Rate Loudoun County Virginia

[jamestroll]

I have placed all viable options in this poll.

Sanders by 7 to 10.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Safe D though again by a lesser margin than Hillary. In a worst-case scenario for the Dems  , Bernie only wins this by single digits which would cost him VA

[Tekken_Guy]

Bernie will win by about 20. I don’t see him doing as bad as people think in the suburbs when Donald Freaking Trump is his opponent.

[MT Treasurer]

Lean R.

Bookmark this thread, quote and mock the "Lean R." part of this post the day after the election when it’s clear that Sanders won it by more than Clinton, and cite it to prove that "Atlas" and IndyRep told you that Bernie would lose Loudoun County, Virginia.

[jamestroll]

Lean R.

Bookmark this thread, quote and mock the "Lean R." part of this post the day after the election when it’s clear that Sanders won it by more than Clinton, and cite it to prove that "Atlas" and IndyRep told you that Bernie would lose Loudoun County, Virginia.

Notice that I did not even include Lean R as an option here.

In fact there is a better chance of Missouri voting for Bernie Sanders than Fairfax/Loudoun/Prince William voting for Trump. Much better.


But there will be a pro-Trump swing.

[Tekken_Guy]

Lean R.

Bookmark this thread, quote and mock the "Lean R." part of this post the day after the election when it’s clear that Sanders won it by more than Clinton, and cite it to prove that "Atlas" and IndyRep told you that Bernie would lose Loudoun County, Virginia.

Notice that I did not even include Lean R as an option here.

In fact there is a better chance of Missouri voting for Bernie Sanders than Fairfax/Loudoun/Prince William voting for Trump. Much better.


But there will be a pro-Trump swing.

What kind of people that voted Clinton would support Trump?

[Roll Roons]

Lean R.

Bookmark this thread, quote and mock the "Lean R." part of this post the day after the election when it’s clear that Sanders won it by more than Clinton, and cite it to prove that "Atlas" and IndyRep told you that Bernie would lose Loudoun County, Virginia.

Notice that I did not even include Lean R as an option here.

In fact there is a better chance of Missouri voting for Bernie Sanders than Fairfax/Loudoun/Prince William voting for Trump. Much better.


But there will be a pro-Trump swing.

What kind of people that voted Clinton would support Trump?

Affluent suburbanites who don't like Trump's behavior but are happy with the economy and think Bernie is too far left. If he gets the nomination, I have a feeling a lot of the upscale suburban districts that flipped in 2018 (IL-06, NJ-07, NJ-11, VA-10, PA-06, CO-06, MN-03, GA-06, MI-11, TX-07, the OC seats) will swing R at the presidential and House levels.

[SN2903]

Tilt D

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Lean R.

Bookmark this thread, quote and mock the "Lean R." part of this post the day after the election when it’s clear that Sanders won it by more than Clinton, and cite it to prove that "Atlas" and IndyRep told you that Bernie would lose Loudoun County, Virginia.

Notice that I did not even include Lean R as an option here.

In fact there is a better chance of Missouri voting for Bernie Sanders than Fairfax/Loudoun/Prince William voting for Trump. Much better.


But there will be a pro-Trump swing.

What kind of people that voted Clinton would support Trump?

Affluent suburbanites who don't like Trump's behavior but are happy with the economy and think Bernie is too far left.

Have you met DMV suburbans?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lean R.

Bookmark this thread, quote and mock the "Lean R." part of this post the day after the election when it’s clear that Sanders won it by more than Clinton, and cite it to prove that "Atlas" and IndyRep told you that Bernie would lose Loudoun County, Virginia.

Notice that I did not even include Lean R as an option here.

In fact there is a better chance of Missouri voting for Bernie Sanders than Fairfax/Loudoun/Prince William voting for Trump. Much better.


But there will be a pro-Trump swing.

What kind of people that voted Clinton would support Trump?

Affluent suburbanites who don't like Trump's behavior but are happy with the economy and think Bernie is too far left.

Ah yes, because the 2018 midterms showed that the suburbs are MAGA country!

[Politics Fan]

Safe D, has trending consistently and strongly Democrat for the last 4 elections. Even Sanders isn't a terrible fit for the counties many government employees and other locals who are indirectly connected to the Federal Government. Not to mention the strong social liberal bend to Loudoun that makes it a terrible fit for Trump and a good fit for Sanders.

[Roll Roons]

Lean R.

Bookmark this thread, quote and mock the "Lean R." part of this post the day after the election when it’s clear that Sanders won it by more than Clinton, and cite it to prove that "Atlas" and IndyRep told you that Bernie would lose Loudoun County, Virginia.

Notice that I did not even include Lean R as an option here.

In fact there is a better chance of Missouri voting for Bernie Sanders than Fairfax/Loudoun/Prince William voting for Trump. Much better.


But there will be a pro-Trump swing.

What kind of people that voted Clinton would support Trump?

Affluent suburbanites who don't like Trump's behavior but are happy with the economy and think Bernie is too far left.

Ah yes, because the 2018 midterms showed that the suburbs are MAGA country!

I'm not saying they'll go full MAGA by any means. I just think they might swing slightly to the right, and there might be somewhat of a "Bradley" effect where some people secretly hold their noses and vote for Trump. 

[Xing]

I dunno man, I think the rate of socialistphobia is higher here than any other county, except possibly Orange.

[jamestroll]

Researching a bit more.. I would place it at a Sanders win of 11 to 13 rather than 9 to 10.

[ElectionsGuy]

I do think Bernie will win this very wealthy county by less than Clinton did, but I still think he'll win it by a decent amount, at least upper single digits.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Safe D, but by 8 or so points instead of 17

[SN2903]

I do think Bernie will win this very wealthy county by less than Clinton did, but I still think he'll win it by a decent amount, at least upper single digits.

I think more like 5-6

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I do think Bernie will win this very wealthy county by less than Clinton did, but I still think he'll win it by a decent amount, at least upper single digits.

I think more like 5-6

This is a county full of Deep Staters who owe their prosperity to the SWAMP, which they are terrified TRUMP will drain even more. Big Government Bernie would protect them if he somehow got elected (lol).

Loudoun goes +15 or more for Bernie, even with TRUMP winning the good working and military people of the state.

[538Electoral]

Safe D

[Progressive Pessimist]

Another Virginia thread with a foregone likely/safe D answer, how unique!

[Non Swing Voter]

This thread aged well

[jamestroll]

This thread aged well

Sanders would have carried Loudoun County for sure. Not with 61% though but the margin in Loudoun relative to 2016 would not have dropped as dramatically as the Fairfax margin.

[Pericles]

I said that Sanders would not actually do worse in these types of counties than Clinton, trends are too strong. He simply wouldn't get the gains he'd need to beat WWC trends in swing states. Biden won it by 25 points, I don't think Sanders would have done 10 or more points worse. It's a similar story to the 2019 UK election, while the dynamics there were different, in heavily Remain seats the Labour margin over the Tories did not change much from 2017 (and was up a lot on 2015), Labour just needed to make gains there to make up for getting smashed in Leave seats.

[Non Swing Voter]

This thread aged well

Sanders would have carried Loudoun County for sure. Not with 61% though but the margin in Loudoun relative to 2016 would not have dropped as dramatically as the Fairfax margin.

Correct.   Loudoun has fewer swing voters than Fairfax even though the margin is tighter (for now).  It's rather funny that everyone just assumed Sanders would be the nominee.