WI-Global Strategy Group (D): Biden +9
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Author Topic: WI-Global Strategy Group (D): Biden +9  (Read 791 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: August 03, 2020, 12:03:40 PM »
Wisconsin: Global Strategy Group, July 11-17, 600 LV

Biden 51
Trump 42
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Person Man
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« Reply #1 on: August 03, 2020, 12:04:06 PM »
A little old, but I'll take it.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: August 03, 2020, 12:07:27 PM »
Lines up.

What is with some of these groups though, taking so long to get polls out?
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #3 on: August 03, 2020, 12:08:40 PM »

Just like Biden!

...

I'm sorry.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: August 03, 2020, 12:09:14 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 03, 2020, 12:07:27 PM
Lines up.

What is with some of these groups though, taking so long to get polls out?

Rassy tracking poll is showing Trump back to 47 percent, MT is plus 11 WI is gonna be Biden plus 3
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redjohn
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« Reply #5 on: August 03, 2020, 12:22:34 PM »
I don't think Biden is going to win Wisconsin by 9. He's clearly favored here, but I don't expect a blowout. It's going to be closer than this.
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BobbieMac
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« Reply #6 on: August 03, 2020, 12:22:43 PM »
Quote from: MR. KAYNE WEST on August 03, 2020, 12:09:14 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 03, 2020, 12:07:27 PM
Lines up.

What is with some of these groups though, taking so long to get polls out?

Rassy tracking poll is showing Trump back to 47 percent, MT is plus 11 WI is gonna be Biden plus 3

Last Rassy tracking poll was 48/42, but you're right that would put Biden +3 in WI on UNS.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7 on: August 03, 2020, 12:46:14 PM »
Quote from: redjohn on August 03, 2020, 12:22:34 PM
I don't think Biden is going to win Wisconsin by 9. He's clearly favored here, but I don't expect a blowout. It's going to be closer than this.

Karofsky won by 11. Not sure how 9 is out of the realm of possibility.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: August 03, 2020, 01:25:58 PM »
Because Emerson,  Gravis, Zogby and Rassy include 3rd party candidates, Biden isnt winning by 9 with Jorgensen.
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MplsDem
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« Reply #9 on: August 03, 2020, 01:45:34 PM »
The sample seems too educated, 50% with an associate's degree or higher(39% with a bachelor's or higher) seems high to me.  In any case, I'm excited to see the new Marquette poll on Wednesday.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #10 on: August 03, 2020, 02:29:14 PM »
Quote from: MR. KAYNE WEST on August 03, 2020, 01:25:58 PM
Because Emerson,  Gravis, Zogby and Rassy include 3rd party candidates, Biden isnt winning by 9 with Jorgensen.

Jorghensen will get 1% of the popular vote, tops
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: August 03, 2020, 03:15:42 PM »
Quote from: Ferguson97 on August 03, 2020, 02:29:14 PM
Quote from: MR. KAYNE WEST on August 03, 2020, 01:25:58 PM
Because Emerson,  Gravis, Zogby and Rassy include 3rd party candidates, Biden isnt winning by 9 with Jorgensen.

Jorghensen will get 1% of the popular vote, tops

If the race is close, given the irregular ballots in VBM, that 1-3% can make the difference. There were 500 to 10K VBM Irregularities in a close election.

Every election has been close since 2000, 2004 and 2016 based on absentee and provisional ballots
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Roblox
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« Reply #12 on: August 03, 2020, 03:45:59 PM »

Got em!
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #13 on: August 03, 2020, 04:14:49 PM »
Quote from: MR. KAYNE WEST on August 03, 2020, 03:15:42 PM
Quote from: Ferguson97 on August 03, 2020, 02:29:14 PM
Quote from: MR. KAYNE WEST on August 03, 2020, 01:25:58 PM
Because Emerson,  Gravis, Zogby and Rassy include 3rd party candidates, Biden isnt winning by 9 with Jorgensen.

Jorghensen will get 1% of the popular vote, tops

If the race is close, given the irregular ballots in VBM, that 1-3% can make the difference. There were 500 to 10K VBM Irregularities in a close election.

Every election has been close since 2000, 2004 and 2016 based on absentee and provisional ballots

Polling indicates that this will not be a close election. It'll be somewhere in-between 2008 and 2012.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #14 on: August 03, 2020, 06:27:08 PM »
It's the Stepien bump! That guy is working his magic!
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #15 on: August 04, 2020, 05:28:02 PM »
Good for Trump
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