Cut that margin in half and it’s believable. Not an insurmountable lead, but also not easy to overcome against a well-funded and well-known opponent who’s in constant campaign mode. Tilt R.
Oh come on, Montana, you really want this body slamming carpetbagger? But it's still Emerson, so people shouldn't overreact.
And yet Cooney is struggling to close the gap against this "body slamming carpetbagger" even though (a) he’s running in a massive Democratic wave year in which the incumbent Republican Senator is in danger of losing his seat and Trump is at best winning the state by half his 2016 margin, (b) it’s been 20 years since a Republican last won a gubernatorial election and the 16 years of Democratic rule have generally been well received, (c) no other candidate has been attacked more over the past four years than Gianforte (including this year, even during the R primary when Fox tried to save his campaign by going negative on him), (d) the outgoing Democratic governor is very popular and the current administration (in which Cooney is serving as Lieutenant Governor) has for the most part received high marks for its response to the pandemic, (e) Cooney has had the advantage of having decades-long ties to the MDP party apparatus, (f) Gianforte is more conservative than any other Republican nominee for governor (and arguably even Senate) in recent memory.
Maybe this "body slamming carpetbagger" is not such an awful candidate after all and 95% of the people who are still screeching "Jersey Greg" as if that is going to sway any genuinely undecided voter were never going to vote for him anyway?
MT Republicans have been burned way too often in the past with supposedly "safe" candidates who turned out to be no match for the MDP in an actual general election campaign, so there’s little appetite for that to happen again when the stakes are this high. No actual Republican cares if Gianforte is despised by 45% of the state as long as their vote doesn’t count twice and he actually has what it takes to win (narrowly, but a win is a win). More controversial + less "moderate" + generating the more vocal opposition doesn’t always equal less "electable", even in a competitive state.