacking up as the POP increases and people become of voting age...

Really need to think harder about Medford, since not only been disappointed many times in the past, but also if Medford flips that will indicate that Jackson County is flipping hard DEM, unless some weird stuff in Eagle Creek & Central Point essentially acts as the "inelastic" part of Jackson County....

[NOVA Green]

OREGON:

So as I have posted on other threads the seven largest Cities in Oregon (Portland, Salem, Eugene, Gresham, Hillsboro, Beaverton and Bend, all voted for Clinton in '16 by convincing margins, and there is no empirical evidence to suggest that 2020 will be any different.

Without going into extensive detail here are how the Top 24 Cities in OR by POP in 2016 voted in the PRES GE (As I posted on my OR PRES GE thread):

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.125

1.) Portland- 594.7k---- 2016: (78-13 D); 2012: (79-16 D)         +2% Dem Swing
2.) Eugene-  157.3k---  2016: (66-23 D); 2012: (69-26 D)         +0% Swing
3.) Salem-    156.9k---  2016: (50-39 D); 2012: (54-42 D)         +1% Rep Swing
4.) Gresham- 107.2k--- 2016: (49-39 D); 2012: (55-42 D)         +3% Rep Swing
5.) Hillsboro-  107.2k--- 2016: (55-32 D); 2012: (56-39 D)        +6% Dem Swing
6.) Beaverton- 91.4k----2016: (63-25 D)2012: (62-34 D)           +10% Dem Swing
7.) Bend----     87.1k--- 2016: (52-36 D); 2012: (53-44 D)         +7 % Dem Swing
8.) Medford--   75.9k--- 2016: (39-51 R); 2012: (43-54 R)          +1% Rep Swing
9.) Springfield--59.7k--  2016: (47-40 D); 2012: (55-39 D)         +9% Rep Swing
10.) Corvallis-- 54.7k--  2016: (70-18 D); 2012: (69-25 D)        +8 % Dem Swin
11.) Albany---- 50.8k-- 2016:  (40-47 R); 2012: (46-49 R)         +4% Rep Swing
12.) Tigard---   49.0k-- 2016: (58-30 D); 2012: (56-40 D)          +12% Dem Swing   
13.) Lake Oswego- 37.0k- 2016: (63-26 D); 2012: (57-41 D)     +20% Dem Swing
14.) Keizer---   36.7k---   2016: (39-49 R); 2012: (45-53 R)       +2% Rep Swing
15.) Grants Pass-- 34.5k- 2016: (32-58 R); 2012: (39-57 R)      +8 % Rep Swing
16.) McMinville-- 32.2k--- 2016: (47-42 D); 2012: (51-46 D)      +0% Swing
17.) Oregon City- 33.1k-  2016: (45-42 D); 2012: (51-46 D)      +2% Rep Swing
18.) Redmond-- 26.2k--  2016: (31-58 R); 2012: (37-59 R)       +5% Rep Swing
19.) Tualatin-- 26.4k--    2016: (53-34 D); 2012: (51-46 D)      +14% Dem Swing
20.) West Linn- 25.5k-- 2016: (60-29 D); 2012: (55-44 D)         +20% Dem Swing
21.) Woodburn--- 24.1k-- 2016: (51-40 D);  2012: (52-45 D)       +4% Dem Swing
22.) Newberg--- 22.1k--- 2016: (40-45 R); 2012: (43-53 R)         +5% Dem Swing
23.) Roseburg-- 21.2k--- 2016: (34-55 R); 2012: (41-55 R)          +7% Rep Swing
24.) Forest Grove-- 21.6k-- 2016: (47-39 D); 2012: (53-41 D)     +4% Rep Swing

Without going into extensive detail at this point about any of these cities, and regurgitating previous posts from another thread, one of my observations was that in many cases, even places which swung Republican between '12 and '16 did so more because of a significant defection among Obama '12 Democrats towards 3rd Party Candidates (Write-In / Sanders, Stein, and Johnson).

#8 Medford:  (Pop 83k as of 7/1/19 vs 80k as of '16).

So I'll start with just linking to a post I made on 1/21/17 regarding Medford. Honestly not my best in terms of graphs and visuals, etc... but I was trying to crunch data quickly for multiple counties in OR but with a level of detail, well before any precinct maps were being published...

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5483203#msg5483203

So... brief peak at Medford:

1.) Fortunately I have a comprehensive data-set of OR election results by precinct for 1992.

2.) I believe I have a mostly complete precinct data for 1988, excepting perhaps a handful of small rural counties in Oregon.

3.) For some strange reason 1996 GE PRES precinct results are some of the rarest elements of Precinct Level Collections... and Oregon is no exception.

Honestly not quite ready yet to call Medford a 2020 Biden "Flip" (Although honestly it's really starting to look that way, especially within a Ntl GE Environment where Biden is likely leading somewhere between 6-8% and quite possibly even more so...

Obama only lost Medford by 5.5% in '08 and raw Total Votes are jacking up as the POP increases and people become of voting age...

Really need to think harder about Medford, since not only been disappointed many times in the past, but also if Medford flips that will indicate that Jackson County is flipping hard DEM, unless some weird stuff in Eagle Creek & Central Point essentially acts as the "inelastic" part of Jackson County....

So I figured I would take a look and consolidate precinct results from Medford for some other recent elections to see if it is informative of changes within the City and potential for a Biden '20 flip from a Trump '16 City...

First let's review the PRES GE numbers from '92 to '16 (Still missing Jackson County OR '96 from my collection--- please PM me if you have it in your collection)....

Medford--- PRES GE Raw Votes by Party '92 > '16




Medford--- PRES GE Raw % by Party '92> '16




1.) Looking at Medford '92 > 04 Total GE PRES Votes indicates how heavily the City was transforming away from Timber and increasingly towards Medical Sector jobs, while simultaneously a significant number of both internal (Oregon) and External (Likely heavily Californian) migrants to the City, combined with obviously locals becoming of voting age, and minus some of our beloved relatives passing on...

2.) The 2008 PRES Election numbers should definitely give serious pause to Jackson County Republicans, as well as the potential that current CD-02 could well flip in the 2020s if Jackson and Deschutes County start moving harder DEM within the fastest growing counties....

3.) Trump '16 having the worst % performance as a Republican in Medford since likely 1984....

Still to be fair Democratic Party PRES % in Medford has dropped 7.7% since '08, and Trump-Pence did a Mega-rally in Medford to dig the final nail into the coffin of Kasich, the last man standing against Trumpism within the Party.

4.) 2016 Medford--- 3rd Party GE PRES Votes:

Libertarian---      1,744      (4.8%) 
Write-In---          1,403      (3.8%)
Pacific Green--       866      (2.4%)

    A.) Vast majority of Write-In ballots are likely Sanders Ballots.... McMullin  would likely get the change.... Obviously you might also have a small number of "Romney", "Colin Powell" votes, as well as your usual votes for candidates such as "Donald Duck", "Micky Mouse" and "Bozo the Clown"....

Let's say hypothetically Biden gets an additional (840) votes or basically 60% of the GE PRES '16 Write-Ins from Medford.

Okay--- be a bit generous to Trump, let's says he gets 30% of the Write-Ins:

Biden---   (840)
Trump---  (421)

    B.) Extremely doubtful that Greens will be able to come close to their 2.4% in Medford in '20 so a reasonable assumption would be that Biden-Harris likely grabs another (500) votes.

     Biden:  (433 Votes)
     Trump: (50   Votes)


C.) Not totally sure how to parse out the Gary Johnson / Libertarian votes in Medford.

My assumption would be that this voting block would heavily consist of Gen-Exers and Younger, with a smaller fraction of voters 46+....

Still, I would imagine that in 2020 GE PRES the Johnson '16 flip to DEM/PUB voters would likely benefit Biden more so than Trump...

So, let's say the Libertarian '20 vote in Medford is only 40% of their (1,744) '16 numbers, leaves about 1,050 Libertarian votes to be redistributed...

Hypothetically let's say they break 60-40 Biden...

Biden:     (630)
Trump:    (420)

So... what is the purpose of the exercise?

1.) Let's say numbers were fixed in time from '16 for DEM /PUB PRES voters and 3rd Party votes are redistributed...  (I suspect these numbers are likely generous to Trump)

Biden:    + 1,903 Votes
Trump:   +    891 Votes

2.) So at a minimum Biden shaves off at least +1k votes off of Trump '16 margins, and quite possibly even +2k votes, simply from 3rd Party decrease vote share in 2020 in Medford...

3.) Naturally this doesn't include any impacts from newer voters (Natural coming of age locals, internal and external migrants to Medford, and unfortunately people dying).

4.) This certainly does not include random items such as swing from Obama '08 > Romney '12 > Trump '16 voters or any combination thereof.

Do we have any evidence in other elections that Medford has been shifting hard in the Democratic Party to evidence a flip within the City?

I decided to pull up some precinct numbers for Medford from other recent elections:

OR-GOV 2014 and 2018:



1.) Interestingly enough Kate Brown in '16 is out-performing HRC by some (700) Dem Votes in '16 and Trump is roughly (260) votes behind Buehler.

2.) Typically OR-GOV candidates significantly under-perform in downstate OR vs PRES candidates so although '18 might not look like a great year for Kate Brown in Medford, it appears most likely possible that DEM vote drop-off between '16 and '18 was more significant in the OR-GOV race than "flip voters"...

3.) There's an old saying that: "A Bird in the hand is worth two in the Bush". So basically in terms of election results, it means that every voter who flips is worth "two votes".

https://www.gingersoftware.com/content/phrases/a-bird-in-the-hand-is-worth-two-in-the-bush/

OR-Medford- CD '02- 2012 to 2018



1.) Medford has consistently voted for Greg Walden, although the '18 numbers demonstrate how increasingly he was tied to the Trump brand and how not only did his numbers crater, but additionally how effective Jamie McLeod-Skinner was at making the CD-02 election "competitive" in '18.

What about Medford for US-SEN in '14 and '16?



1.) So we see both Merkley and Wyden winning Medford by a plurality of the vote.

2.) Merkley obviously performed much worse than Wyden '16, still it was '14 off-year election and the Greens still bagged (450) votes in Medford, Libertarians got (940) Votes, and the Consitutionalists roll in at (488) votes.

3.) Wyden '16 won Medford by a solid 45-38, despite a massive defection to the Left:

Working Family Party:    (920 Votes)---   (2.6%)
Pacific Green Party:       (775 Votes)---    (2.2%)

What about the 2018 Oregon State Senate District # 3 which flipped after the retirement of a 'Pub Incumbent?

Medford Oregon 2018 SSD 3:

Golden (D):  14,011      (43.3%)
Gomez (R):   18,271     (56.5%)
TOTAL:          32,326 

So stretching my brain, assuming 3rd Party Votes are maybe only about 5% of PRES Votes in 2020...

Biden should easily match an exceed Obama '08 numbers and % of the Vote...

1.) Still will Biden be able to crack 47% or more the vote in order to flip the City in 2020?

2.) In 2018, Dems only won precincts #15 and #19 for US REP, with Precinct #19 being a literal tie between Buehler & Brown for OR-GOV...

Although National Polling Numbers (Biden +8-10%) might well indicate a landslide, I have yet to see a convincing argument as to why Medford will flip in '20, despite some % margin increases in the more Upper-Income and Educated Eastside in '16.

I can certainly imagine a flip, especially if Biden is able to replicate some of his numbers elsewhere with Anglo Seniors, but at this point am still on the fence with Medford when it comes to a Biden '20 Flip...

Thoughts Atlas?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I think Medford is lean Trump from your data, but nothing better. It's been growing fast and I think third party '16 voters will break for Biden by even bigger margins then you currently have them doing. Moreover, I think Jackson County might be lean Biden at this point considering its growth and Trump getting under 50% of the vote in 2016.

I think both Albany and Keizer flip before Medford, which means that if it does flip then the biggest OR city for Biden is Grants Pass (#15).

[Hnv1]

Well Vermont is quite complex as Sanders write-ins tipped some towns atlas blue last time around.

I can't see Trump holding on to Barre. On a good election night I can see him winning Derby or Highgate. on a mediocre night West Rutland and Clarendon which he won by over 50% are still possible. on a bad night and worse I can't see him winning any town with more than 1K voters

[NOVA Green]

I think Medford is lean Trump from your data, but nothing better. It's been growing fast and I think third party '16 voters will break for Biden by even bigger margins then you currently have them doing. Moreover, I think Jackson County might be lean Biden at this point considering its growth and Trump getting under 50% of the vote in 2016.

I think both Albany and Keizer flip before Medford, which means that if it does flip then the biggest OR city for Biden is Grants Pass (#15).

Agreed with you on both Albany (Which we have discussed elsewhere) & Keizer (Although I'll need to take a closer look at the latter), and Grants Pass is logically Republican in virtually any scenario and votes to the Right of Josephine County as a whole...

BTW: Believe you have a typo above and meant Trump instead of Biden.   

Still--- with Trump only winning 50.6% of the vote in '16 AND with a relatively fast-growing population AND considering current national polling numbers, I'm still not considering Medford more than a Tilt / Lean Trump and even willing to entertain it as a potential Toss-Up territory.

So--- all that being said I thought it might be interesting to go back and look at the precinct level results from '04 to '16 to see what the data shows.

To start with here is the precinct map for Medford, which is the same from '08 > '16 (Actually I believe the precinct boundaries were the same in '04 with the exception of precinct #47 being carved out from precinct #50 in '08).



Without starting with commentary let's look at the precinct maps from 2004 to 2016:









1.) 2004 we observe how dominant historically Republican Presidential Candidates have been even in relatively recent elections.

Kerry only narrowly won one precinct (Precinct # 58) in Downtown / West Medford, narrowly lost another in East Medford (Precinct # 48), lost another precinct in West Medford by 7% (Precinct #60) and pretty much got slaughtered everywhere else by major double-digits and even lost (3) precincts by 2:1 in NE Medford (Precincts # 40, 42, and 46).

2.) 2008 we see a tale of two cities.... Obama rolling in with a DEM record in Medford (Likely the highest % for a DEM here since '64).... although '88 and '76 might be interesting to look at but am currently too lazy to find the bin with '88 OR GE PRES precinct results for every county, and I don't have access to '76 results without driving a few hours to the county courthouse or an hour North to Salem in the era of COVID and trying to access documents from the archives...

3.) Obama '08 would likely be the logical building block for a '20 DEM Medford flip...

As Blairite has posited, some of the biggest GE PRES swings in OR in 2020 might well come from "Upscale Downstate Oregon"...

4.) Let's look at the '04 to '08 PRES Swing by Precinct to see how dramatic it was in taking a reliability overwhelmingly Republican Downstate OR City and essentially turning it into a "Tilt/Lean Trump City in '20 from a conservative estimation...



5.) 2008 we see how impressive Obama performed, winning 4/14 precincts, including 3/4 in SW Medford, plus precinct # 48 at +12%, keeping PUB margins down to mid-single digits with 5/14 precincts including North Medford and two precincts in SE Medford.

6.) 2012 Republicans regain some ground in Medford with Romney running against Obama...

Still how does the '08 to '12 Swings look like by precinct?



A.) Overall Obama in '12 is still rolling at 43% vs 53% Romney with overall relatively surprisingly small swings in most precincts...

Obama appears to have been part of a total adjust pattern in Medford with even '12 numbers looking pretty good for the PRES within the City...

B.) I should also mention that TOT US PRES votes in Medford dropped about 1k from '08 to '12 (Likely hitting Obama harder than Romney)

7.) Now time to look at Medford 2016 as a % change of Republican support by Precinct from '12 to '16 to gauge the Trumpista influence that might endure in 2020:



8.) Overall these numbers from '16 in Medford might look good for Republicans in theory looking at Medford West of I-5, but starts to become much more problematic with significant collapse of Republican support in precincts East of I-5.

9.) Let's take a brief look at % of Latinos by Block Group Maps in Medford?



10.) West of I-5 we see major Latino populations, likely somewhere around 20%+ of the Population as of '18...

11.) East of I-5, we also observe significant concentrations within the Census Block Group Maps on the few exits if you are driving North on the 5... Latino POP running roughly 20% in these joints...

12.) We also have a few Census Block Groups such as Block Group 000602-1 (28% Latino on the Eastside)

https://statisticalatlas.com/block-group/Oregon/Jackson-County/000602-1/Race-and-Ethnicity

13.) What about the overwhelmingly Anglo parts of Medford?

Here is a Census Block Group map from around 2018....




14.) Hmm... weird. We see Trump support collapse in the most Anglo precincts in Medford, but improving in the most Latino precincts in Medford in 2016?

When I lived in Tejas, Obama was frequently referred to as the "Deporter in Chief" among both me and wide's Mexican-American friends in Houston, where even the Husband of my wife's co-worker got deported for a DUI, after something like (20) Years being married to an American Citizen, with three kids together all because his "paperwork was out of status".

I strongly suspect much of the drop-off in '16 DEM numbers in heavily Latino Precincts of Medford was directly caused by Obama Post '12 decisions.... although I strongly doubt that Biden will take the hit despite being VP under Obama, and Kamala might be able to help explain the "immigrant experience" in a way that perhaps only Sanders might have been able to do...

14.) Educational Attainment by Census Block Tract circa '16



15.) Look at Population 60-69 by Census Block Tract in Medford.



Medford exhibits characteristics of a City which might well flip in 2020:

   A.) Significantly lower Latino Turnout in '16 PRES.
   B.) Significantly lower performance among Anglos supporting PUB PRES in East Medford.
   C.) Significantly lower support among College Educated Anglos (East Medford)
   D.) If Biden Anglo Senior Ntl Vote % are to be believed, which is not inconceivable in the COVID-19
        era, it would not be surprising to see Biden perform significantly better than even Obama '08  in
        that Demographic in Medford come 2020

[Fwillb21]

I’ll do some educated and even wild guesses for some select states. Who knows how right I’ll be???

Maine: Brewer
New Hampshire: Salem
Massachusetts: Tewksbury
New York: Somewhere on LI
Rhode Island: West Warwick or Woonsocket
Connecticut: Very tough one
Vermont: ??
New Jersey: Brick Township
Maryland: Bel Air
Delaware: Milford
Virginia: Lynchburg
North Carolina: Hickory
Georgia: Macon
Pennsylvania: Altoona
Ohio: Warren
Michigan: Saginaw
Indiana: Noblesville maybe?
Wisconsin: Waukesha
Minnesota: Moorhead
Colorado: Colorado Springs
Utah: Provo
California: Newport Beach
Oregon: Tough one
Washington: Yakima
Idaho: Meridian
Alaska: Fairbanks
Hawaii: Not sure, perhaps none
Florida: Clearwater
Arizona: Mesa
Texas: The Woodlands
Kansas: Salina
Oklahoma: Lawton
Arkansas: Bentonville
Nebraska: Grand Island
South Dakota: Rapid City
North Dakota: Bismarck
Montana: Great Falls

[cg41386]

NJ is going to be Lakewood, Saginaw is safe Biden, same with Macon, Woonsocket is likely Biden.

[NOVA Green]

Montana:

#1 Billings: Should be the obvious answer, but in the era where Trump might end up losing the PV by 8-10% essentially makes it a bit of an odds bet...

Still, gets a bit tricky once we roll into the Zone...

Tried to roll the precinct numbers from '16 and came out something like this in terms of raw vote:



Yellowstone County changed precinct lines in 2013, so although possible haven't attempted to run '08 or '12 compare and contrast numbers, still trying to roll the '16 precinct numbers by %:



For anyone looking at the Write-In numbers, they appear to be overwhelmingly Sanders with McMullin accounting for a relatively small chunk of the WI vote-share county wide.

Trump at only 51.3% in '16 in Billings MT, makes Cheyenne WY look like an extreme-right stronghold...

Not predicting a Biden '20 flip even in a +10% Ntl Biden win, but it certainly moves us into that "down-ballot bump" for MT-SEN and MT-GOV in a quirky State...

3rd Party Votes in Billings MT in '16 are likely overwhelmingly DEM voters in '20....

Not an expert on MT, but figured I would toss at least the '16 GE PRES numbers out there, since unfortunately not able to easily run a compare/contrast (Although certainly there are items out there which would likely be able to present the data, but recently got off work, so not really invested the time on this item yet).

[NOVA Green]

Montana:

#1 Billings: Should be the obvious answer, but in the era where Trump might end up losing the PV by 8-10% essentially makes it a bit of an odds bet...

Still, gets a bit tricky once we roll into the Zone...

Tried to roll the precinct numbers from '16 and came out something like this in terms of raw vote:



Yellowstone County changed precinct lines in 2013, so although possible haven't attempted to run '08 or '12 compare and contrast numbers, still trying to roll the '16 precinct numbers by %:



For anyone looking at the Write-In numbers, they appear to be overwhelmingly Sanders with McMullin accounting for a relatively small chunk of the WI vote-share county wide.

Trump at only 51.3% in '16 in Billings MT, makes Cheyenne WY look like an extreme-right stronghold...

Not predicting a Biden '20 flip even in a +10% Ntl Biden win, but it certainly moves us into that "down-ballot bump" for MT-SEN and MT-GOV in a quirky State...

3rd Party Votes in Billings MT in '16 are likely overwhelmingly DEM voters in '20....

Not an expert on MT, but figured I would toss at least the '16 GE PRES numbers out there, since unfortunately not able to easily run a compare/contrast (Although certainly there are items out there which would likely be able to present the data, but recently got off work, so not really invested the time on this item yet).

So--- I decided to rerun a few numbers from 2016 PRES, even after adding in the Write-In Vote raw numbers and % to attempt to match against current precinct boundaries posted on the Yellowstone County website.

https://maps.co.yellowstone.mt.gov/mapping/index.html



It appears that either my 2017 report on Billings confirmed precinct vote was either "fake news", or maybe a few precincts shifted around and split precincts muddied the waters a few % points on the margins...

Naturally we need to re-examine the actual precinct level results from Billings, Montana in 2016 and include a mixture of clear precincts within the City Limits vs the split-precincts...



If we aggregate both the Split and Non-Splits we get something like 70% of the Yellowstone County Vote Share.

Now what does the % of the Vote look line in Billings by Split Precinct / Non-Split Precinct and Total?



So parsing the Split-Precincts could easily become an exercise looking pop density and census tracts to try to create a % modelling and estimated distribution of City Nov '16 vs present maps etc...

Still, the overall assumption is that even with split-precincts that voters outside of Billings City Limits would generally tend to be more Republican (based upon '16 County Precinct numbers), so at a maximum Trump won Billings [(53.6% (R) vs 35.2% (D)] and at minimum Trump won Billings [51.4% (R) vs 37.1% (D).

Okay-- so billings split combined with non-split Billings precincts had some 49k GE PRES voters in '16...

I tried to run the numbers from the 2008 GE PRES Precincts based upon the next Mayoral Election:

https://www.co.yellowstone.mt.gov/elections/results/Archives/Precinct_Nov2009.htm

2008 GE "Billings '09 Mayoral Precincts"   (Haven't run a % of '08 vs '09 precincts yet or done Excel db style power queries---)



Okay--- did that blow your eyeballs out trying to read the skinny font?

So basically--- we got a ton of precincts in Billings in '08 that went:

Obama '08:   25,540 Votes (47.2%)
McCain '08:   27,119 Votes (50.2%%)
TOTAL '08:    54,066

Billings, Montana will be an interesting case-study...

O'bama almost won it in '08, and currently Biden is out-performing in Ntl Polls vs Obama '08 % numbers...

Atlas Hive or Independent Thoughts???

[NOVA Green]

Nevada:

Assuming #1 Las Vegas doesn't flip in 2020---   

#2 Henderson was won by Trump in '16, but not by insane margins...

Let's look at the Raw Votes in Henderson from '08 to '18 for US PRES and US SEN:



Convert to % numbers:



Look at the demographics:

Race/Ethnicity:

Anglo: 69.0%
Latino: 13.4%
Black:   5.7%
Asian:   7.9%
Mixed:  3.0%
Other:   1.0%

AGE:

Skews heavily older...

70+:    9.8%
60-69:  12.4%
50-59:   14.0%
40-49:   15.3%
30-39:   13.0%
22-29:    9.1%
18-21:    4.3%
Under 17: 22.1%

Household Income: $ 64.5k / Yr   (Pretty high for an aging City)

Occupations:



Educational Attainment:



How likely is Henderson to flip in 2020?

[SevenEleven]

Starting west of the Rockies:

Alaska: Fairbanks
Arizona: Mesa
California: Huntington Beach, Simi Valley, or Murrieta
Idaho: Meridian
Hawaii: Probably nowhere
Nevada: Henderson or Carson City
Oregon: Keizer or Grants Pass
Utah: Provo
Washington: Spokane Valley or Kennewick

You think Bakersfield won't vote for Trump? It's larger and more Republican than Huntington Beach. I actually expect HB and Simi Valley to vote Biden.

And I'm still not sold on Medford, but I would enjoy if it flipped.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Starting west of the Rockies:

Alaska: Fairbanks
Arizona: Mesa
California: Huntington Beach, Simi Valley, or Murrieta
Idaho: Meridian
Hawaii: Probably nowhere
Nevada: Henderson or Carson City
Oregon: Keizer or Grants Pass
Utah: Provo
Washington: Spokane Valley or Kennewick

You think Bakersfield won't vote for Trump? It's larger and more Republican than Huntington Beach. I actually expect HB and Simi Valley to vote Biden.

And I'm still not sold on Medford, but I would enjoy if it flipped.

I updated the list elsewhere in the thread after actually looking at precinct data. TL;DR, the biggest Trump city in CA will be Bakersfield or Visalia.