MT-Emerson: Gianforte +9 (user search)
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  MT-Emerson: Gianforte +9 (search mode)
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Author Topic: MT-Emerson: Gianforte +9  (Read 2471 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: August 03, 2020, 09:17:14 PM »

Cut that margin in half and it’s believable. Not an insurmountable lead, but also not easy to overcome against a well-funded and well-known opponent who’s in constant campaign mode. Tilt R.

Oh come on, Montana, you really want this body slamming carpetbagger? But it's still Emerson, so people shouldn't overreact.

And yet Cooney is struggling to close the gap against this "body slamming carpetbagger" even though (a) he’s running in a massive Democratic wave year in which the incumbent Republican Senator is in danger of losing his seat and Trump is at best winning the state by half his 2016 margin, (b) it’s been 20 years since a Republican last won a gubernatorial election and the 16 years of Democratic rule have generally been well received, (c) no other candidate has been attacked more over the past four years than Gianforte (including this year, even during the R primary when Fox tried to save his campaign by going negative on him), (d) the outgoing Democratic governor is very popular and the current administration (in which Cooney is serving as Lieutenant Governor) has for the most part received high marks for its response to the pandemic, (e) Cooney has had the advantage of having decades-long ties to the MDP party apparatus, (f) Gianforte is more conservative than any other Republican nominee for governor (and arguably even Senate) in recent memory.

Maybe this "body slamming carpetbagger" is not such an awful candidate after all and 95% of the people who are still screeching "Jersey Greg" as if that is going to sway any genuinely undecided voter were never going to vote for him anyway? Tongue MT Republicans have been burned way too often in the past with supposedly "safe" candidates who turned out to be no match for the MDP in an actual general election campaign, so there’s little appetite for that to happen again when the stakes are this high. No actual Republican cares if Gianforte is despised by 45% of the state as long as their vote doesn’t count twice and he actually has what it takes to win (narrowly, but a win is a win). More controversial + less "moderate" + generating the more vocal opposition doesn’t always equal less "electable", even in a competitive state.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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Posts: 15,284
United States


« Reply #1 on: August 04, 2020, 12:15:08 AM »

Can't believe I'm saying this, but this feels very much like KY GOV 2015 all over again.

Eh, Bevin campaigned like he didn’t even want to win that race and got very lucky that the national environment was as favorable for the GOP in KY. Gianforte is an infinitely better candidate than Bevin and also faces much stronger headwinds.

What is the reputation of Emerson generally? This poll seems to lean R by 6-10 points from where I would put these races. I can't believe Bullock would go from 6 points up to 6 points down just because he asked people to wear masks (no one is even enforcing the mask mandate).

Where was the Congressional poll?

Admittedly Cooney is running an extremely flaccid campaign. Maybe the "never had a real job" attack ads are hurting him more than we thought.

Emerson isn’t the best pollster (to say the least) and I agree that those numbers are too Republican (although not by as much as you think), but I don’t buy that Bullock was ever ahead by 6 or 7 points. I know MSU Bozeman did well in 2018, but I’d rather trust PPP here. Then again, MT polling has been a disappointment in recent election cycles.

They didn’t poll MT-AL.

I think the taxing insider / career politician ("Career Cooney") attacks (with some underlying suggestions that he’s corrupt) are even more effective. This is one of the very few lines of attack which really seem to stick, and they also hurt Blunt and Nelson. For all the obsession with that race on this forum, this election actually does remind me a lot of FL-SEN 2018.
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