How would the losers of the 2016 gubernatorial races be doing now?
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  How would the losers of the 2016 gubernatorial races be doing now?
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Author Topic: How would the losers of the 2016 gubernatorial races be doing now?  (Read 370 times)
Left Wing
FalterinArc
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« on: July 28, 2020, 12:07:26 PM »
« edited: July 28, 2020, 01:16:01 PM by FalterinArc »

How would candidates who previously lost by less than ten points for the governor’s seats that are up for election this year be doing now? Who would their opponent be and how would the race be rated? If they would be ineligible to run for re-election then what would the state of the race be?
These candidates are:
John Gregg
Greg Gianforte
Bill Bryant
Sue Minter
Bill Cole
Chris Koster
Colin Van Ostern/ Molly Kelly (If either had won, how would they be doing?)
Pat McCrory
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #1 on: July 28, 2020, 12:23:55 PM »
« Edited: July 28, 2020, 12:57:21 PM by Roll Roons »

I think all would be clearly favored unless they royally screwed up the pandemic. Of the people you listed, Gianforte would probably be the most likely to do so, but Montana is very sparsely populated so he may not have seriously come under fire for it. Bill Bryant would have governed like Baker, Hogan or Phil. 

Also you forgot Pat McCrory. That race would be open. My guess is that it would be Josh Stein versus Dan Forest. Tossup, maybe with slight edge to Stein given the national environment.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #2 on: August 05, 2020, 04:15:37 PM »

I think all would be clearly favored unless they royally screwed up the pandemic. Of the people you listed, Gianforte would probably be the most likely to do so, but Montana is very sparsely populated so he may not have seriously come under fire for it. Bill Bryant would have governed like Baker, Hogan or Phil. 

Also you forgot Pat McCrory. That race would be open. My guess is that it would be Josh Stein versus Dan Forest. Tossup, maybe with slight edge to Stein given the national environment.

Would Roy Cooper run again perhaps before Stein. Is he running against Tillis in your scenario?
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #3 on: August 05, 2020, 05:08:21 PM »

I'm going to do all of them, regardless of how much they lost by.

Delaware: Colin Bonini: Opponent is Lisa Blunt Rochester, race is Likely D (Flip)

Indiana: John Gregg: Opponent is Todd Rokita, race is Lean R (flip)

Missouri: Chris Koster: Opponent is Sarah Steelman, race is Lean R (flip)

Montana: Greg Gianforte: Opponent is Steve Bullock, race is Tilt R

New Hampshire: Colin Van Ostern/Molly Kelly: If Van Ostern in 2018, the opponent would be Jeb Bradley and the race would be Likely D, if Kelly in 2020, the opponent would Kelly Ayotte and the race would be Tilt D.

North Carolina: Pat McCrory: The seat would be open: The race would likely be Roy Cooper vs Mark Meadows, and would be a Tilt D race (Flip)

North Dakota: Marvin Nelson: Opponent would be Kelly Armstrong, and the race would be Safe R (Flip)

Utah: Michael Weinholtz: Opponent would be Mia Love, and the race would be Safe R (Flip)

Vermont: Sue Minter: Opponent would be Phil Scott, race would be Likely D

Washington: Bill Bryant: Opponent would be Pramila Jayapal, and the race would be Likely D (Flip)

West Virginia: Bill Cole: Opponent would be Evan Jenkins, race would be Safe R (Flip)

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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #4 on: August 13, 2020, 07:45:30 AM »


West Virginia: Bill Cole: Opponent would be Evan Jenkins, race would be Safe R (Flip)



Bill Cole was and is a Republican, so your scenario does not make sense.
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Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
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« Reply #5 on: August 13, 2020, 08:45:23 AM »

I'm going to do all of them, regardless of how much they lost by.

Delaware: Colin Bonini: Opponent is Lisa Blunt Rochester, race is Likely D (Flip)

Indiana: John Gregg: Opponent is Todd Rokita, race is Lean R (flip)

Missouri: Chris Koster: Opponent is Sarah Steelman, race is Lean R (flip)

Montana: Greg Gianforte: Opponent is Steve Bullock, race is Tilt R

New Hampshire: Colin Van Ostern/Molly Kelly: If Van Ostern in 2018, the opponent would be Jeb Bradley and the race would be Likely D, if Kelly in 2020, the opponent would Kelly Ayotte and the race would be Tilt D.

North Carolina: Pat McCrory: The seat would be open: The race would likely be Roy Cooper vs Mark Meadows, and would be a Tilt D race (Flip)

North Dakota: Marvin Nelson: Opponent would be Kelly Armstrong, and the race would be Safe R (Flip)

Utah: Michael Weinholtz: Opponent would be Mia Love, and the race would be Safe R (Flip)

Vermont: Sue Minter: Opponent would be Phil Scott, race would be Likely D

Washington: Bill Bryant: Opponent would be Pramila Jayapal, and the race would be Likely D (Flip)

West Virginia: Bill Cole: Opponent would be Evan Jenkins, race would be Safe R (Flip)



I think none would actually be safe for the opposing party. If someone managed to win in 2016, the race wouldn't be Safe this year unless the incumbent is screwing up big league. There is always the chance the incumbent governs just fine and enjoys relatively high approvals, regardless of the state's partisan lean at the national level. So the answer to the OP's question is obviously "depends on performance in office". The pandemic is a huge wildcard here, since it got some govs rising in popularity while others have dropped like a rock.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #6 on: August 13, 2020, 01:53:49 PM »

West Virginia: Bill Cole: Opponent would be Evan Jenkins, race would be Safe R (Flip)



Bill Cole was and is a Republican, so your scenario does not make sense.

Whoops.

I forgot that Justice switched parties twice in the span of year, didn't I.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #7 on: August 13, 2020, 02:20:45 PM »

West Virginia: Bill Cole: Opponent would be Evan Jenkins, race would be Safe R (Flip)



Bill Cole was and is a Republican, so your scenario does not make sense.

Whoops.

I forgot that Justice switched parties twice in the span of year, didn't I.


Yes haha.
In this scenario I would think Bill Cole's opponent would be Ben Salango and the race would be Safe R or Likely R at worst.
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