Kentucky (Bluegrass Data [Dem internal] ): Trump +7

[Hope For A New Era]

Insert nonsensical talking point here about how 81% Approval Andy has singlehandedly revived the Kentucky Democratic Party #BeshearCoattails



Anyway, yeah, too good to be true. I bet Booker would have been leading though.

[Hope For A New Era]

There is definitely gonna be split polling, McGrath can win and Trump can carry KY by 9 points, same with MO and KS, Trump can carry these states by 10 pts, less than in 2016, and Ds can carry them

One recurring thing in Missouri is that voters like Democratic/left-wing policies, they just for some reason don't like Democrats. This can be clearly seen in the referendums of the last few years.

However, if Missourians are convinced that someone is "a different kind of Democrat," you end up with massive ticket-splitting. 2012 was Romney +9, Nixon +12. So, hopefully Galloway can do that.

[Hope For A New Era]

And again, I don’t expect Trump to IMPROVE on his 2016 numbers in the more rural areas from 2016; if anything, he’ll probably go down slightly.

Forgot to reply to this earlier - I think he'll go down more than just slightly. I think we've really underestimated just how toxic Hillary Clinton was to the rurals in 2016. As the primaries demonstrated for Bernie Sanders this year: we're likely going to discover that a whole lot of those rural Trump votes were actually anti-Clinton votes. I would not be surprised to see a return to 2012-like margins here in MO, as well as a lot of other places.