PA, MI, WI (Hodas & Associates) - Biden +6, +12, +14

[wbrocks67]

They've just released the 'real' numbers and... they're virtually the same!!

MICHIGAN
Trump: 40.3%
Biden: 51.3%
Change from June: Trump +6.5 percentage points

WISCONSIN
Trump: 37.9%
Biden: 50.3%
Change from June: Trump +4.2 percentage points

PENNSYLVANIA
Trump: 44.3%
Biden: 49.7%
Change from June: Trump +6.3 percentage points

Apparently its a massive swing to Trump since June. I don't even remember a poll from June.

Seems totally believable that we'd see 4-6 pt Trump swings since June

[wbrocks67]

Michigan:
W/ leaners: Biden 52.5 - Trump 40.5
Trump approval: 41/57 (-16)
Trump fav: 39/57 (-18)
Trump virus approval: 36/60 (-24)
GCB: D 48.7 - R 38.3
Senate: Peters 51.3 - James 39.5

Pennsylvania:
W/ leaners: Biden 50.8 - Trump 44.7
Trump approval: 46/52 (-6)
Trump fav: 41/55 (-14)
Trump virus approval: 41/55 (-14)
GCB: R 44.8 - D 43.8

Wisconsin:
W/ leaners: Biden 52.1 - Trump 37.9
Trump approval: 40/57 (-17)
Trump fav: 33/58 (-25)
Trump virus approval: 33/62 (-29)
GCB: D 49.3 - R 36.1

I really don't even know what to say about these #s. Michigan is the closest to possible, since it seems Trump is triaging, but Wisconsin being nearly Biden +15, with Trump approval levels in the -20's seems way too D, and Pennsylvania somehow has his approval at -6, but his unfav/virus approval near -15, but the GCB in *republican* hands. Makes no sense.

[Skye]

Sample in MI apparently is around 68% college-educated.

https://twitter.com/jon_m_rob/status/1290993733824122881

[GeorgiaModerate]

Their WI and PA college numbers are even higher!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The gap will obviously narrow as we get closer to election day and these are the 3 states that will matter the most WI and PA Biden +2 and MI Biden +4, that's how much Kerry won, in 2004

[wbrocks67]

Their WI and PA college numbers are even higher!

Their methodology is messed up then... there's no way that the PA poll has a higher college+ # and somehow has Dems *losing* the GCB.

The cross tabs are funky too though. One of them had Biden/Trump essentially tied among 18-34, so....yeah

[Ferguson97]

Sample in MI apparently is around 68% college-educated.

https://twitter.com/jon_m_rob/status/1290993733824122881

If that’s real then this poll is worse than trash

[Badger]

Sample in MI apparently is around 68% college-educated.

https://twitter.com/jon_m_rob/status/1290993733824122881

If that’s real then this poll is worse than trash

This would have it skewed towards Biden, correct?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sample in MI apparently is around 68% college-educated.

https://twitter.com/jon_m_rob/status/1290993733824122881

If that’s real then this poll is worse than trash

This would have it skewed towards Biden, correct?

Correct.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

Remember when people (myself included) assumed Wisconsin would be Trump's best of the three?

[Badger]

Remember when people (myself included) assumed Wisconsin would be Trump's best of the three?

It will.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Sample in MI apparently is around 68% college-educated.

https://twitter.com/jon_m_rob/status/1290993733824122881

If that’s real then this poll is worse than trash

That's a shame...

[South Dakota Democrat]

Yet another poll that shows if anything WI is more safe than PA. Yet people still cling to this fantastical notion that WI is somehow significantly more likely to stay with Trump.

Yeah, for sure.  Never really made sense, either, since the loss in Wisconsin can be attribute to bad turnout in Milwaukee, which can more easily be rectified, vs. Clinton doing as well as expected in Philly but getting clobbered in most of the rest of the state.  You could argue that Biden has room to grow in the Philly suburbs, which is definitely true, but to say that Pennsylvania is substantially more likely to vote for Biden than Wisconsin isn't borne out by the evidence.