Flips projected at poll closing time
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  Flips projected at poll closing time
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Author Topic: Flips projected at poll closing time  (Read 728 times)
Plankton5165
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« on: August 05, 2020, 09:19:50 PM »
« edited: August 26, 2020, 06:42:54 PM by Plankton5165 »

The first one, 1992, is really extremely large.

1992:
Arkansas goes to Clinton
California goes to Clinton
Colorado goes to Clinton
Connecticut goes to Clinton
Georgia goes to Clinton
Illinois goes to Clinton
Maine goes to Clinton
Maryland goes to Clinton
Michigan goes to Clinton
Missouri goes to Clinton
New Hampshire goes to Clinton
New Jersey goes to Clinton
New Mexico goes to Clinton
Pennsylvania goes to Clinton
Vermont goes to Clinton

1996:
Florida goes to Clinton

2000:
Kentucky goes to Bush
Louisiana goes to Bush

2004:
N/A

2008:
Iowa goes to Obama

2012:
Indiana goes to Romney (some networks)

2016:
N/A
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Computer89
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« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2020, 09:42:32 PM »

Michigan is the only possibility
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #2 on: August 05, 2020, 09:53:29 PM »
« Edited: August 05, 2020, 09:57:56 PM by Calthrina950 »

In 1976, the networks projected Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee, and West Virginia for Jimmy Carter at poll closing time; all six of those states, obviously, had voted by massive landslide margins for Richard Nixon just four years earlier. The shifts in Arkansas and Georgia were particularly dramatic; Arkansas went from 69% Nixon to 64% Carter, and Georgia from 75% Nixon to 67% Carter. The native-son effect within the South which Carter had in that election handed him the Presidency.

In 1964, Vermont was called for Lyndon B. Johnson at poll closing time. Johnson of course, was the first Democrat ever to carry this powerfully Republican state, which had never voted Democratic since the founding of the modern Party in 1828 (it had voted National Republican, Whig, and Know-Nothing before the Republican Party's formation in 1854). Richard Nixon had won the state with 59% of the vote in the previous election; Johnson carried it with 66%!
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #3 on: August 05, 2020, 09:57:18 PM »

There's also 1972, where Richard Nixon was projected as the winner in New York, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Maine, Hawaii, and Maryland as soon as polls closed; all those states had voted for Hubert Humphrey in 1968. Nixon was also projected the winner at closing time in all of the states won by George Wallace: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, and Louisiana, crushing George McGovern in all of these states as the Wallace vote virtually unanimously transferred to him.
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Computer89
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« Reply #4 on: August 05, 2020, 10:48:24 PM »

1980 is weird cause the networks called the states at different times, like NBC called the election at 8:15 ET, ABC called it right before Carter conceded and CBS after it
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #5 on: August 07, 2020, 07:54:45 AM »

Vermont was called for Clinton in '92 at the close.

Pretty sure every Carter '80 state (except Minnesota) went to Reagan in '84 right away.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #6 on: August 07, 2020, 11:00:59 AM »

Vermont was called for Clinton in '92 at the close.

Pretty sure every Carter '80 state (except Minnesota) went to Reagan in '84 right away.

I’d think Rhode Island would have taken a while given the close margin there.
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Plankton5165
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« Reply #7 on: August 26, 2020, 06:42:34 PM »

Vermont was called for Clinton in '92 at the close.

Pretty sure every Carter '80 state (except Minnesota) went to Reagan in '84 right away.
Whoops, I forgot Vermont!
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Computer89
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« Reply #8 on: August 26, 2020, 07:20:27 PM »

Vermont was called for Clinton in '92 at the close.

Pretty sure every Carter '80 state (except Minnesota) went to Reagan in '84 right away.

West Virginia was not called at poll closing time by ABC and neither was Rhode Island :


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