Bush's vote rise in Massachusetts and Rhode Island?

[Lincoln Republican]

WalterMitty's reasoning is accurate.

Bush's vote rise in MA and RI can be summed up in three words

socially conservative Catholics

[Lincoln Republican]

Funny how Winfield and Mitty say its gay marriage and all the red avatars say its something else like a 9/11 bump.

In Connecticut, Bush's rise was because Lieberman wasn't on the Democrat ticket. He would have won Litchfield County last time otherwise (Not that its especially conservative, it just doesn't have any urban areas).

The areas that Nader did strongest in in 2000, such as Hampshire County, MA (home to U Mass-Amherst, Smith College, etc.) swung extremely to the Dems in 2004, so we can discount Nader as a factor for Bush's increase.

I was more surprised by Rhode Island's swing than MA's. RI's Democrat percentage actually declined, while MA's still rose slightly. And Rhode Island didn't have gay marriage as a factor. Any thoughts Winfield?

You have raised some very valid points.

Along with the other reasons mentioned for Bush's vote rise in 2004, all good reasons by the way, to expand briefly on my previous entry, RI does have a large percentage of Catholics, over 50%.  Some of these are certainly socially conservative.  I reason Bush likely received a slightly higher percentage of these more socially conservative Catholic votes than he did in 2000, due to his overall more conservative social views, not just based on the same sex marriage issue, but social issues in general.  After all, both John Kerry and John Edwards were publicly opposed to same sex marriage.  At least, that is my reasoning for Bush's vote rise, for what it's worth.

By the way, at this rate of increase for the GOP, presuming it holds steady, the Republican Presidential nominee should win Rhode Island in 2016.

By the way, why the name change? Any significance to the new name?  Just wondering.

Thanks.         

[Lincoln Republican]

Referring to RI, my own view, not having seen any detailed demographics of the vote break down, is that many socially conservative working class Catholics were motivated by social issues overall, not just same sex marriage, in 2004, thus resulting in a higher turnout amongst this group, and Bush was able to capitalize on this fact, by drawing a higher percentage, and by this I mean a slightly higher percentage, of these particular voters to his cause.

 

[Lincoln Republican]

I noticed Washington County and Newport Counties trended slightly Democrat while the other 3 went strongly in Bush's direction. How are the first 2 different? I've been to Block Island (New Shoreham) but I doubt thats a good representation of Washington County.   
[/quote]

Cubby

Demographically, the only county markedly different from the other four counties is Providence County.

Providence County has a lower white population, higher black population, and higher hispanic population than any of the other four counties, by a considerable margin. 

Providence County has the lowest percentage of high school graduates and the lowest percentage of university graduates of any county.

Providence County has the lowest median household income, the lowest per capita income, and the highest percentage of persons below the poverty line, by a fair margin.

For the most part, the other four counties, Bristol, Kent, Newport, Washington, are much closer demographically.

These are simply statistics, and are not necessarily reflective of voting trends.