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October 26, 2020, 06:50:13 PM
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  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  2020 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  MT-Emerson: Gianforte +9
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Author Topic: MT-Emerson: Gianforte +9  (Read 580 times)
Panda Express
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« on: August 03, 2020, 11:19:50 AM »

Gianforte: 50%
Cooney: 41%

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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #1 on: August 03, 2020, 11:33:28 AM »

Cooney is done
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President Johnson
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« Reply #2 on: August 03, 2020, 03:34:58 PM »
« Edited: August 03, 2020, 03:39:19 PM by President Johnson »

Oh come on, Montana, you really want this body slamming carpetbagger? But it's still Emerson, so people shouldn't overreact.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #3 on: August 03, 2020, 04:06:37 PM »

Looks like Cooper is the best Gov Ds have of winning
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Hardcore Sen. Peters/Daines/Cornyn/Perdue supporter
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« Reply #4 on: August 03, 2020, 09:17:14 PM »

Cut that margin in half and itís believable. Not an insurmountable lead, but also not easy to overcome against a well-funded and well-known opponent whoís in constant campaign mode. Tilt R.

Oh come on, Montana, you really want this body slamming carpetbagger? But it's still Emerson, so people shouldn't overreact.

And yet Cooney is struggling to close the gap against this "body slamming carpetbagger" even though (a) heís running in a massive Democratic wave year in which the incumbent Republican Senator is in danger of losing his seat and Trump is at best winning the state by half his 2016 margin, (b) itís been 20 years since a Republican last won a gubernatorial election and the 16 years of Democratic rule have generally been well received, (c) no other candidate has been attacked more over the past four years than Gianforte (including this year, even during the R primary when Fox tried to save his campaign by going negative on him), (d) the outgoing Democratic governor is very popular and the current administration (in which Cooney is serving as Lieutenant Governor) has for the most part received high marks for its response to the pandemic, (e) Cooney has had the advantage of having decades-long ties to the MDP party apparatus, (f) Gianforte is more conservative than any other Republican nominee for governor (and arguably even Senate) in recent memory.

Maybe this "body slamming carpetbagger" is not such an awful candidate after all and 95% of the people who are still screeching "Jersey Greg" as if that is going to sway any genuinely undecided voter were never going to vote for him anyway? Tongue MT Republicans have been burned way too often in the past with supposedly "safe" candidates who turned out to be no match for the MDP in an actual general election campaign, so thereís little appetite for that to happen again when the stakes are this high. No actual Republican cares if Gianforte is despised by 45% of the state as long as their vote doesnít count twice and he actually has what it takes to win (narrowly, but a win is a win). More controversial + less "moderate" + generating the more vocal opposition doesnít always equal less "electable", even in a competitive state.
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #5 on: August 03, 2020, 09:54:38 PM »

Can't believe I'm saying this, but this feels very much like KY GOV 2015 all over again.
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Heir of Camelot
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« Reply #6 on: August 03, 2020, 10:01:51 PM »

What is the reputation of Emerson generally? This poll seems to lean R by 6-10 points from where I would put these races. I can't believe Bullock would go from 6 points up to 6 points down just because he asked people to wear masks (no one is even enforcing the mask mandate).

Where was the Congressional poll?

Admittedly Cooney is running an extremely flaccid campaign. Maybe the "never had a real job" attack ads are hurting him more than we thought.
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Josiah Quincy Did Nothing Wrong
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« Reply #7 on: August 03, 2020, 10:48:24 PM »

What is the reputation of Emerson generally? This poll seems to lean R by 6-10 points from where I would put these races. I can't believe Bullock would go from 6 points up to 6 points down just because he asked people to wear masks (no one is even enforcing the mask mandate).

Where was the Congressional poll?

Admittedly Cooney is running an extremely flaccid campaign. Maybe the "never had a real job" attack ads are hurting him more than we thought.

The Congressional poll has Steve Bullock running behind Biden. Throw the entire thing out.
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« Reply #8 on: August 04, 2020, 12:15:08 AM »

Can't believe I'm saying this, but this feels very much like KY GOV 2015 all over again.

Eh, Bevin campaigned like he didnít even want to win that race and got very lucky that the national environment was as favorable for the GOP in KY. Gianforte is an infinitely better candidate than Bevin and also faces much stronger headwinds.

What is the reputation of Emerson generally? This poll seems to lean R by 6-10 points from where I would put these races. I can't believe Bullock would go from 6 points up to 6 points down just because he asked people to wear masks (no one is even enforcing the mask mandate).

Where was the Congressional poll?

Admittedly Cooney is running an extremely flaccid campaign. Maybe the "never had a real job" attack ads are hurting him more than we thought.

Emerson isnít the best pollster (to say the least) and I agree that those numbers are too Republican (although not by as much as you think), but I donít buy that Bullock was ever ahead by 6 or 7 points. I know MSU Bozeman did well in 2018, but Iíd rather trust PPP here. Then again, MT polling has been a disappointment in recent election cycles.

They didnít poll MT-AL.

I think the taxing insider / career politician ("Career Cooney") attacks (with some underlying suggestions that heís corrupt) are even more effective. This is one of the very few lines of attack which really seem to stick, and they also hurt Blunt and Nelson. For all the obsession with that race on this forum, this election actually does remind me a lot of FL-SEN 2018.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #9 on: August 04, 2020, 01:07:19 AM »

Daines and Gianforte are much stronger than Ds anticipated, I give credit to Daines for holding on against Bullock. He was behind at the beginning of the campaign.  Daines is the Rob Portman, comebacker of 2020, just like Portman did against Strickland
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« Reply #10 on: August 04, 2020, 06:07:46 PM »

New Poll: Montana Governor by Emerson College on 2020-08-02

Summary: D: 41%, R: 50%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #11 on: August 05, 2020, 09:44:01 AM »

Lean R. The margin is a bit too large I guess, but seems like Dems are finally running out of luck in MT-gov races. Gianforte is probably going to win even if Bullock manages to oust Daines.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #12 on: August 05, 2020, 09:54:35 AM »

What's the state of the other statewide races? Also how old is the Dem AG candidate? He could easily pass for a college student.
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Xing
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« Reply #13 on: August 06, 2020, 12:35:38 PM »

Since this poll also has Daines up 6, itís almost certainly too favorable to Gianforte, but this is looking more like Lean R than a Toss-Up. Kudos to MTTreasurer for correctly predicting that the Senate race would be more likely to go Democratic.
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solidcoalition
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« Reply #14 on: August 06, 2020, 09:55:34 PM »

Seems too favorable towards Giandorte. MT is the home of Tester and Brian Schweitzer and blue dogs.
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