Kentucky (Bluegrass Data [Dem internal] ): Trump +7
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  Kentucky (Bluegrass Data [Dem internal] ): Trump +7
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Author Topic: Kentucky (Bluegrass Data [Dem internal] ): Trump +7  (Read 1582 times)
Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« on: August 05, 2020, 03:31:21 PM »
« edited: August 05, 2020, 03:38:08 PM by Bidenworth2020 »

https://t.co/0sUTttCNlq?amp=1

Trump 52 (-3 from April)
Biden 45 (+11)

Senate Race

McConnell 49 (+9)
McGrath 46 (+8)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2020, 03:36:53 PM »

This should probably be marked (D).  Bluegrass Data calls itself a "progressive data analytics firm" and the poll was for the Ditch Mitch Fund (love the name!)
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Rand
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« Reply #2 on: August 05, 2020, 03:40:00 PM »

If Biden can pull off a win in Kentucky it will negate his loss of DC.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #3 on: August 05, 2020, 03:40:55 PM »

Checks out, looks legit. Looking forward to the 25 point national Biden win that this would indicate.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: August 05, 2020, 03:42:47 PM »

Mitch below 50, a surprise
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #5 on: August 05, 2020, 04:04:11 PM »

I'd be stunned if Kentucky is within 20 points.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #6 on: August 05, 2020, 04:40:03 PM »

Checks out, looks legit. Looking forward to the 25 point national Biden win that this would indicate.

I hear the Ditch Mitch Fund that commissioned this might host and moderate one of the presidential debates.
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Lisa's voting Biden
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« Reply #7 on: August 05, 2020, 04:43:02 PM »

If Kentucky was anywhere NEAR this close, Mitch would be DOA, but he's still up 3 according to this poll.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #8 on: August 05, 2020, 04:47:48 PM »

If Kentucky was anywhere NEAR this close, Mitch would be DOA, but he's still up 3 according to this poll.

I don't agree.  I think McGrath is exactly as bad of a candidate as this poll suggests.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #9 on: August 05, 2020, 04:59:50 PM »

I'd be stunned if Kentucky is within 20 points.

I actually think the margin could look something like 2008. Which was McCain +16.

Biden is going to dominate in Fayette and Jefferson counties, will likely make in-roads in the Cincy suburbs, and I don't see Trump doing BETTER in the rural parts of the state than last time. That means he has nowhere to go but down.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #10 on: August 05, 2020, 06:57:08 PM »

Too good to be true.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #11 on: August 06, 2020, 01:11:54 AM »

Insert nonsensical talking point here about how 81% Approval Andy has singlehandedly revived the Kentucky Democratic Party #BeshearCoattails



Anyway, yeah, too good to be true. I bet Booker would have been leading though.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: August 06, 2020, 05:19:10 AM »

Trump isnt winning KY by 20, KY even if Rs carry it, it is a changed state, that's why Bevin lost in a midterm and Rs are favored in red states in midterms

McConnell is in a competetive race  due to McGrath being a Persian Gulf II vet. If KY is competetive, then Don Jr is right, Mackler is a Persian Gulf II vet. Both states still have significant AA population. That's why Gore was Senator
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #13 on: August 06, 2020, 12:06:42 PM »

I expect Biden to lose KY by single digits
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #14 on: August 06, 2020, 06:32:51 PM »

I expect Biden to lose KY by single digits

That's a Kentucky fried take right there!
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #15 on: August 07, 2020, 10:41:19 PM »

Insert nonsensical talking point here about how 81% Approval Andy has singlehandedly revived the Kentucky Democratic Party #BeshearCoattails



Anyway, yeah, too good to be true. I bet Booker would have been leading though.

Kentucky acted aggressively against COVID-19.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #16 on: August 08, 2020, 01:03:05 AM »

Insert nonsensical talking point here about how 81% Approval Andy has singlehandedly revived the Kentucky Democratic Party #BeshearCoattails



Anyway, yeah, too good to be true. I bet Booker would have been leading though.

Andy IS super popular and that can’t be entirely ignored. Moreover, Trump is falling hard and fast in many of the same areas that handed Bevin his defeat in 2019 — namely, Fayette/Jefferson counties and surrounding areas plus the Cincy suburbs. I honestly expect Biden to crack 60% or close to it in both Fayette and Jefferson, which is really something for counties that were relatively competitive until recently. Trump is just that toxic in these areas. I also expect Biden to handily win Franklin County and make Kent/Campbell counties closer than they have been in a long time. And again, I don’t expect Trump to IMPROVE on his 2016 numbers in the more rural areas from 2016; if anything, he’ll probably go down slightly. All this adds up to an inevitably narrower margin of victory for Trump from last time. The only question is how much narrower. Certainly only a 7 point win seems too good to be true, but if he only ends up winning by like 12 or something? I would not be surprised in the least.

I will also take this opportunity to remind you all that I initially joined this site to tell you that Andy Beshear was definitely gonna beat Matt Bevin. Few believed me, some called me “nonsensical” or worse and... look what happened. I’m just saying. I know my state.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: August 08, 2020, 01:59:46 AM »

There is definitely gonna be split polling, McGrath can win and Trump can carry KY by 9 points, same with MO and KS, Trump can carry these states by 10 pts, less than in 2016, and Ds can carry them
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #18 on: August 08, 2020, 07:53:06 AM »

There is definitely gonna be split polling, McGrath can win and Trump can carry KY by 9 points, same with MO and KS, Trump can carry these states by 10 pts, less than in 2016, and Ds can carry them

One recurring thing in Missouri is that voters like Democratic/left-wing policies, they just for some reason don't like Democrats. This can be clearly seen in the referendums of the last few years.

However, if Missourians are convinced that someone is "a different kind of Democrat," you end up with massive ticket-splitting. 2012 was Romney +9, Nixon +12. So, hopefully Galloway can do that.
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #19 on: August 09, 2020, 10:19:50 AM »

I expect Biden to lose KY by single digits

That's a Kentucky fried take right there!
Hmm probably too optimistic after the +24 poll came out.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #20 on: August 09, 2020, 01:47:03 PM »

And again, I don’t expect Trump to IMPROVE on his 2016 numbers in the more rural areas from 2016; if anything, he’ll probably go down slightly.

Forgot to reply to this earlier - I think he'll go down more than just slightly. I think we've really underestimated just how toxic Hillary Clinton was to the rurals in 2016. As the primaries demonstrated for Bernie Sanders this year: we're likely going to discover that a whole lot of those rural Trump votes were actually anti-Clinton votes. I would not be surprised to see a return to 2012-like margins here in MO, as well as a lot of other places.
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Orwell
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« Reply #21 on: August 09, 2020, 02:44:51 PM »

Kentuckyians of Atlas do you guys have Culvers?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #22 on: August 11, 2020, 01:40:34 AM »

I thought it would be competetive again by KY, is still safe R
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #23 on: August 11, 2020, 02:09:47 AM »

I will also take this opportunity to remind you all that I initially joined this site to tell you that Andy Beshear was definitely gonna beat Matt Bevin. Few believed me, some called me “nonsensical” or worse and... look what happened. I’m just saying. I know my state.

Beshear literally won by less than .5%. The "Safe R KY" hyperbole was indeed ridiculous and lazy analysis, but I don’t think the outcome of that election proved that Beshear was always "definitely" going to beat Bevin.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #24 on: August 11, 2020, 03:24:13 AM »

McGrath and Hegar are the same
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