1980: No Anderson and No Debate

[Alben Barkley]

Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan in the last Gallup poll taken before the 1980 election.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/111451/late-upsets-rare-happened.aspx

However, there are two things of note about this poll:

1. It was taken before the late October debate, during which Reagan had his famous "There you go again" and "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" moments that are said to have given him significant momentum going into the election.

2. John B. Anderson, a liberal Republican running as an independent (who was widely seen as taking more votes from Carter than from Reagan), was not included in the poll.

This raises the question: IF Anderson did not run, and IF there was no debate held, could Carter have held on despite the significant issues he was facing? It's not unfathomable that many Anderson voters, especially in the Northeastern states (where he did very well), would have preferred Carter over the very conservative Reagan. It's also not unfathomable that no Anderson in the mix allows Carter to edge out wins in several Southern states he came very close to winning as it was. And without the debate, Reagan wouldn't have had that last minute momentum propelling him to decisive victory.

Personally I think Carter probably still would have lost, but it would have been a lot closer and he would have at least held on to most of the South.

As a sidenote, here's a President Infinity simulation I ran (with Anderson) in which Carter managed to edge out a victory:

[NewYorkExpress]

I think Carter, given the hostages in Iran situation was always going to lose.

Not having the debates hurts Reagan, but it also hurts Carter too, to be honest.

[Sir Mohamed]

Carter was screwed in 1980 one way or the other. Without Anderson, he would have done better EV and NPV wise for sure, but not nearly enough to come close. There were just too many problems to get reelected against any serious GOP opponent. Btw, it's still remarkable he just barely lost a number of Southern states that became deep red later on.

✓ Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Former CIA Director George Bush (R-TX): 359 EVs.; 52.2%
President Jimmy Carter (D-GA)/Vice President Walter Mondale (D-MN): 179 EVs.; 45.9%

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

Carter would not have won Texas or Florida, and he likely would not have won Louisiana.  He may not have won Mississippi; it was his closest win in the South in 1976.

He would have won New York, Massachusetts, Wisconsin, the other Southern states (AL, GA, SC, NC,
TN, and AR), and MAYBE Pennsylvania.  He still would have lost.

One thing that was clear to me in 1980 (when I was politically active) was that Carter had virtually NO Republican support and minimal independent support.  Reagan, on the other hand, had REAL enthusiasm going for him.  Independents didn't care for Carter, and Democrats wished that someone else was their candidate. 

[MATTROSE94]

Carter would not have won Texas or Florida, and he likely would not have won Louisiana.  He may not have won Mississippi; it was his closest win in the South in 1976.

He would have won New York, Massachusetts, Wisconsin, the other Southern states (AL, GA, SC, NC,
TN, and AR), and MAYBE Pennsylvania.  He still would have lost.

One thing that was clear to me in 1980 (when I was politically active) was that Carter had virtually NO Republican support and minimal independent support.  Reagan, on the other hand, had REAL enthusiasm going for him.  Independents didn't care for Carter, and Democrats wished that someone else was their candidate. 

I tend to agree, though Jimmy Carter would have had a chance in Vermont, Maine, Washington, and Oregon as well due to defections from liberal Republicans who were suspicious of Ronald Reagan.

[tagimaucia]

I have no idea where Anderson voters would have gone, but while its true that there were individual polls showing Carter ahead late in the race, Reagan was ahead in the aggregate of polls from late May onward according to this:



Who really knows, but my intuition is that while the debate might have locked in a lot of late Reagan deciders almost immediately, due to the huge number of undecideds in the race, the poor economy, hostage crisis, and general state of discontent in the country, I suspect most of those voters would have ultimately ended up choosing Reagan in the voting booth anyway.