States’ largest cities that will vote for Trump.

[NOVA Green]

Arkansas:

#2 Fort Smith is a reasonable proposition for the largest city in the state to vote for Trump:

Reagente published the following based upon precinct summation:

"Arkansas

Trump wins Fort Smith (#2). Clinton evidently won Little Rock (#1).

Some bits of unincorporated Sebastian County got included in this, but I don't think very many people live in those bits.

Trump - 13,958 (54.92%)
Clinton - 9,301 (36.59%)"

So basically Fort Smith is + 18.3% Trump '16...

Now haven't looked at the 3rd Party Votes for '16 and although the City is basically a working-class factory town (14.6% of the work-force occupations are in MFG) and 21.0% of the work-force is in the MFG Industry (!!!), the population is also increasingly ethnically diverse.

Only 61% Anglo followed by 18% Latino, 9% African-American, and 6% Asian-American...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_Smith,_Arkansas

Granted again Latino % of POP does not = % of Voters and all that....

Still at minimum, Trump is only winning Fort Smith by high single digits at max in the event of an 8-10% Biden win....

Difficult to see Trump not capturing 50% of the vote here in 2020 as a floor, but strangers things have happened, and honestly working-class town like this where the kids all go the same schools that parents in their '30s and early '40s with kids in Elementary and Middle School, whose parents work in the same factories and regional medical centers, that this place might be a "lot more woke" from the roots than one might expect....

[NOVA Green]

Arizona:

#3 Mesa is the obvious safe pick here on the betting odds...

I seem to recall having done some research elsewhere on one of the Arizona election threads and:

#1 Phoenix

Something like the following (split-precincts here and there, etc...)

HRC:      276,438     (53.6%)
DJT:       201,434     (39.0%)        +14.6% DEM

On another thread the Upper-Income DEM Wealthy Anglo and educated precincts within CD-08 swung heavy DEM in the SE.... etc....

#2 Tucson:

When I ran the precinct numbers elsewhere some time back on another thread...

Tucson (Without Split Precincts)

97,403 HRC (62.2% D), 47,376 Trump (30.3% R)                         + 31.9% D

Tucson (Only Split Precincts)

28,567 HRC (54.8% D), 19,946 Trump (38.3% R)                         + 16.5% D

Total Tucson:  (including both precincts solely within City limits and split precincts that include a part of the City, as unincorporated areas outside)...

125,970 HRC (60.4% D), 67,322 (32.3% R)                              + 28.1% D


#3 Mesa:

So here are the precinct numbers I ran from Mesa in the '16 PRES GE:

HRC:      68,370     (37.0%)
DJT:       99,022      (53.5%)        +16.5% PUB

So... you got a 64% Anglo Joint with 27% Latino...

MHI only $50.6k/Yr... 

Age tracks closely AZ avg but the bulge is basically 22-34 in yrs...

Not seeing enough on the demographics here to indicate a flip, but hell a city of 470k obviously doesn't get enough detailed attention on Atlas these days....

Biden flips AZ, his road is directly like Sherman's march through Georgia sweeping through the Anglo communities of Maricopa County, plus jacking up Latino, Asian, African-American, and Native American Turnout throughout the entire State.

More than happy to see perspectives of those much more familiar with metro Phoenix than I am... Still any City in a large Metro area where Trump is only sitting in the low to mid '50s back in '16 starts to become a laser target in my eyes, especially when there are EC Votes, US-SEN Votes, as well as many other elections on the line....

[big data boi]

Massachusetts: Braintree

Nope

Largest New England towns to vote for Trump:

Massachusetts:   Dracut (Westfield and Billerica will probably flip)
Rhode Island:     Coventry
Vermont:           No major town  (Barre Town and Swanton will probably flip)
Maine:              Presque Island maybe? (Auburn and Sanford will probably flip)
Connecticut:      Southington


Edit: added other NE states

in Massachusetts it may be Westfield

Margin there was in the hundreds and Mass as a whole will probably swing to Biden with lower 3rd party vote. It'll be Dracut for sure

[NOVA Green]

California:

#9 Bakersfield:

I have mixed feelings here...

2008:

Obama (D):  45,242       (42.9%)
McCain (R):  58,602       (55.6%)
TOTAL:        105,414

2012:

Obama (D):   44,141      (42.8%)
Romney (R)   57,084      (55.3%)
TOTAL:          103,150

2016:

Clinton (D):     50,390     (44.0%)
Trump (R):      57,670     (50.4%)
TOTAL:           114,399

1.) The Democratic % of the vote increased between '08/'12 and '16, while the Republican Presidential candidate actually lost almost 5%.

2.) Perhaps more significantly, this occurred predominately because of a +6k increase in RAW DEM votes, with PUB numbers stagnant between '12 and '16.

3.) Additionally, the TOTAL votes increased by 11k between '12 and '16.

4.) What this suggests to me, is that the increase in DEM support between '12 and '16 was predominantly driven by a surge in New Voters, presumably a mixture of Latino and Younger voters.

5.) If this pattern manifests itself again in 2020, that alone might be enough to flip Bakersfield even if there are only relatively minor defections from Trump '16 voters. Plus, the 3rd Party votes should be a bit lower in 2020 with Biden the most likely beneficiary.

6.) I would not expect to see the swings as heavy in Bakersfield as large as nationally (with the caveat regarding new voters and 3rd Party 2016 voters).

If not Bakersfield, what next?

# 22 Huntington Beach?

2008:

Obama (D):  42,622       (45.3%)
McCain (R):  49,528       (52.6%)
TOTAL:         94,099

2012:

Obama (D):    37,093      (41.0%)
Romney (R):   51,166      (56.5%)
TOTAL:           90,514


2016:

Clinton (D):     40,980     (43.7%)
Trump (R):      47,007     (50.1%)
TOTAL:            93,858

The thing that really stands out here is the Trump '16 % numbers at barely over 50%.... the other thing is that Obama/Romney '12 numbers appears as a bit of an aberration heavily caused by lower DEM Turnout combined with Obama '08 > Romney '12 cross-overs.

Still it would be difficult to see Huntington Beach NOT flipping in 2020 considering the overall demographics, State of National polling etc...

If both Bakersfield AND Huntington Beach were to flip what would be the next largest city that Trump will win in 2020??

Blairite posited the following upthread....

"California: Huntington Beach, Simi Valley, or Murrieta"

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

If both Bakersfield AND Huntington Beach were to flip what would be the next largest city that Trump will win in 2020??

Blairite posited the following upthread....

"California: Huntington Beach, Simi Valley, or Murrieta"

Well, here are the possibilities now that I've actually done the precinct analysis, ranked by population in 2010 (DJT 2016 vote share):

23. Huntington Beach (50.2%)
24. Santa Clarita (45.0%)
25. Garden Grove (32.3%)
26. Santa Rosa (21.3%)
27. Oceanside (42.5%)
28. Rancho Cucamonga (45.3%)
29. Ontario (30.5%)
30. Lancaster (41.1%)
31. Elk Grove (33.6%)
32. Palmdale (31.7%)
33. Corona (46.0%)
34. Salinas (22.0%)
35. Pomona (21%)
36. Torrance (37.0%)
37. Hayward (15.2%)
38. Escondido (44.3%)
39. Sunnyvale (18.3%)
40. Pasadena (19.0%)
41. Fullerton (39.2%)
42. Orange (45.1%)
43. Thousand Oaks (42.5%)
44. Visalia (55.1%)
45. Simi Valley (49.0%)
46. Concord (27.7%)
47. Roseville (50.4%)
48. Santa Clara (20.4%)
49. Vallejo (18.5%)
50. Victorville (39.0%)
51. El Monte (17.1%)
52. Berkeley (3.2%)
53. Downey (25.2%)
54. Costa Mesa (41.6%)
55. Inglewood (5.3%)
56. Ventura (34.5%)
57. West Covina (28.3%)
58. Norwalk (21.0%)
59. Carlsbad (41.7%)
60. Fairfield (30.4%)
61. Richmond (6.7%)
62. Murrieta (58.1%)

So my money is on Visalia. Of the cities where DJT got over half the vote, Huntington Beach and Roseville are basically guaranteed flips and I doubt Visalia flips (making Murrieta #1.) Of course, this assumes Bakersfield goes for Biden in the first place.

[NOVA Green]

If both Bakersfield AND Huntington Beach were to flip what would be the next largest city that Trump will win in 2020??

Blairite posited the following upthread....

"California: Huntington Beach, Simi Valley, or Murrieta"

Well, here are the possibilities now that I've actually done the precinct analysis, ranked by population in 2010 (DJT 2016 vote share):

23. Huntington Beach (50.2%)
24. Santa Clarita (45.0%)
25. Garden Grove (32.3%)
26. Santa Rosa (21.3%)
27. Oceanside (42.5%)
28. Rancho Cucamonga (45.3%)
29. Ontario (30.5%)
30. Lancaster (41.1%)
31. Elk Grove (33.6%)
32. Palmdale (31.7%)
33. Corona (46.0%)
34. Salinas (22.0%)
35. Pomona (21%)
36. Torrance (37.0%)
37. Hayward (15.2%)
38. Escondido (44.3%)
39. Sunnyvale (18.3%)
40. Pasadena (19.0%)
41. Fullerton (39.2%)
42. Orange (45.1%)
43. Thousand Oaks (42.5%)
44. Visalia (55.1%)
45. Simi Valley (49.0%)
46. Concord (27.7%)
47. Roseville (50.4%)
48. Santa Clara (20.4%)
49. Vallejo (18.5%)
50. Victorville (39.0%)
51. El Monte (17.1%)
52. Berkeley (3.2%)
53. Downey (25.2%)
54. Costa Mesa (41.6%)
55. Inglewood (5.3%)
56. Ventura (34.5%)
57. West Covina (28.3%)
58. Norwalk (21.0%)
59. Carlsbad (41.7%)
60. Fairfield (30.4%)
61. Richmond (6.7%)
62. Murrieta (58.1%)

So my money is on Visalia. Of the cities where DJT got over half the vote, Huntington Beach and Roseville are basically guaranteed flips and I doubt Visalia flips (making Murrieta #1.) Of course, this assumes Bakersfield goes for Biden in the first place.

So basically you are on the same groove vibe that if the Bakersfield Freiwall collapses we are gonna roll all the way down to # 44 Vasalia?

Despite being majority-minority Latino (48%) and only (41%) Anglo, def looks like a place where the boss and the foremen own the area that vote tend to go PUB...

Interestingly enough Health Care and Education are a huge chunk of the workforce compared to CA avg numbers...

Looks like tons of workers in the City aren't voters for various reasons?

[danny]

New Jersey: Toms River?

Lakewood has more people and gave Trump 74% in 2016.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

If both Bakersfield AND Huntington Beach were to flip what would be the next largest city that Trump will win in 2020??

Blairite posited the following upthread....

"California: Huntington Beach, Simi Valley, or Murrieta"

Well, here are the possibilities now that I've actually done the precinct analysis, ranked by population in 2010 (DJT 2016 vote share):

23. Huntington Beach (50.2%)
24. Santa Clarita (45.0%)
25. Garden Grove (32.3%)
26. Santa Rosa (21.3%)
27. Oceanside (42.5%)
28. Rancho Cucamonga (45.3%)
29. Ontario (30.5%)
30. Lancaster (41.1%)
31. Elk Grove (33.6%)
32. Palmdale (31.7%)
33. Corona (46.0%)
34. Salinas (22.0%)
35. Pomona (21%)
36. Torrance (37.0%)
37. Hayward (15.2%)
38. Escondido (44.3%)
39. Sunnyvale (18.3%)
40. Pasadena (19.0%)
41. Fullerton (39.2%)
42. Orange (45.1%)
43. Thousand Oaks (42.5%)
44. Visalia (55.1%)
45. Simi Valley (49.0%)
46. Concord (27.7%)
47. Roseville (50.4%)
48. Santa Clara (20.4%)
49. Vallejo (18.5%)
50. Victorville (39.0%)
51. El Monte (17.1%)
52. Berkeley (3.2%)
53. Downey (25.2%)
54. Costa Mesa (41.6%)
55. Inglewood (5.3%)
56. Ventura (34.5%)
57. West Covina (28.3%)
58. Norwalk (21.0%)
59. Carlsbad (41.7%)
60. Fairfield (30.4%)
61. Richmond (6.7%)
62. Murrieta (58.1%)

So my money is on Visalia. Of the cities where DJT got over half the vote, Huntington Beach and Roseville are basically guaranteed flips and I doubt Visalia flips (making Murrieta #1.) Of course, this assumes Bakersfield goes for Biden in the first place.

So basically you are on the same groove vibe that if the Bakersfield Freiwall collapses we are gonna roll all the way down to # 44 Visalia?

Yep.

[Roll Roons]

New Jersey: Toms River?

Lakewood has more people and gave Trump 74% in 2016.

Yeah, it'll 100% be Lakewood. The large Orthodox Jewish population makes it extremely Republican.

[NOVA Green]

Alaska:

Anchorage is really trippy, since I'm not sure the exact % and Raw Votes in '16 in Anchorage (Even if we adjust for precinct splits) mainly bcs of how absentee ballots situation being wrapped into AK CD's....

Best guess I could find when I initially took a look at a few years back was 47-53 Trump in '16 as a % of two part vote, but honestly the City deserves a deeper dive, since I never totally went back and re-parsed....



If we know the "Baseline Numbers" from '16 for Anchorage, it will help inform our current assessment of the GE PRES Election in AK based upon Ntl and Statewide polling, and multiple other variables and fuel further debate and discussion...

Let's figure out the exact 2016 PRES GE numbers from Anchorage, and then start the discussion??

So I decided to go back and revisit Anchorage Alaska precinct numbers from the 2016 PRES GE from official election sources...   (Go there and you grab all of the GE State & Federal Numbers in a Text based file, which then you can convert into Excel using a Text to Columns conversion.)

https://www.elections.alaska.gov/results/16GENR/data/resultsbyprct.txt

In order to code precincts as Anchorage precincts I used the 2018 Mayoral Election results.... 

(Pull up the 2018 Regular Election of SOVC)

http://www.muni.org/Departments/Assembly/Clerk/Elections/Pages/ResultsAndHistory.aspx

(There is a chance that City precincts changed between 2014 and 2018 and added more precincts to the City, and I did not attempt to match Anchorage Mayoral results from 4/7/15 election and the 5/5/15 Mayoral runoff against 2018 Mayoral Precincts).

Also, I did not thoroughly investigate the possibility of split-precinct results, although an initial scan appeared to show TVs for '18 Mayoral closing tracking RV numbers...

After doing the text to columns command and filtering and sorting the data coding by municipality, the next step was to run the raw vote numbers by PRES by precinct...

So basically this includes all precincts within Alaskan House districts #12 > #28, with the exception of four precincts in Alaskan HD #12:

Fairview No. 1"
Fairview No. 2"
Snowshoe"
Butte"

Anchorage Alaska 2016 PRES GE "Election Day Votes"

Registered Voters (RV):     216,679

Clinton (D):        32,130      (39.3%)
Trump  (R):        39,942      (48.9%)         + 9.6% PUB
Johnson (L):        5,110       ( 6.3%)
Write-In:             2,220       ( 2.7%)
Jill Stein (G):       1,311       ( 1.6%)
Castle:   (C):          660       ( 0.8%)
"Rocky":                305       ( 0.4%)
TOTAL:               81,678                          (37.7% of RV)

Anchorage Alaska 2016 PRES GE "Absentee Ballot Votes"

Methodology here was to include all Absentee Ballots for House Districts #13 > #28, since all of the AK House District precincts fall within Anchorage 2018 Mayoral precincts:

Clinton (D):        8,209        (40.6%)
Trump  (R):        9,631        (47.6%)         + 7.0% PUB
Johnson (L):       1,292        (6.4%)
Write-In:              665         (3.3%)
Jill Stein (G):        264         (1.3%)
Castle:   (C):        121         (0.6%)
"Rocky":                65         (0.3%)
TOTAL:               20,237                          (9.3% of RV)

Now, time to combine the Anchorage Alaska "same-day" precinct results with the Alaskan House District Absentee results for HD #13-28...

Clinton (D):        40,339      (39.6%)
Trump  (R):        49,573      (48.6%)         + 9.0% PUB
Johnson (L):        6,402        (6.3%)
Write-In:             2,885        (2.8%)
Jill Stein (G):       1,575        (1.5%)
Castle:   (C):          781       ( 0.8%)
"Rocky":                370        (0.8%)
TOTAL:               101,925                          (47.0% of RV)

So what's missing??

Alaska HD #12 Absentee Ballots...

2,382 Total PRES Ballots....

PUB:   1,610    (67.6%)   
HRC:    574     (24.1%)

Let's look at the "same-day ballots" by precincts located within the city of Anchorage:

5,678 TOT within Alaska HD-12 and only 43% located within the Anchorage Municipal Boundaries.

Let's extrapolate the HD #12 Absentee ballots and say only 43% are within the City limits= 1,024 Total Votes....

Even if we say that they break down heavily PUB (HD #12 precincts same day were 530 HRC (21.9%) and 1,588 DJT (65.5%) out of 2,423 TVs) it doesn't really shift the total vote % too much further in Trump's direction...

Hypothetical AK HD #12 Absentee Split:

HRC:    224 Votes (21.9%)
DJT:     671 Votes (65.5%)

TOTAL= 1,024

So, I could go back and add these hypothetical absentee #s from HD #12 into the Total Vote (TV) for Anchorage, but even there would just be a few fractions of a % on the total margins...

Now--- if we really want to go into the weeds, I could parse Precinct 999 (Herman Cain style) for the International Absentee Ballots for Alaska (342 Total) and try to assign them to place as % of Vote, but honestly why bother?   

What does this mean for 2020??

All things considered, after re-examining the 2016 DEM PRES baseline in Anchorage, I am becoming more and more convinced that Anchorage will flip in 2020 in the event that Biden wins the National Popular Vote by somewhere in the area of +8%...

Trump only bagged 48.6% in '16 with HRC hitting 39.6%...

Meanwhile look at the 3rd Party Votes...

Write-In ballots in '16 were overwhelmingly Sanders and to a much lesser extent McMullin in places with higher % of LDS adherents...

Sure Donald Duck, Micky Mouse, and even Bozo the Clown accrue write-in votes every election in WI states but...

Johnson voters in the West (and likely elsewhere) tend to skew heavily Millennial Anglo and Trump is simply in the rear-view window, even among the Ron Paul Lbt types...

Now idea about Green Voters in Anchorage, since Alaska (Like Oregon) has had a strong an established Green Party for over 20 Years, plus Native Rights issues might have stood up stronger, even in the City, because of significant DEM Establishment support for the Keystone Pipeline and Stein was obviously on the radar as a Presidential Election Candidate willing to get arrested through non-violent civil disobedience to protect Native Rights...

*Rant Aside*, I strongly doubt that even if Trump holds onto most of his '16 voters that he will win Anchorage....

We have seen polls of Alaska showing it within potentially only a +5% Trump lead and based upon my precinct level looks at the '16 GE, Anchorage rolls to the left of the State...

Posters forecasting Fairbanks as Trump's biggest city win in Alaska are likely in a good betting odds scene within the context of historical results as well National and Statewide polling numbers...

[NOVA Green]

Starting west of the Rockies:

Alaska: Fairbanks
Arizona: Mesa
California: Huntington Beach, Simi Valley, or Murrieta
Idaho: Meridian
Hawaii: Probably nowhere
Nevada: Henderson or Carson City
Oregon: Keizer or Grants Pass
Utah: Provo
Washington: Spokane Valley or Kennewick

Not only the first reply to the OP, but also quite possibly the most accurate prediction for the State's listed.... (Although I did ask question about CA where really based upon a few recent CA PRES polls PUBs could be wiped out even in unexpected places)...

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I believe Trump won Clarksville, TN in 2016, and I suspect he will do it again.  Trends from the 2020 Congressional primaries looked pretty favorable in Montgomery County.  If Biden wins Clarksville, he'll probably also be winning Knoxville and Murfreesboro, which would leave Franklin as the largest city in Tennessee to vote for Trump.

[NOVA Green]

I believe Trump won Clarksville, TN in 2016, and I suspect he will do it again.  Trends from the 2020 Congressional primaries looked pretty favorable in Montgomery County.  If Biden wins Clarksville, he'll probably also be winning Knoxville and Murfreesboro, which would leave Franklin as the largest city in Tennessee to vote for Trump.

Hello Friend--- long time no chat!

You ran the precinct numbers from Clarksville a few years back on another thread on the 2016 GE results and placed it as 49.4% Trump and 44.4% HRC...

So curious about your thoughts on Clarksville since if Biden ends up winning nationally by +6-8% at min it looks like the type of joint which should flip.

Why do you suspect Trump will hold Clarksville in 2020?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=272471.msg5832944#msg5832944

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I believe Trump won Clarksville, TN in 2016, and I suspect he will do it again.  Trends from the 2020 Congressional primaries looked pretty favorable in Montgomery County.  If Biden wins Clarksville, he'll probably also be winning Knoxville and Murfreesboro, which would leave Franklin as the largest city in Tennessee to vote for Trump.

Hello Friend--- long time no chat!

You ran the precinct numbers from Clarksville a few years back on another thread on the 2016 GE results and placed it as 49.4% Trump and 44.4% HRC...

So curious about your thoughts on Clarksville since if Biden ends up winning nationally by +6-8% at min it looks like the type of joint which should flip.

Why do you suspect Trump will hold Clarksville in 2020?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=272471.msg5832944#msg5832944

I haven't updated it yet for the Election Day results, but I looked at our congressional primary turnout by county, comparing it to the Trump-Clinton numbers.  Statewide, Tennessee voted for Trump by 26 points, and Republican primary voters outnumbered Democratic ones by 24 points (as we have open primaries, there isn't a registration bias).  So, TN swung left by 2 points.  On the other hand, Montgomery County, where Clarksville is, went right from Trump +18 to Republicans +30, a very significant swing right.  I do recognize that local factors can influence the numbers somewhat (i.e. Davidson swinging super far left due to a competitive Democratic primary for TN-5), but it's still a worthwhile exercise.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=384444.msg7491155#msg7491155

[NOVA Green]

So for anyone interested... here is a summary of Atlas contributions regarding the largest City by State which Trump won in ;16...

I took the various % numbers from 2016, recognizing that in some places order of POP might shift and all that... to make it easier to research

[NOVA Green]

Washington State:

I believe #11 Spokane Valley would be the correct answer.

Here is how Cities in Washington State voted in 2016:



I would be surprised if #10 Yakima does not flip in 2020, considering that Trump was not only under 50%, but also a large number of 3rd Party votes in 2016.

There is little reason to suspect that Spokane Valley would resemble the type of place to overcome 1 +16.8% Trump win in 2016...

[mileslunn]

Washington State:

I believe #11 Spokane Valley would be the correct answer.

Here is how Cities in Washington State voted in 2016:



I would be surprised if #10 Yakima does not flip in 2020, considering that Trump was not only under 50%, but also a large number of 3rd Party votes in 2016.

There is little reason to suspect that Spokane Valley would resemble the type of place to overcome 1 +16.8% Trump win in 2016...

Surprised Clinton won by almost ten points in Spokane, thought it would be closer.  I guess suburbs and rural areas went heavily for Trump.  Bellevue and other Seattle suburbs very interesting as Bush in 2004 got over 40% in most of those so strong swing away from GOP there.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Washington State:

I believe #11 Spokane Valley would be the correct answer.

Here is how Cities in Washington State voted in 2016:



I would be surprised if #10 Yakima does not flip in 2020, considering that Trump was not only under 50%, but also a large number of 3rd Party votes in 2016.

There is little reason to suspect that Spokane Valley would resemble the type of place to overcome 1 +16.8% Trump win in 2016...

Surprised Clinton won by almost ten points in Spokane, thought it would be closer.  I guess suburbs and rural areas went heavily for Trump.  Bellevue and other Seattle suburbs very interesting as Bush in 2004 got over 40% in most of those so strong swing away from GOP there.

Yeah. It's crazy to see Bellevue swing from Gore around 55% in 2000 to Biden being presumably over 75% this time around. Not something you see much discussion of because King County has always been safe blue, but the Eastside has realigned as hard as any suburban area in the country.

[mileslunn]

Washington State:

I believe #11 Spokane Valley would be the correct answer.

Here is how Cities in Washington State voted in 2016:



I would be surprised if #10 Yakima does not flip in 2020, considering that Trump was not only under 50%, but also a large number of 3rd Party votes in 2016.

There is little reason to suspect that Spokane Valley would resemble the type of place to overcome 1 +16.8% Trump win in 2016...

Surprised Clinton won by almost ten points in Spokane, thought it would be closer.  I guess suburbs and rural areas went heavily for Trump.  Bellevue and other Seattle suburbs very interesting as Bush in 2004 got over 40% in most of those so strong swing away from GOP there.

Yeah. It's crazy to see Bellevue swing from Gore around 55% in 2000 to Biden being presumably over 75% this time around. Not something you see much discussion of because King County has always been safe blue, but the Eastside has realigned as hard as any suburban area in the country.

East side of King County is fairly affluent so should be good to GOP, but very educated.  A lot of people in the tech sector so as GOP has become more populists and anti-science really hurt them there.  Also on demographics too, its a mix of lots of college educated whites, but also Asians and those were groups GOP used to do well amongst but have swung hard against them since. 

Darien, Connecticut another example of this as Romney got 65% in 2012 but then Trump only got 41% in 2016.  Generally found a lot of the wealthiest areas and areas with lots of college educated whites saw big swings away from GOP.  Trump on other hand saw similar swings in his favour amongst blue collar whites and since latter were in right states it worked in his favour.

[Yoda]

For Ohio, my guess would be Findlay. The wannabe dictator has zero chance in the three C's, Toledo, Dayton, Akron, Canton, Youngstown.

[Hope For A New Era]

Jefferson City is pretty R. So probably that (though Galloway won it in 2018, so...)

[MarkD]

Jefferson City is pretty R. So probably that (though Galloway won it in 2018, so...)

You don't think Springfield will vote for Trump again?

[Hope For A New Era]

Jefferson City is pretty R. So probably that (though Galloway won it in 2018, so...)

You don't think Springfield will vote for Trump again?

Jeff City is the smallest "nearly-certain R." I think Springfield is a coin flip this year, with maybe a slight lean toward Trump. Galloway has a good chance of winning it - the question is if Biden will. The results of the Medicaid referendum are encouraging.

[NOVA Green]

Spokane is difficult to pin down as we don’t have city wide voting data but the county did vote for Trump by like 9 points in 2016 so I could see Spokane supporting Trump.

Well to be fair we do have access to precinct results by precinct for various elections which if one downloads the package and unzips the file can select precinct level data for all of Washington State...

https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/election-results-and-voters-pamphlets.aspx

Select your election then roll over and click on the "data file" and it will start the WinZip download...

Doesn't look like you can grab the '08 precinct data-set from there, but looks like at least the '12 and '16 precinct results are there...

I believe I have '08 precinct results floating around somewhere, as well as a '00 precinct data-set for Washington State and possibly nationally, but I digress...

Either way... hardest part with this type of gig is doing precinct coding if it is not evident to match precincts against municipal boundaries....

Fortunately places like Spokane don't trip around too much with lines, even after redistricting, so coding County Precincts that don't have maps that clearly delineated is more of a question of matching Mayoral and Municipal results to identify precincts within city limits (split-precincts are MUCH more of a Pain-in-the-arse to deal with, but not a major deal here).

[NOVA Green]

Jefferson City is pretty R. So probably that (though Galloway won it in 2018, so...)

You don't think Springfield will vote for Trump again?

Jeff City is the smallest "nearly-certain R." I think Springfield is a coin flip this year, with maybe a slight lean toward Trump. Galloway has a good chance of winning it - the question is if Biden will. The results of the Medicaid referendum are encouraging.

Do you have a good break on Springfield '16 PRES Election numbers?

I believe I ran into a bit of a brink wall with Absentee voting numbers, Write-In Ballots, etc when I looked at the data a couple years back from Springfield '16...

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=272471.msg5818175#msg5818175

Might be interesting to parse precinct results from Springfield over a few election cycles, since looks extremely unlikely to flip, but without some comparative baseline true raw vote numbers, makes it extremely difficult to get a handle on...

Not that I believe Springfield, MO will flip Biden in '20, let alone MO, but certainly a fruitful line of inquiry....  You seem to have a local handle on the subject, so curious about your take on matters...