MI-PPP: Biden +6
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 04:22:39 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  MI-PPP: Biden +6
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: MI-PPP: Biden +6  (Read 1862 times)
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,755
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 03, 2020, 03:41:16 PM »

Biden 49%
Trump 43%

https://progressmichigan.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Michigan-Results-August.pdf
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,592
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 03, 2020, 03:42:21 PM »

Closer than I'd like, but I take it. Uncle Joe at nearly 50% is certainly a good sign. Most polls H-dog led by six were lower.
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,681
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 03, 2020, 03:42:42 PM »

Have they polled here before?
Logged
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,755
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 03, 2020, 03:44:09 PM »


Yes, it was Biden +7.
Logged
WD
Western Democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,573
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 03, 2020, 03:48:24 PM »

Also notice some of the cross tabs. Trump has a 44% approval and gets 43% of the vote, the GOP as a whole has a 37% approval and James gets 39% of the vote. Trump’s approval/disapproval will track quite closely with the final result.

Also Biden has a 40/46 approval/disapproval rating, but gets 49%. The Democratic Party as a whole gets a 42/46 approval/ disapproval rating, yet Peters gets 47%. This seems to show that their are voters who may not like or approval of Biden and the Democrats, but are voting for them anyway. These are likely independents and Trump adverse conservatives. On the other hand, the people who dislikes Trump and the GOP are 100% against them.

This goes to show what a poor position he is in as of now.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 03, 2020, 04:25:10 PM »

This poll has had Biden at +6/7 for *literally* months now
Logged
Woody
SirWoodbury
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,047


Political Matrix
E: 1.48, S: 1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 03, 2020, 05:00:16 PM »

Closer than I'd like, but I take it. Uncle Joe at nearly 50% is certainly a good sign. Most polls H-dog led by six were lower.
The last Michigan PPP poll before election day in 2016 was Clinton +6 w/3rd parties:
Clinton was at 50% and Trump was at 44.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/PPP_Release_COMIVA_110416.pdf

This is literally 2016 over again.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 03, 2020, 05:03:58 PM »

Closer than I'd like, but I take it. Uncle Joe at nearly 50% is certainly a good sign. Most polls H-dog led by six were lower.
The last Michigan PPP poll before election day in 2016 was Clinton +6 w/3rd parties:
Clinton was at 50% and Trump was at 44.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/PPP_Release_COMIVA_110416.pdf

This is literally 2016 over again.

Eh, their 4-way had Clinton 46-41, which like most polls, was close on the Clinton margin, and then undecideds/some 3rd party people broke for Trump.

Also funny enough, their VA and CO polls however nailed it.
Logged
Horus
Sheliak5
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,564
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 03, 2020, 05:16:42 PM »

Biden just can't seem to pull away here
Logged
Hammy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,711
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 03, 2020, 05:34:48 PM »

Closer than I'd like, but I take it. Uncle Joe at nearly 50% is certainly a good sign. Most polls H-dog led by six were lower.
The last Michigan PPP poll before election day in 2016 was Clinton +6 w/3rd parties:
Clinton was at 50% and Trump was at 44.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/PPP_Release_COMIVA_110416.pdf

This is literally 2016 over again.

2016 was not a head to head race. In the end their margin was R+5 relative to the actual results if you poll the race that actually existed (four candidates), and more specifically as I've pointed out polls with the winner at 46% are useless. Clinton was underpolled by 1% and Trump by 6%.

PPP has a horrible D bias but even here if you want to give them the same error as 2016, Biden would win 50-49.
Logged
MplsDem
Rookie
**
Posts: 87


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 03, 2020, 05:36:21 PM »

Closer than I'd like, but I take it. Uncle Joe at nearly 50% is certainly a good sign. Most polls H-dog led by six were lower.
The last Michigan PPP poll before election day in 2016 was Clinton +6 w/3rd parties:
Clinton was at 50% and Trump was at 44.

This is literally 2016 over again.

Even though the topline result is close to that of the 2016 poll, it's not the same because they didn't weight their sample according to education level in 2016.  They did this time.  This poll has the sample at 56% with no degree, 33% with a bachelor's degree or higher, and 9% with a 2 year degree.  Seems reasonable to me.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 03, 2020, 05:36:46 PM »

Likely D
Logged
Gracile
gracile
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,047


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 03, 2020, 05:45:03 PM »

Biden having a modest lead in Michigan isn't surprising given the environment, but these recent polls really put to rest the (baseless) "MI = IN 2008 redux" theory.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: August 03, 2020, 06:03:00 PM »

Good for Trump
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,562
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: August 03, 2020, 06:23:46 PM »

Yeah, this is another Michigan poll that could be better for Biden but still adds up with him having a solid lead here somewhere between the mid and high single digits. Same goes for Peters versus James.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 03, 2020, 06:35:39 PM »

Biden just can't seem to pull away here

the average of polls is Biden +8....
Logged
South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,394


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 03, 2020, 06:41:33 PM »

Closer than I'd like, but I take it. Uncle Joe at nearly 50% is certainly a good sign. Most polls H-dog led by six were lower.
The last Michigan PPP poll before election day in 2016 was Clinton +6 w/3rd parties:
Clinton was at 50% and Trump was at 44.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/PPP_Release_COMIVA_110416.pdf

This is literally 2016 over again.

Nah.
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,933
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 03, 2020, 06:42:11 PM »

Please don't tell me people, all of a sudden, are undecided.
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,562
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: August 03, 2020, 06:43:26 PM »

Biden just can't seem to pull away here

the average of polls is Biden +8....

Also let's not forget that Trump has triaged Michigan.
Logged
Hammy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,711
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: August 03, 2020, 06:45:04 PM »

Please don't tell me people, all of a sudden, are undecided.

Combination of statistical noise and the "undecided" Trump voters coming home. Undecideds were relatively low in this poll
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: August 03, 2020, 09:00:38 PM »

The loud expressions of contempt for Donald Trump from the time in which COVID-19 was ravaging Michigan (Michigan was hit hard and early) have abated some. It has not gone away, though.

Michigan got hit hard, but it was early to lock down, and it locked down hard.It was fourth in deaths for a long time, but Texas seems to be taking over that dubious honor.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 04, 2020, 04:59:43 AM »

Biden having a modest lead in Michigan isn't surprising given the environment, but these recent polls really put to rest the (baseless) "MI = IN 2008 redux" theory.

like Target Point Biden +16 or CNN Biden +12? you're cherry picking...
Logged
SnowLabrador
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,577
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: August 04, 2020, 06:34:04 AM »

The race is tightening. Trump will win, mark my words.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: August 04, 2020, 06:44:17 AM »

The race is tightening. Trump will win, mark my words.

PPP has commissioned numerous polls of Micihgan for the past 3-4 months. They've all been +6 or +7 Biden.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,354


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: August 04, 2020, 06:44:56 AM »

The race is tightening. Trump will win, mark my words.

PPP has commissioned numerous polls of Micihgan for the past 3-4 months. They've all been +6 or +7 Biden.

Shhh.  You're disturbing his bubble.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.053 seconds with 14 queries.