AZ-06 (DCCC): Biden +4

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1290864382474412033?s=20

[Tender Branson]

Beautiful.

[ajc0918]

14 point swing toward Dems is great. Arizona is on its way to becoming the next Nevada.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wouldn't put too much stock in this poll, Kelly was only 2 pts ahead of McSally and Biden is only leading in AZ by 4, the gap will close

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Solid! Hopefully Hiral can catch Biden's wave.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

For reference, Joe Arpaio lost this district by seven points when he was seen losing Maricopa County by 13%. This points to about a 10% Biden lead in Maricopa County, which is plausible but on the outer edges of outcomes.

[xavier110]

For reference, Joe Arpaio lost this district by seven points when he was seen losing Maricopa County by 13%. This points to about a 10% Biden lead in Maricopa County, which is plausible but on the outer edges of outcomes.

It’s a little hard to say it pulls everything so uniformly. I’m moving to this district in a week or two, and this is the area that is probably going to swing hardest blue of all AZ.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

For reference, Joe Arpaio lost this district by seven points when he was seen losing Maricopa County by 13%. This points to about a 10% Biden lead in Maricopa County, which is plausible but on the outer edges of outcomes.

It’s a little hard to say it pulls everything so uniformly. I’m moving to this district in a week or two, and this is the area that is probably going to swing hardest blue of all AZ.

Possibly. Only AZ-09 had a harder left swing in 2016 from +4 Obama to +17 Clinton. AZ-02 also had a big swing as well.

[😥]

14 point swing toward Dems is great. Arizona is on its way to becoming the next Nevada Virginia.

[Yoda]

14 point swing toward Dems is great. Arizona is on its way to becoming the next Nevada Virginia.

This has nothing to do with any comment you have posted but just wanted to say that your Joe Biden/Marcy Kaptur 2020 sig is giving me all the feels. That's my congresswoman and she is incomparable. I've met her a couple times and she is a class act.

[G_Master]

If Trump is losing by 4 points (48-44) is Scottsdale, then the Trump campaign should consider this to be a six-alarm fire in terms of the prospect of him winning in Arizona. I mean that would be an 8-point reduction in vote share in one of the most reliably republican districts in the state.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

14 point swing toward Dems is great. Arizona is on its way to becoming the next Nevada Virginia.

This has nothing to do with any comment you have posted but just wanted to say that your Joe Biden/Marcy Kaptur 2020 sig is giving me all the feels. That's my congresswoman and she is incomparable. I've met her a couple times and she is a class act.

I just posted this elsewhere but I think it's pretty remarkable that your district has only had TWO representatives since 1956. 

[Epaminondas]

Will 2020 be the year the Democrat finally breaks 45% in Arizona?
Reminder of Dem vote shares:
2000: 44.5
2004: 44.1
2008: 44.9
2012: 44.3
2016: 44.7

I think it's pretty remarkable that your district has only had TWO representatives since 1956. 

There was a one-termer between Ashley's 13 terms and Kaptur's 19-and-counting.

[wbrocks67]

Will 2020 be the year the Democrat finally breaks 45% in Arizona?
Reminder of Dem vote shares:
2000: 44.5
2004: 44.1
2008: 44.9
2012: 44.3
2016: 44.7

I think it's pretty remarkable that your district has only had TWO representatives since 1956.  

There was a one-termer between Ashley's 13 terms and Kaptur's 19-and-counting.

2018 says hello

[Orwell]

14 point swing toward Dems is great. Arizona is on its way to becoming the next Nevada Virginia.

This has nothing to do with any comment you have posted but just wanted to say that your Joe Biden/Marcy Kaptur 2020 sig is giving me all the feels. That's my congresswoman and she is incomparable. I've met her a couple times and she is a class act.

I just posted this elsewhere but I think it's pretty remarkable that your district has only had TWO representatives since 1956. 

Speaking of weird seats, if you look at Michigan's 15th CD which is now defunct. John Dingell Sr. represented it from 1933-1955 and then Dingell Jr. represented from 1955-1965 when he was redistricted to MI-16 which he represented from 1965-2003 in MI-16 he defeated John Lesinski who like Dingell inherited his seat from his father John Lesinski Sr. when he died in 1950. Lesinski Sr. and Dingell Sr. both entered Congress on March 4, 1933, both were named John, both were Polish, both were succeeded in office by their son's also named John.

[xavier110]

Will 2020 be the year the Democrat finally breaks 45% in Arizona?
Reminder of Dem vote shares:
2000: 44.5
2004: 44.1
2008: 44.9
2012: 44.3
2016: 44.7

Yes. The question is does Biden get 50+