Most surprising Biden county?

[GregTheGreat657]

What county (s) did Biden do better than you were expecting?

[Alben Barkley]

Maybe Talbot, MD or Inyo, CA.

[BaldEagle1991]

Tarrant County TX flipping was a surprise

[Calthrina950]

Inyo County, California. That was not a county which I expected Biden to flip.

[Schiff for Senate]

The Eastern California flips. Inyo in particular was just completely random - 1.8 people a square mile, more than 75% non-Hispanic white and voted for Trump by 13 percent in 2016, and more than by what Romney won by. It suddenly and narrowly flipping blue with no demographic explanation or any clear prior trends even as CA swung marginally rightward was just strange.

Tarrant County TX flipping was a surprise

Well it was an urban county trending leftward with plenty of potential for Democrats. The demographics and trends rendered it not overly surprising.

[GregTheGreat657]

The Eastern California flips. Inyo in particular was just completely random - 1.8 people a square mile, more than 75% non-Hispanic white and voted for Trump by 13 percent in 2016, and more than by what Romney won by. It suddenly and narrowly flipping blue with no demographic explanation or any clear prior trends even as CA swung marginally rightward was just strange.

Tarrant County TX flipping was a surprise

Well it was an urban county trending leftward with plenty of potential for Democrats. The demographics and trends rendered it not overly surprising.

Rich woke white people voting from their vacation homes?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The Eastern California flips. Inyo in particular was just completely random - 1.8 people a square mile, more than 75% non-Hispanic white and voted for Trump by 13 percent in 2016, and more than by what Romney won by. It suddenly and narrowly flipping blue with no demographic explanation or any clear prior trends even as CA swung marginally rightward was just strange.

Tarrant County TX flipping was a surprise

Well it was an urban county trending leftward with plenty of potential for Democrats. The demographics and trends rendered it not overly surprising.

Rich woke white people voting from their vacation homes?

The answer I got from somebody in the democratic party there is basicaly the democratic party started existing after 2016 in the county compared to being previously non-existent. Imagine organization has a big effect if you're starting from having literary no prescence.

Ah, I understand. Yes, compared to 2016, it is a larger swing. I’d say the primary difference is that there was literally no Democratic Central Committee in Inyo county in 2016. The state party did not offer assistance, and so it was re-formed from the ground up. I became involved in 2017, and it has met monthly ever since. We did GOTV, attended the state conventions, connected with other DCCs in neighboring counties, and new Regional and state party leadership really helped us get going with access to voter databases for targeted voter registration walks and postcard mailers.

Inyo also benefited from a very capable county clerk/registrar, who, while extremely non-partisan, was a relentless advocate for voting access, fought disinformation on social media, was was fanatically transparent and held numerous informative town halls in every Inyo town/city. She presented at the schools, public events, and really helped voters understand every step of the process. By the time Trump began to claim voter fraud, Kammi Foote had educated Inyo voters that the avenues for fraud were vanishingly small. Observers at polling places had nothing to claim, even anecdotally. Sadly, she has been recruited by a Federal agency for voter advocacy, and Ms McMurtrie will replace her at the county level.

It also didn’t help that the past administration’s rhetoric and policies were so openly distasteful that enough reasonable republicans found it off putting enough to either vote for Biden, or at least not vote for Trump.

Probably a confluence of all of those factors.

[SaneDemocrat]

Lake County,CA

[Hope For A New Era]

I mean, it has to be Talbot and Inyo.


I'd also like to point to the almost-flip of Dallas, IA though. There's barely any suburbanization in that county! It's literally just Waukee and then farmland. I have no idea how it got so close. Even if Biden had won Iowa as polls showed I would have expected that county to just be a narrow win. Not that I'm complaining.

[Non Swing Voter]

Pretty much everywhere in Colorado but especially El Paso county.

[Calthrina950]

Pretty much everywhere in Colorado but especially El Paso county.

Biden didn't win El Paso County, but he was the first Democratic presidential candidate in 56 years, since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, to receive more than 40% of the vote here. El Paso County could very well flip Democratic sometime in the next 20-30 years. But yes, I too was shocked by how well Biden did in Colorado last year.

[perpetual_cynic]

Pretty much everywhere in Colorado but especially El Paso county.

Biden didn't win El Paso County, but he was the first Democratic presidential candidate in 56 years, since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, to receive more than 40% of the vote here. El Paso County could very well flip Democratic sometime in the next 20-30 years. But yes, I too was shocked by how well Biden did in Colorado last year.

20-30 years? I think more like 12-16 years.

[Calthrina950]

Pretty much everywhere in Colorado but especially El Paso county.

Biden didn't win El Paso County, but he was the first Democratic presidential candidate in 56 years, since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, to receive more than 40% of the vote here. El Paso County could very well flip Democratic sometime in the next 20-30 years. But yes, I too was shocked by how well Biden did in Colorado last year.

20-30 years? I think more like 12-16 years.

You may be right. I was providing a broad time frame.

[DINGO Joe]

I mean, it has to be Talbot and Inyo.


I'd also like to point to the almost-flip of Dallas, IA though. There's barely any suburbanization in that county! It's literally just Waukee and then farmland. I have no idea how it got so close. Even if Biden had won Iowa as polls showed I would have expected that county to just be a narrow win. Not that I'm complaining.

Population grew more than 40% for the decade, so there's definitely suburbanization going on.  I expected it to flip

[Wormless Gourd]

I didn't think Biden would flip two(nearly three) eastern shore counties in Maryland or three counties in Kansas.

[Sol]

I didn't think Biden would flip two(nearly three) eastern shore counties in Maryland or three counties in Kansas.

In fairness, Kent was a pretty obvious flip in a strong Dem performance.

[Mr. Smith]

Lake County,CA

Why?  It's got the wine country economy and Trump f*(ked it over when all the wildfires were going.

[Skill and Chance]

Tarrant County TX flipping was a surprise

Was it?  It already flipped for Beto in 2018.  If you told me Trump's statewide margin in Texas, I might be somewhat surprised Tarrant flipped, but most people expected a closer statewide race anyway. 

[Xing]

Definitely Inyo. I would've thought Placer would be more likely to flip.