Colorado 1988

[Arbitrage1980]

Reagan won Colorado by 28 points in 1984, but HW Bush won it by 7.8%, in line with his national PV margin over Dukakis. Why did Bush underperform given that CO was still a solid GOP state back then? In Denver county, Reagan lost by 2 points while Bush lost by 24 points. Was Dukakis simply a better fit for CO? Was it the farm crisis, which allowed Dukakis to overperform in the West and Great Plains?

[Agonized-Statism]

Residual excitement for Gary Hart?

[Fuzzy Bear]

Dukakis was ahead in CO for much of the campaign.  This was mainly due to the fact that CO was a socially liberal and environmentally conscious state that was still economically conservative.  There was also the issue about use of Federal Lands that had pushed the West to the GOP in the 1970s, but was abating somewhat by 1988.

CO was nowhere near as Hispanic as it is now.  The growing Hispanic population is the main reason CO has become a blue state. 

[DINGO Joe]

Dukakis was ahead in CO for much of the campaign.  This was mainly due to the fact that CO was a socially liberal and environmentally conscious state that was still economically conservative.  There was also the issue about use of Federal Lands that had pushed the West to the GOP in the 1970s, but was abating somewhat by 1988.

CO was nowhere near as Hispanic as it is now.  The growing Hispanic population is the main reason CO has become a blue state. 

Colorado was about 15% Hispanic in 1990 and 22% in current Census estimates.  Of course there are parts of the state that have a native Hispanic population and parts that have an immigrant population which still has a low voter participation.

Dukakis was a fluent Spanish speaker and did well with Hispanics in the election especially of Mexican descent.  In fact he did better in ancestral counties than Ds do today.  Dukakis was an technocrat and that had appeal to the white collar workforce in and around Denver and really, the swing in the state was pretty uniform across geographic regions.  Denver doesn't have much of a black population, so Willie Horton probably didn't scare whitey as much as some markets. 

Of course, the swing to the Ds over the last decade is not driven by the modest increase in the Hispanic population (much of it still non-voting)  but by the swing towards Ds by college educated voters and Colorado being highly educated.    Ninety-nine percent of Atlas comprehends this but I guess there are still holdouts. 

Sure diversity matters but I'd guess education accounts for about 75% of the swing.

[DINGO Joe]

Just an illustrative example since I was looking at these two counties on the political geography board, Larimer and Weld are two large counties north of the Denver area that have been growing rapidly over several decades now.  They voted identically in 1988 (+12.5 and +12.4) for GW Bush.  In 2016 Larimer voted D +5 and Weld R+22.  Larimer has a Hispanic pop of 12%, while Weld is 30%.  Larimer has a College Ed of 46% while Weld has 26%.  So, what drives that swing?

[Calthrina950]

Just an illustrative example since I was looking at these two counties on the political geography board, Larimer and Weld are two large counties north of the Denver area that have been growing rapidly over several decades now.  They voted identically in 1988 (+12.5 and +12.4) for GW Bush.  In 2016 Larimer voted D +5 and Weld R+22.  Larimer has a Hispanic pop of 12%, while Weld is 30%.  Larimer has a College Ed of 46% while Weld has 26%.  So, what drives that swing?

Weld County is dominated by extractive industries (which are overwhelmingly Republican), while Larimer County is heavily influenced by Ft. Collins, a college town with a substantial liberal population.

[It’s so Joever]

Dukakis was ahead in CO for much of the campaign.  This was mainly due to the fact that CO was a socially liberal and environmentally conscious state that was still economically conservative.  There was also the issue about use of Federal Lands that had pushed the West to the GOP in the 1970s, but was abating somewhat by 1988.

CO was nowhere near as Hispanic as it is now.  The growing Hispanic population is the main reason CO has become a blue state. 

You may be thinking of AZ/TX, but Colorado is liberal because of Denver growth.

[Devout Centrist]

Two words: Farm crisis

[DINGO Joe]

Just an illustrative example since I was looking at these two counties on the political geography board, Larimer and Weld are two large counties north of the Denver area that have been growing rapidly over several decades now.  They voted identically in 1988 (+12.5 and +12.4) for GW Bush.  In 2016 Larimer voted D +5 and Weld R+22.  Larimer has a Hispanic pop of 12%, while Weld is 30%.  Larimer has a College Ed of 46% while Weld has 26%.  So, what drives that swing?

Weld County is dominated by extractive industries (which are overwhelmingly Republican), while Larimer County is heavily influenced by Ft. Collins, a college town with a substantial liberal population.

Weld does have a University too, though I guess not a large and influential as CSU.  Yeah, it does have extractive industries in the north part of the county and Hispanic dominated communities in the south.  All reasons why it's less educated and casts fewer votes than Larimer and ultimately in the current atmosphere less D than Larimer. 

[DINGO Joe]

Two words: Farm crisis

There's just not much of a farm industry in Colorado to be impacted like a Kansas or Iowa or the rest of the Great Plains.