Ron Paul goes Libertarian in 2012

[defe07]

Hi guys!

I was assuming what if Ron Paul had decided to continue his 2012 Presidential run as a Libertarian in 2012 after the Republican National Convention. He decides to choose Gary Johnson as his VP pick and the third party rumor was well known in the Ron Paul circles, which brought unexpected enthusiasm in the last primaries.

What would the electoral vote, popular vote and electoral map look like in this Paul/Johnson vs Romney/Ryan vs Obama/Biden clash? 😎🙂

[Orwell]

He doesn't win a single state, he draws in 3-4% of the popular vote for the Libertarian ticket, and he leads to Romney losing North Carolina.

[Chips]

He doesn't win a single state, he draws in 3-4% of the popular vote for the Libertarian ticket, and he leads to Romney losing North Carolina.

And Romney gaining Ohio.

[Alben Barkley]

He doesn't win a single state, he draws in 3-4% of the popular vote for the Libertarian ticket, and he leads to Romney losing North Carolina.

Why does Romney win Ohio here?

[Orwell]

He doesn't win a single state, he draws in 3-4% of the popular vote for the Libertarian ticket, and he leads to Romney losing North Carolina.

And Romney gaining Ohio.

He doesn't win a single state, he draws in 3-4% of the popular vote for the Libertarian ticket, and he leads to Romney losing North Carolina.

Why does Romney win Ohio here?

That's on me I changed it on accident Obama should have won Ohio

[NewYorkExpress]

I don't think Paul would go Libertarian in 2012, but if he did, he probably would have had to drop out before the Iowa Caucuses to have any realistic chance of getting any serious votes.

Paul drains just enough votes from Romney in Texas to make the outcome there uncertain, but  Romney would probably win it.

Obama easily has enough electoral votes to win otherwise, and even flips North Carolina from the IRL 2012 map thanks to Paul's presence on the ballot.

Obama/Biden 366 Electoral Votes 53%
Romney/Ryan 134 Electoral Votes 41%
Ron Paul/Gary Johnson 0 Electoral Votes 7%
Tossup 38 Electoral Votes

[Chips]

Obama perhaps holds onto NC by 1%. No changes otherwise.

[Agonized-Statism]

Ron Paul would be as big a factor as Perot with the following he had. He boosts turnout and peels off a lot of future Obama-Trump voters, which might be enough to swing, say, Florida to Romney.

[BigVic]

Ron Paul will take plenty of votes from Mitt and play spoiler role so Obama with his 2008 map plus AZ

[NHI]

Obama: 370

Romney: 168

MT/MO razor-close, but go to Romney. GA is decided by 1-2%