Bush's vote rise in Massachusetts and Rhode Island?

[Smash255]

possibly 9/11 bump related?  Bush tended to do better in some suburban areas of the Northeasr in 04 than 00.  It was mostly concentrated in suburban NY (Long island, jersey, and CT), but its not of the question that the 9/11 suburban bump spreaded to mass (which has many suburbs) and RI (in which most of the state is suburban).  Basically a group that was trending heavily Dem, and took a one election jump back due to 9/11 & security issues, but a group which more than likely will jump back further left in 08.

[Smash255]

possibly 9/11 bump related?  Bush tended to do better in some suburban areas of the Northeasr in 04 than 00.  It was mostly concentrated in suburban NY (Long island, jersey, and CT), but its not of the question that the 9/11 suburban bump spreaded to mass (which has many suburbs) and RI (in which most of the state is suburban).  Basically a group that was trending heavily Dem, and took a one election jump back due to 9/11 & security issues, but a group which more than likely will jump back further left in 08.

I can understand why the New York suburbs trended Republican, but why would the 9/11 fear effect Boston all that much more than, say, the Democratic-trending D.C. 'burbs?  If there was a 9/11 bump, it should have been evident there, too, shouldn't it have been?

Not exactly.  You have to take into consideration the strength of the overall leftward trending.  While still moving leftward suburban Boston's movement is more of a gradual leftward trend at the moment, after strong leftward trends during the 90's.  Meanwhile currently the D.C burbs are trending very strong to the left, basically at the pace of the Boston and NYC burbs did during the 90's.

Look at it this way you have the overall leftward trending of each region going up against what is a one time rightward trend of 9/11.  The one-time rightward 9/11 trend wins out in the Boston suburbs because it is stronger than the overall leftward trend of the region, which while still trending left pace has slowed from it was during the 90's and become more gradual.  However with the same two forces working against each other in suburban D.C the leftward trend wins out simply due to how heavy & hard the leftward trend is currently in suburban D.C.

[Smash255]

the 9/11 bump is simplistic.  where was the 9/11 bump in manhattan?

gay marriage pissed off a lot of working class catholics in massachusetts.

I would say 9/11 and national security as a voting issue impacted those in the suburbs more than in Manhattan.  Not that National Security wasn't an issue in Manhattan, but as far as a voting issue I think it was a bigger voting issue in the subrubs than the city (and I know Staten island had a strong swing, but the southern 2/3 of Staten Island is pretty much suburban anyway, and probably more  suburban than portions of Long Island.

[Smash255]

Part of the reason I think it has more to do with a 9/11 suburban security bump, rather than social conservatives, is the fact that while Bush's #'s have taken a dive nationwide, they have really been hit hard in Rhode Island.  While, social conservatives in some cases might not be all that happy with Bush, a major factor in Bush's declining #'s is due to the Iraq situation, the aftermah of Katrina, and then the Dubai debacle, and the major hit he has taken in regards to security issues.